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PGA Wyndham Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

Course

Sedgefield Country Club

Location

Greensboro, NC

Date

6 August 2026

2026-08-06

America/New_York

This week’s free pick

Our free pick for Wyndham Championship 2026 is Ben Griffin at 22/1(+2200).

Course Overview

Contested annually on the Donald Ross-designed course at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., the Wyndham Championship was founded in 1938 and is the 7th oldest event on the PGA TOUR excluding the Majors.

Playing to approximately 7,131 yards at par 70 through a beautiful Piedmont North Carolina parkland setting with firm, fast Bentgrass greens in the August heat.

The tournament enjoys a rich 85-year history, including former winners like Sam Snead, Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Gary Player and Seve Ballesteros. The Wyndham Championship is one of two regular-season PGA TOUR events contested on a course originally designed by Donald Ross.

The 2026 tournament, set for August 5-9, will mark the 87th edition of North Carolina’s oldest professional golf event when in 2007, Sedgefield Country Club restored its Donald Ross-designed gem to its original design and lengthened it to accommodate the modern PGA TOUR golfer.

The $3 million restoration process, led by Donald Ross course restoration expert Kris Spence, took 10 months to complete and resulted in a classic course covering some 7,117 yards and playing to a par 70. In 2008, after more than 3 decades at Forest Oaks, the Wyndham Championship went home to one of the courses on which it began.

Few tournaments have the storylines the Wyndham Championship enjoys each August. As the final tournament of the PGA TOUR regular season, the Wyndham Championship plays an important role in:

  • Determining the 70 players who qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs.
  • In addition will help determine the 50 players who qualify for the 2026 signature events for $20 Million purses after reaching the second FedEx Cup Playoff event.

 

Par 70

Hole 1 – Par 4 · Yards 418

A drive near the fairway bunker 290 yards from the tee will leave the best angle of approach with a middle iron.

Hole 2 – Par 4 · Yards 442

Players tee shot will require a slight fade over the middle of 3 diagonal cross bunkers to set up the shortest and best line into a green that’s well-protected on the right by a creek.

Hole 3 – Par 3 · Yards 174

This mid-length par 3 hole is generally played into the prevailing wind and contains 3 of the deepest bunkers on the course, short and right.

Hole 4 – Par 4 · Yards 428

A blind tee shot to a left-to-right sloping fairway, the best line favours the left side, the bunker less green is one of the most undulating & demanding on the course, requiring a very precise wedge-iron shot.

Hole 5 – Par 5 · Yards 529

The 1st par 5 & very reachable in 2 shots. The strategy on this hole is finding a level lie in the well-undulating fairway. Any shot hit short of this green will roll well back down the fairway.

Hole 6 – Par 4 · Yards 423

A downhill tee shot to a fairway crossed by a creek at 280 yards, positioning the ball left of centre nearest the creek will provide best angle to the front sloping green. One of the most difficult holes on the course.

Hole 7 – Par 3 · Yards 223

The green is guarded by a creek on the left side & par is a good score.

Hole 8 – Par 4 · Yards 374

Players who play right of the creek near the 2 fairway bunkers a distinct advantage with big bombers going for this green, good birdie opportunity.

Hole 9 – Par 4 · Yards 416

A left-to-right tee shot near the deep fairway bunker 275 yards from the tee sets up nicely to allow an aggressive iron shot onto the green, Par is a good result.

Hole 10 – Par 4 · Yards 440

A long tee shot positioned near the fairway bunker on the left towards the most severe green on the course awaits the approach shot, past years have seen many players go too long & bogey this hole.

Hole 11 – Par 4 · Yards 486

The fairway will kick a right-to-left tee shot into the left- hand rough with the best strategy landing a long to middle iron just over the approach bunker 25 yards short right of the green.

Hole 12 – Par 3 · Yards 235

The longest par 3 with anything short will roll well back from the green and require a difficult up and down with scoring par around 70% and the odd birdie on 12.

Hole 13 – Par 4 · Yards 405

The left side of the landing area funnels into the left rough, leaving a blind approach over 2 cross bunkers. The best strategy is playing right of the fairway which sets up the best angle on approach.

Hole 14 – Par 4 · Yards 505

A right-to-left tee shot over the fairway bunker at 275 yards will set up shot 2 on the largest green on the course however it is the most difficult to putt due to its severe slope from back right to front left.

Hole 15 – Par 5 · Yards 545

The downhill tee shot must avoid the “sheep’s” fescue grass to the right & just over the bunker. With deep bunkers surrounding all sides of the green the far back right corner pin is the most difficult.

Hole 16 – Par 3 · Yards 175

Players can attack this flag with higher % greens in regulation players able to find the pin as there is 2 x 4-foot-deep pot bunkers guarding the green.

Hole 17 – Par 4 · Yards 406

A short wedge-iron approach into the smallest green on the course will require a smooth touch as players will scramble to find an even lie on this undulating fairway, it is a birdie scoring opportunity.

Hole 18 – Par 4 · Yards 507

The members par 5 turned into this very long par 4, The Championship hole is a tee shot to the crest of the downhill-sloping fairway that then leaves an uphill long iron or fairway metal into this severely undulating hilltop green. The courses most difficult hole location is atop a large roll into the back right corner of the green. Birdies very tough to achieve.

What to Look For

The season-ending contest creates enormous drama as players fight to secure their playoff berths. Ross’s greens demand precise approach angles, and Bentgrass putting is the final critical skill. Past champions include Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Brandt Snedeker, and Davis Love III.

Tips Coming: Full selections and analysis, from our chief analyst MJ, will be published Wednesday 05 August 2026 approx 3pm AEST ahead of the event tee-off.

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.
Competitor Tip Type Odds Units Result Rationale
Hideki Matsuyama Win 22/1(+2200) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 25th x SG: Total
  • 22nd x SG: Tee to Green
  • 113th x SG: Off the Tee
  • 74th x Driving Accuracy @ 60.90%
  • 29th x SG: Approach the Green
  • 103rd x Greens in Regulation @ 65.64%
  • 8th x SG: Around the Green
  • 78th x SG: Putting
  • 19/19 Cuts Made in 2026 for 100%

We selected HM last week @ $32 and his best day was clearly on the final day with a closing 64 (-6), He would be one of the inform players currently on tour without winning, you can go in for a deeper dive as there is a lot of Analysis from both the PGA 3M Open & PGA Rocket Classic.

If he can keep the ball in the fairways like we saw last week as this course is the 9th most penalised on PGA circuit when finding the rough (left or right)-

  • T20 x Driving Accuracy @ 73.21% (41/56)

1 unit on HM on betfair who is around $24 and firming in from $34 in the last 36 hours.

The strategy this week is-

20 players = 16 units total (12 players x 1 unit + 8 players x 0.5 units = 16 units) with 13.6% of field.

 

Ryan Gerard Win 30/1(+3000) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 20th x SG: Total
  • 43rd x SG: T2G
  • 54th x SG: OTT
  • 37th x DA @ 63.26%
  • 24th x SG: APG
  • 62nd x GIR @ 67.38%
  • 124th x SG: ARG
  • 21st x SG: PUT
  • 19/22 Cuts Made in 2026 for 86.4%

“The Sniper” to be fair last week @ PGA Rocket Classic we were expecting more and the 69 (-1) on day 3 slowed down his progress, the day 4 effort of 67 (-3) was not good enough.

It was his putting that enabled him to finish T8 @ -12 and perhaps due to PGT discovering this player (before all the hype) we just expect more.

RG is “Mr Golf” as he moulds everything based on stats and if he maintains last week in and around the green, he will be in a serious position to challenge.

  • 5th x SG: Putting @ +7.209 after 72 holes

RG was ranked 1st in putting on day 1 but he just held even play for the next 54 holes, he will be very eager to start quickly and prove his recent run of form is no fluke, unlike many on the bubble he is a high 16th on FedEx points and has already qualified for both the PGA BMW & TOUR Championships.

On betfair he is around $30 after a slight drift from $28, unlike Hideki & few others in our roster this week he can start quickly.

 

 

 

 

Ben Griffin Win 34/1(+3400) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 33rd x SG: Total
  • 68th x SG: T2G
  • 106th x SG: OTT
  • 68th x DA @ 61.07%
  • 110th x SG: APG
  • 71st x GIR @ 67.04%
  • 6th x SG: ARG
  • 20th x SG: PUT
  • 17/22 Cuts Made in 2026 for 77.3%

Last week was a shock for all supporters of Benny & the Jets so usually when he is cut, he bounces back hard & sometimes players coast mentally, his last few results after being cut-

  • T17 @ US Open (Major)
  • T28 @ PGA Texas Children’s Open
  • T11 @ PGA 2025 Wyndham Championships

Some of what we sent out for the PGA Rocket and why we like him this week even after the cut.

PGA Rocket Classic

Last 6 events

  • 4/6 x SG: Off the tee
  • 6/6 x SG: Approach the greens
  • 6/6 x SG: Around the greens
  • 3/6 x SG: Putting

The putting stats are better than his last 6 events though as he has +SG: PUT in 18 of his last 25 starts and does sit a high 20th in putting amongst all PGA Tour players.

If we are to be critical his only blemish was @ the PGA Memorial in early June where he shot a 74 (+2) on day 1 followed by a 77 (+5) on day 2 to be CUT, we consider this an off weekend considering he has made 80% of cuts in 2026.

To compare how & what happened on that weekend consider Rickie Fowler who was +17 for the 36 holes, crazy right? Fowler has since finished T38, T15 & T18, so players can juts have off weekends, it is when they do this for 3 to 4 events is the worry.

We are expecting a hard bounce back- BG is also like most in the betting that are short in that they are well within the FedEx points bubble (T70) will get you qualified for all the 2027 signature events & of course T50 is end of year PGA TOUR Championships.

After opening as short as $22 he found solid support around $28, I was pleasantly surprised to see as much as $34 on betfair. Try & get matched for +$40.

 

 

Tom Kim Win 34/1(+3400) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 24th x SG: Total
  • 14th x SG: T2G
  • 95th x SG: OTT
  • 31st x DA @ 63.83%
  • 5th x SG: APG
  • 39th x GIR @ 68.95%
  • 29th x SG: ARG
  • 100th x SG: PUT
  • 16/19 Cuts Made in 2026 for 84.2%

After finding TK recently it also franked the follow the players inform from previous events (there are so many other factors to consider) but since the victory TK has-

  • T20 @ PGA 3M Open with 68, 69, 67, 66 for -14
  • Cut @ The OPEN Championships

It is important to note that putting was the cause of TK being cut over the pond & honestly, we did not expect too much so soon after the victory in Scotland.

There were positive signs @ PGA 3M Open though with a final day 65 (-5) a highlight-

  • 27th x SG: OTT @ +1.338
  • T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 73.21% (41/56)
  • 20th x SG: APG @ +4.130
  • T49 x GIR @ 70.83% (51/72)
  • SG: ARG @ +2.778
  • 10TH x Scrambling @ 76.19% (16/21)
  • 53rd x SG: PUT losing -2.214 strokes
  • T20 x SG: Total @ +6.031

A few factors that we liked seeing is the scrambling from TK that was very good around TPC Twin Cities and his usually very good par 4 scoring overall should set him up well this week-

  • 5th x par 4 scoring @ 3.96

The course this week has 12 par 4s so players who are not giving away shots on the par 4 holes will be better placed.

TK is also advancing to both the BMW & TOUR Championships as he is currently 34th, he will be mindful of his previous putting woes so all eyes on TK around the greens. After opening around $28 as soon as markets were released on Monday night (AEST) he was on a drift to the now $34 on betfair, I did see $38 early this morning.

 

 

Aaron Rai Win 40/1(+4000) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 36th x SG: Total
  • 19th x SG: T2G
  • 57th x SG: OTT
  • 2nd x DA @ 71.70%
  • 25th x SG: APG
  • 20th x GIR @ 69.78%
  • 49th x SG: ARG
  • 103rd x SG: PUT
  • 11/16 Cuts Made in 2026 for 68.75%

This Englishman has always been one of the more accurate ball strikers on both the DP World tour & PGA & is often interviewed explaining he has always been working on his putting.

Despite being ranked 103rd amongst all PGA players for putting we have seen when he is on around the greens, he is as good as the game’s elite putters when on song, it is something to watch as you want to see on day 1 that he is sinking more putts than he is missing.

His putting was impressive as he proved he wanted to claim his 1st major @ PGA Championships and his eagle on the 9th par 5 proved this. **AR went on to putt a 68-footer on the 17th par 3, that alone was possibly the best putt I have seen.

Since his 1st major win AR has been steady with 3 results from his next 6 events-

  • T30 @ PGA Travelers Championships
  • T11 @ US Open
  • T19 @ PGA Memorial

At first glance you could say he was disappointing missing both cuts at the recent Genesis Scottish Open & The Open Championships but due to his 1st major win the media just swarmed him, and he was not in comfortable territory.

It has been 3 weeks since so a nice break to reset his game and around a course this week that accuracy is a premium attribute he can set up his 2nd & 3rd shots with his accurate ball striking, as long as he converts more putts than he misses he will be a contender.

  • 2nd x Driving accuracy @ 71.70% (499 of 696 fairways found)

We like him more than HM & around $40 on betfair currently after drifting from $32 it is because of his accurate ball striking, he can really be competitive, he is also currently 34th on FedEx points so already qualified for the PGA BMW he will want to be at the end of TOUR Championship. At $40 he is value.

 

 

 

 

Alex Fitzpatrick Win 46/1(+4600) 1.00 LOSS

PGA Travelers Championship

  • T7 x SG: Total @ +7.083
  • 16th x SG: OTT @ +1.730
  • T5 x DA @ 82.14% (46/56)
  • 5TH x SG: APG @ +5.518
  • T6 x GIR @ 81.94%
  • 33rd x SG: ARG @ +0.254
  • 39th x SG: PUT losing -0.420 strokes
  • 9/10 Cuts Made in 2026 for 90%

I started my analysis from late Monday night into early Tuesday morning & I wish I had jumped on the $75 I saw early on betfair.

After watching AF on DPWT it was no real shock when he won in India back in late March but he actually “pulled more than his weight” when the Fitzy brothers claimed the PGA Zurich (we know as we had the Norwegians) by 1 shot, a very good birdie from nowhere but since those back-to-back wins he has been on a heater with-

  • T7 @ PGA Travelers
  • T23 @ US Open
  • T20 @ PGA RBC Canadian open
  • T6 @ PGA Memorial
  • T75 @ PGA Masters
  • T4 @ PGA Truist
  • T9 @ PGA Cadillac
  • 1st @ PGA Zurich New Orleans
  • 1st @ DPWT HERO Indian Open

AF can lean on his very good wedge & iron play around the demanding Sedgefield Country Club & he went close around Quail Hollow which both QH & Harbour Town links are course with heavily treed fairways where accuracy is a premium.

  • Driving accuracy @ 82.14% (46/56 fairways) @ PGA Travelers

Before teeing off AF is 19th on FedEx points so he has booked the next 3 weeks, and he is another player that will appreciate the lesser media attention now he is back on USA soil & we expect him to be in the mix with 18 holes to go.

Looking on betfair now he has settled around $46 to $48, I did see $50 on betfair in the wee hours of this morning, he no doubt will be a favourite with other analysts but despite his firming price he has proven he belongs on PGA tour.

 

 

Harris English Win 50/1(+5000) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 43rd x SG: Total
  • 78th x SG: T2G
  • 37th x SG: OTT
  • 40th x DA @ 63.11%
  • 129th x SG: APG
  • 68th x GIR @ 67.08%
  • 57th x SG: ARG
  • 23rd x SG: PUT
  • 15/19 Cuts Made in 2026 for 78.9%

For those that have been with PGT for a while we have been on & off HE for a while and there is some very insightful analysis on the website on “his consistency”.

That “consistency” had yielded 10 x T25 from 15 events excluding the 2 events over the pond & we are the first forgive poorer results as some players can be hit or miss in Scotland &England

Do we think his current price is value “NO”, but he has a game that does suit Sedgefield as he can be consistent finding fairways & unlike a few players that can “run hot” with the flatstick he is in the T25 in 2026 in putting.

We think he can get back to his usual game, and he only must tweak a few minor strokes gained metrics to be a serious contender, his game can never be discounted but we do not see any great value around $50 on betfair.

His fair price is that $65 to $75 range & why we included him despite not considering him as value is of his previous very consistent form & he is 49th in FedEx so he knows he needs a good result to book a spot in the T50 for end of season event.

 

Maverick McNealy Win 55/1(+5500) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 23rd x SG: Total
  • 53rd x SG: T2G
  • 67th x SG: OTT
  • 119th x DA @ 57.35%
  • 107th x SG: APG
  • 91st x GIR @ 66.34%
  • 18th x SG: ARG
  • 17th x SG: PUT
  • 16/18 Cuts Made in 2026 for 88.88%

Mav is a player we have had high hopes for but also, we only have ever selected him less than a handful of times.

He has improved to sit 35th in par 4 scoring @ 3.99 but he is most reliable around the greens & is one of the more reliable putters overall.

  • 8 of his last 10 events in +SG: PUT

His effort at his most recent @ PGA 3M open was better than it first reads as he was good on day 2 with a 66 (-5) & day 4, 64 (-7) as he finished T34 with -11-

3M Open

  • 39th x SG: OTT @ +0.666
  • T24 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.64% (39/56)
  • 42nd x SG: APG @ +0.769
  • 55th x SG: ARG losing -1.623 strokes
  • 19th x SG: PUT @ +3.220
  • T34 x SG: Total @ +3.031

What does standout is Mav lost strokes around the greens, unlike his usual consistent self but the focus on finding fairways very deliberate & evident.

He does not need to change his game too much for this weekend, we will see though how he responds to pressure as he is currently on the T50 bubble for the end of season TOUR championships being 50th. A big result this weekend will lock it all in & all MM needs to do is get his 2nd & 3rd wedge play in check and his putting convert birdies.

Another player we like around $55 on betfair, try matching for that $60-$70 range but all we want to see is a good safe start on pace.

 

Brian Harman Win 65/1(+6500) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 79th x SG: Total
  • 84th x SG: T2G
  • 130th x SG: OTT
  • 32nd x DA @ 63.65%
  • 61st x SG: APG
  • 120th x GIR @ 65.07%
  • 51st x SG: ARG
  • 73rd x SG: PUT
  • 16/20 Cuts Made in 2026 for 80%

We have stuck with the “lefty” after a good push from him when selected @ $100 for PGA 3M Open, he gave it a good nudge with a T3, but I liked his last 3 days that really saw very consistent golf on display with rounds of 64, 66, 65.

Some of what we highlighted when @ $100 for that event-

3M Open

Last 6 events

  • 3/6 x SG: Off the tee
  • 3/6 x SG: Approach the greens
  • 4/6 x SG: Around the greens
  • 4/6 x SG: Putting

We just think after BH now has had 10 of his last 13 events in +SG: PUT it will instil a greater confidence around a course where he has played zero times, sometimes this only helps and he has always been consistent of the tee with his game improving dramatically since the PGA HERO World Challenge in December up till the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational.

**That run from December to March saw BH only achieve 11/35 (31.4%) in strokes gained metrics which PGT measure (7 events) compared to 44/65 (67.7&) in 13 events from march to now in July.

We want to stick with BH for this weekend & he will need another weekend like @ 3M open as he sits @ 63rd in FedEx points so nothing really is locked in for the BMW or the TOUR Championships, we tipped him and stayed true based on our database model, he will need to “get after it” this weekend.

After opening much lower on betfair around $50 he has not had much support & there is plenty on betfair around +$65, try for well above. He was only beaten by a very weekend only hot #1 amateur in the world @ TPC Twin cities.

I also like the break missing the PGA Rocket last week, most would say he can ill afford to miss an event to earn valuable points but his game looks right where he wants it. Very nicely priced.

 

 

Ryo Hisatsune Win 70/1(+7000) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 48th x SG: Total
  • 28th x SG: T2G
  • 30th x SG: OTT
  • 36th x DA @ 63.92%
  • 43rd x SG: APG
  • 6th x GIR @ 70.99%
  • 89th x SG: ARG
  • 109th x SG: PUT
  • 21/22 Cuts Made in 2026 for 95.4%

This young Japanese player was on our radar a good 12 months before most analysts even knew who he was in USA. If you go back and look at his result from this event in 2024 you knew he would be highly competitive-

  • T3 @ 2024 PGA Wyndham Championships

Most of his game through 2024 & even 2025 he was hit or miss but what we really have seen massive improvement is how consistent and more composed he is (he was 21, 2 yrs ago) but making 95% of cuts on the PGA tour in 2026 must be satisfying for the now 23 yr old.

95% making cuts is super impressive.

His best most recent result came from the PGA John Deere Classic-

  • 24TH x SG: OTT @ +1.455
  • T51 x DA @ 60.71% (34/56)
  • 29th x SG: APG @ +2.479
  • T45 x GIR @ 72.22% (52/72)
  • 19th x SG: ARG @ +1.796
  • 23rd x SG: PUT @ +3.179
  • T9 x SG: Total @ +8.910

Ryo has had 2 x T50 since which looks ordinary, but his wedge & iron play has never faulted, and he now has been in +SG: APG in 20 of his last 25 events in 2026.

His focus has been to maintain his green play, but his overall game has really accelerated in 2026 and his 28th in strokes gained tee to green is testament to this and he has openly stated that the “signature events” in 2025 really toughened him up mentally.

Often a quick and reliable starter his game is going well but he does still find himself on the bubble even @ 44th in FedEx points, he will be mindful he still needs a high finish to lock in 2027 signature events.

We want to see a quick start from the rising Japanese star & it did not surprise us he is around $70 on betfair & firm since opening around $65. We do a lot of comparisons like player v player and as much as we like Michael Brennan who is a similar price we cannot entertain the young American who has been in good positions of late to struggle late.

Of note last week winner Michael Thorbjornsen could not finish under 70 in 75% of his events in 2026, he was only $23 to win before teeing off on day 4. I just get tired of reading all the “gushing” from journalists, had you backed him in 75% of those previous events you would be in massive losses.

We do still prefer Bud Cauley over Ryo but we are also mindful that in 2026 that there have been 5 first time winners on PGA tour

 

 

Bud Cauley Win 95/1(+9500) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 63rd x SG: Total
  • 25th x SG: T2G
  • 75th x SG: OTT
  • 88th x DA @ 59.62%
  • 45th x SG: APG
  • 75th x GIR @ 66.90%
  • 23rd x SG: ARG
  • 137th x SG: PUT
  • 16/19 Cuts Made in 2026 for 84.2%

The story was good when he won the PGA RBC Canadian Open in mid-June and he has always sat very high up the rankings in our PGT database and I will declare that Bud us unlike most of these KFT players that will never win on PGA tour.

Since the 1st PGA win Bud has gone about his business well with making 3 cuts from his last 4 events-

  • T18 @ The OPEN Championships
  • T14 @ PGA Travelers
  • T56 @ US Open

Although missing the cut @ Genesis Scottish Open, he was very good bouncing back @ The OPEN and his game is in a very sweet spot presently-

  • 25 from 32 positive strokes gained metrics we measure for 78.2%

The strokes gained metrics could easily be closer to 90% had it not been for 4 metrics being less than -0.40 strokes lost.

For the first time in a long time Bud now sits firmly safe in 33rd for FedEx points so he should be able to play freely this weekend & of note when we were comparing courses, he did have a strong-

  • 75% driving accuracy @ Harbour Town links with 42/56 fairways found

After witnessing his strong wedge & iron play in Canada he was putting well & like many players when their game is flowing, they are more likely to sink more putts than not so I am surprised he is a healthy $95 on betfair after opening shorter around $60.

We liked him @ $65 so no need to say more.

 

 

Alex Noren Win 95/1(+9500) 1.00 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 60th x SG: Total
  • 114th x SG: T2G
  • 115th x SG: OTT
  • 28th x DA @ 64.55%
  • 116th x SG: APG
  • 114th x GIR @ 65.26%
  • 62nd x SG: ARG
  • 7th x SG: PUT
  • 13/18 Cuts Made in 2026 for 72.22%

We return to selecting the Swede who honestly you must keep thinking how has he won 12 x DP events and is still “0” in PGA events.

We selected AN for the 2026 The OPEN Championships and please look up on the website the analysis as it is incredibly deep because we believe he is close to breaking through.

The OPEN

What we sent out for the Swede last week when $260 @ Genesis Scottish Open.

2026 PGA stats-

  • 50th x SG: Total
  • 96th x SG: T2G
  • 96th x SG: OTT
  • 21st x DA @ 65.66%
  • 143rd x DD @ 284.50 yards (avg)
  • 106th x SG: APG
  • 112th x GIR @ 64.52%
  • 59th x SG: ARG
  • 10th x SG: PUT
  • 12/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 75%

The swede could be the most frustrating player currently in the 130 player PGT database, simply put he is world class with zero question of that fact & he has been a bit of a thorn in our side because we tipped him before he won the 2025 DPWT Betfred British Masters, Which was of no real surprise as advised we tipped him not long before that but he then really got under my skin when he won only 3 weeks later @ BMW PGA Championships, not to be confused with other events this is held at Wentworth GC in England.

Wyndham Championships

His -6 @ PGA Travelers was really an insane good finish & why he is included here this week in Scotland as he will be more comfortable than most the visiting USA players.

For the record he was-

  • 12th x Scrambling @ 72.00% (18/25)

His best result in the last 2 years in Scotland was a T10 in 2024 and was cut in 2025, but he usually bypassed the event before 2022 but of the 12 measured rounds he still does have a +0.63 strokes gained each round.

In our analysis we even compared on how he was 6 shots better than Ryan Fox, but we are very mindful he must get his wedge & iron play in check.

He did pick up +1.43 shots on avg in SG: APG @ The OPEN & he will need to maintain this but he must be included for many reasons, he is world class, he can hit around 65% of fairways as he sits @ 28th in driving accuracy across all of 2026 but it is his putting-

  • 7th in SG: PUT amongst all PGA players in 2026

We like when players only must make slight adjustments to other areas of their game, around $95 for the Swede is just to enticing as value hunters.

Noren is 48th on FedEx points he needs to slam dunk a win, not really but we will be cheering him home if he can.

He knows he is good, we know he is good he just has to get that elusive 1st PGA win out of the way, remember Tommy??? He has gone close when losing in a playoff to Hideki but our eyes will be on where he ends up off the tee where he is usually good, what he chooses to do on his 2nd & 3rd shot, if he can set them up well then his putter can do what is mostly does.

Try matching for +$120.

 

 

Emiliano Grillo Win 100/1(+10000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 95th x SG: Total
  • 75th x SG: T2G
  • 80th x SG: OTT
  • 9th x DA @ 68.99%
  • 60th x SG: APG
  • 78th x GIR @ 66.84%
  • 114th x SG: ARG
  • 112th x SG: PUT
  • 12/19 Cuts Made in 2026 for 63.15%

EG we sent out for the PGA 3M Open @ $75 and some of the analysis as you can read the full version on website-

We really like what we have seen in his last 3 events on the PGA circuit with

Last 6 events

  • 4/6 x SG: Off the tee
  • 3/6 x SG: Approach the greens
  • 2/6 x SG: Around the greens
  • 3/6 x SG: Putting

Highlighting that EG has now had 3 straight events in positive SG: PUT which tells us he has improved that aspect of his game that was his weak link.

We watched his game very closely, a few points from his T7 result as we had 4 players all within striking distance to win. This was on day 4 below-

  • 45th in hole proximity
  • 35th in SG: PUT

This was very reflective in his 69 (-2) as where on day 1 he carded 64 (-7) & day 3 a 65 (-6) and as you can see his -19 overall was only 6 shots off the eventual winner, Jackson Koivun. We have mentioned many times that it is rare to play -2 on day 4 and win an event, he needed to be more on pace with a -6 to -8.

Our hope this weekend is for EG to dig deep as he is reliable off the tee (9th overall) & usually reliable on approach, we saw @ 3M Open he sank some long-distance putts to then miss 5 footers.

A result is required as EG is now 104th on FedEx points, not only is he way off the T70 points bubble to qualify for BMW Championships he must get in T100 to qualify for the 2027 PGA season.

His accuracy off the tee will keep him in the hunt here and around $100 on betfair now he did open as short as $70 only 2 days ago but with a lot going on the best version can win but we do prefer others.

0.5 units x outright win

 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Win 100/1(+10000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 26th x SG: Total
  • 60th x SG: T2G
  • 135th x SG: OTT
  • 34th x DA @ 63.48%
  • 26th x SG: APG
  • 51st x GIR @ 68.33%
  • 39th x SG: ARG
  • 19th x SG: PUT
  • 17/20 Cuts Made in 2026 for 85%

“Boofhead” my endearing term for this South African must of being tipped by a few analysts lately as I saw $140 then $120 only last night which does annoy me.

However, CB would come up on many radars as he does sit well in the rankings in par 4 scoring amongst other stats.

  • 5th x par 4 scoring @ 3.96

Around a course where there is only 4 par 3s & only 2 par 5s the course will challenge those who struggle to at least score par with 12 par 4s (66.66%) but we have followed CB for the last 5 years and he has always been ranked in out T130 player database mainly because he is usually a good putter.

More recently I had eyes on his play @ the double header, PGA Myrtle Beach (same weekend as Truist) which oddly enough Aaron Rai struggled around the Dunes & Beach GC before winning his 1st major, around this course though I thought CB had moments and was close enough on Sunday to win as he entered the day in T7 @ -11, the winner won with -18 (Brandt Snedeker) but CB only carded a 68 (-3) which was not even on pace for the final 18 holes.

His effort better than a pass but he only found 50% of fairways yet near 80% of GIRs, since Myrtle Beach though he has made 8 of 9 cuts and has been in +SG metrics in +65%.

Normally very reliable off the tee and his best is putting, this course sets up nicely despite struggling after making the cut here in 2025.

We must accept around $100 on betfair but have him priced more closer to $160 so try getting matched on betfair closer to that.

Currently 92nd on FedEx points he needs a big result.

0.5 units x outright win

 

Eric Cole Win 110/1(+11000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 45th x SG: Total
  • 103rd x SG: T2G
  • 151st x SG: OTT
  • 150th x DA @ 52.33%
  • 84th x SG: APG
  • 132nd x GIR @ 64.22%
  • 11th x SG: ARG
  • 5th x SG: PUT
  • 15/21 Cuts Made in 2026 for 71.4%

I must declare for transparency reasons we did previously declare players like Alex Smalley & Eric Cole could not win when presented primal chances in 2026.

Around course though where the premium is to not only find greens but convert birdies it is more reliable sticking to players where this skill set is more natural versus players that really need to run hot over one weekend.

Enter EC, a veteran of 127 starts on PGA tour since turning pro in 2009 and is still seeking his 1st win but he has made over $14 Million proving he has made a good living from the sport, he showed us he is trying hard with 4 x T10 results from 5 events through early April to early June where he was consistently better than majority of the field.

His best result in that8 week stretch was a 2nd @ PGA Charles Schwab where he lost in a playoff to Russell Henley who had already won 5 x so it was not as if it was a rookie on tour, most players that could mean disaster but to his credit and we can be brutal in who we axe or include in our player ratings he did result in 5 of his next 7 events.

EC’s game is still looking good with-

  • 11/12 events in +SG: PUT
  • 10/12 events in +SG: ARG
  • 9/12 events in +SG: APG
  • 9/12 events in +SG: Total

The latter meaning that in all measured rounds he has not been bad losing strokes in one metric to reduce his overall total, around Sedgefield all he needs to concentrate is finding fairways, the rest of his ball striking finding greens on his 2nd & 3rd shots will be critical & then he can convert more than 80% of players in this line up.

He is one of the more stable reliable putters on tour which is over several seasons not like say a Chris Gotterup who has made massive improvements in his green play.

EC must find fairways; due to his birdie conversion (putting) he is 14th overall in 2026 he can really figure on the leaderboard early if he can just stay within the first cut of the fairway.

He is the 1st of our players reduced (will be resulted as 0.5 units) x outright win with 7 other players, after opening around $80 on betfair he is on a big drift to now $110 on betfair, of interest when he was hot with the better results he was under $55 for most events.

He is currently 45th on FedEx points so he knows he must put in a bigger effort now as there are a few leading OWGR players absent this week so his best chance to earn points to secure his passage into T50 for the last 2 events in 2026 season.

We still like Noren much more than EC here around a similar price.

 

Nick Taylor Win 120/1(+12000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 54th x SG: Total
  • 71st x SG: T2G
  • 126th x SG: OTT
  • 44th x DA @ 62.92%
  • 69th x SG: APG
  • 120th x GIR @ 65.07%
  • 22nd x SG: ARG
  • 44th x SG: PUT
  • 19/21 Cuts Made in 2026 for 90.47%

We sent out Saint Nick as a Late Mail as he was priced at massive overs @ +$600.

See analysis on website but one of the main factors why we like this Canadian is because, he sits a comfortable 56th in all of 2026 in putting which is strengthened by his last 3 events all with +strokes gained in putting & also-

  • 7/8 all in positive strokes gained putting

Last week as the “Late Mail” he started his front 9 from the 10th hole but you will never compete when you go 2 bogeys on that front 9, he tried managing that by 2 birdies to bring him back to even par for the day to then bogey the 5th & 8th hole with MJ tearing out his hair.

His 72 (+2) on day 4 will have NT hurting, we expect him to come out with  appoint to prove, he normally is very safe finding fairways with at least +60% accuracy but if he can get his ball striking hot he can go to work on the greens, it is his strength.

I thought after his lack lustre finish last week @ PGA Rocket, we would get +$200, I think the current $120 on betfair is safe but would like to see much more to validate last week’s result.

NT is 62nd on FedEx points, he is sitting within the T70 for BMW but with only the St Jude left I honestly think he will come out blazing here, if he wins here he can take next week off before the final 2 events of the 2026 season.

0.5 units a win.

Denny McCarthy Win 130/1(+13000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 89th x SG: Total
  • 129th x SG: T2G
  • 149th x SG: OTT
  • 114th x DA @ 57.68%
  • 93rd x SG: APG
  • 110th x GIR @ 65.39%
  • 81st x SG: ARG
  • 14th x SG: PUT
  • 16/21 Cuts Made in 2026 for 76.1%

We like DM due to his usually strong putting but in full transparency he is like Eric Cole and company in that he has now had 233 starts on PGA tour since 2015, that is a lot of events but his current 76% making cuts in 2026 is one of his best years to date.

Just quickly he is not like, Mark Hubbard, I honestly think DM can win one before Hubbard can, after witnessing his meltdown @ Myrtle Beach, I will never provide him as a selection, after all Hubbard is a non-winner now after 282 events.

Fast forward to the present & DM has been going well with his best results-

  • T3 @ PGA 3M Open
  • T14 @ PGA Travelers

His T3 saw DM over 4 days card rounds of 66, 68, 64, 66 for -20 but he tried hard on day 4 with his 66 (-5) which saw him lean on his best attribute his putter-

  • 1st x SG: Putting @ +7.482

Around a course where it was easier finding fairways to be honest, he still did that finding +70% in driving accuracy but if he focuses on accuracy off the tee, he will compete here based on his reliable putting.

Of note around Sedgefield, he has resulted in 3 of his past 5 with T11, T33 & T15 which may explain why his odds keep changing, he is a speculator as well where his best game will see him contend. He will have to though but he is used to pressure as most seasons he sits above the T100 bubble (was T120), currently 84th on FedEx points he is scraping in to secure his 2027 card, but I am sure he will chasing his 1st win more so.

I have seen today on betfair $170, then next time I look $130, changing as money enters the pool.

0.5 units x outright win.

 

 

Matt McCarty Win 140/1(+14000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 106th x SG: Total
  • 115th x SG: T2G
  • 119th x SG: OTT
  • 51st x DA @ 61.85%
  • 72nd x SG: APG
  • 136th x GIR @ 63.97%
  • 133rd x SG: ARG
  • 62nd x SG: PUT
  • 15/23 Cuts Made in 2026 for 65.2%

We sent MC out last week @ PGA Rocket @ $260-

From Rocket Classic summary-

Matt McCarty @ $260

Perhaps many are forgetting that this Arizonia resident carded a 63 @ Amex, a 61 @ Zurich, a 63 @ Truist, a 64 @ Charles Schwab, a 63 @ Travelers, he can shoot low and despite not backing a single day low round up he still has-

  • T2 @ PGA American Express with -23
  • T12 @ PGA RBC Heritage
  • T10 @ PGA Zurich New Orleans
  • T9 @ PGA Cadillac Championships
  • T10 @ PGA Truist

That little run was impressive and overall, he sits very comfortably in 45th on FedEx points so right now he is in the BMW Championship and right now the TOUR championship.

That would be a great achievement.

He may sit in 49th in putting for 2026 but again a closer inspection of each week in each week out shows us he is still in +SG: PUT in 19 of his last 25 events.

Another player that has us interested as he is better than +50% in all his other strokes gained metrics. If you follow the golf like us, he has led a few events and sure that has been on day 1 or 2 but he can start quickly and has shot low rounds in 5 events just in 2026.

Now it’s a matter of if he can link up a few days of solid more consistent golf, he has been good so far with 8 x T25s overall which includes 4 x T10s, he can shoot birdies so let’s hope he goes on a run.

Wyndham Championships

This week because we did not see MC shoot low or even close to it, we know that players can have off weekends, his T50 a pass @ PGA Rocket Classic only moved him back 1 spot to 46th on FedEx points so confirming he pretty much has locked in at the very least a T70 for the BMW Championships.

He is on the cusp of a T50 to qualify for the all-important TOUR Championship and also securing all signature events for 2027 where the money is + extra points.

We want to see him shoot low

After opening around $100 on betfair late Monday night AEST I did see plenty of $170 & even $180 on offer, I go back today to look, and he is only $140 now on betfair.

The exchange pool will climb considerably so he really should be closer to $200 even if you base it on last weekend. Try and get matched for more, simply put.

0.5 units x outright win

Ricky Castillo Win 180/1(+18000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 83rd x SG: Total
  • 96th x SG: T2G
  • 62nd x SG: OTT
  • 94th x DA @ 59.21%
  • 131st x SG: APG
  • 109th x GIR @ 65.40%
  • 54th x SG: ARG
  • 53rd x SG: PUT
  • 16/17 Cuts Made in 2026 for 94.1%

RC is one of our last 2 players for the Wyndham Championships and we have thrown a few speculators in because they are players who are flying under the radar, if everything clicks this weekend they can contend.

RC won his 1st PGA event @ the double header event, Puerto Rico Open in March which was the event after his very good 5th @ PGA Cognizant, his putting again on display.

The PGA Cognizant required accuracy off the tee along with good wedge & iron play and he was only ranked 23rd in SG: PUT but a better 15th in SG: APG.

From what we are tracking RC has now found his groove with 5 straight results and another player like Ryo Hisatsune who has a better than +90% making cuts.

We like him more than if comparing than say, Max Greyserman, it is something The Stig & I converse as players like Ry & Max do not play usually at events like the PGA Puerto Rico, I think more players should, it achieves winning your 1st PGA event but more importantly it gives you exemption for the next 2 years.

RC has that in the back of his mind as he tees off here, he sits in 66th in FedEx but like so many here he has secured his PGA Card until 2029 by winning @ Puerto Rico, it’s a smart move and he now sits close enough to making both the PGA BMW & Tour championships.

A win seals the deal.

Also, another player where his odds are changing often on betfair, he opened around $150 on betfair and has not drifted like most around a similar price, not sure where the support is coming from, but he is around $180 as I type this up now.

I think despite his current form trending he should really be +$220

0.5 units x outright win

Max Greyserman Win 210/1(+21000) 0.50 LOSS

PGA 2026

  • 91st x SG: Total
  • 106th x SG: T2G
  • 97th x SG: OTT
  • 147th x DA @ 52.83%
  • 117th x SG: APG
  • 126th x GIR @ 64.81%
  • 69th x SG: ARG
  • 40th x SG: PUT
  • 12/22 Cuts Made in 2026 for 54.5%

MG has had his moments and we can go as far back as a 2nd when we selected him to win the PGA Baycurrent in Japan, he should have won and to be fair he soured our opinion but despite missing to win his 1st PGA event (he has had numerous 2nds prior) he was beaten by Xander.

Since the defeat, he struggled up until better results-

  • T18 @ PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • T24 @ PGA Genesis Invitational

Those events were in late February & early March but just as he looked to gain traction, he did a “MAX” and missed 4 straight cuts.

He obviously cooled and we rated him right down on our database until he then made 4 straight cuts with decent results from the PGA Cadillac (early May) to his best result a T9 @ PGA The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (late May) he then looked back to his old tricks with 2 missed cuts before only making the cut in a further 4 from his next 8.

On courses where it looks to suit his “bomber-putt style” he did not turn up to play, he has now gone back-to-back making cuts in 2 straight events, we have seen him handle adversity very well before but we will be watching early his body language from his 1st tee shot, he will need to bring his “A” game as he sits in 99th in FedEx, he needs to at least T100 as he will have to go back to qualify for 2027.

We think he is better than that & he is our speculator this week, meaning if all goes well he has the tools to win this (he has had 5 x 2nds from the 52 events he has made the cut from) & it would be a shame to see him back with the KFT (Korn Ferry Tour gang).

His odds on betfair are all over the place and we check prices all the time, one moment he is $180 then $250, try getting matched to above +$300, we know the player he is but on disclosed form he really should sit around $300-$400 on betfair.

Reiterating for this week-

** The strategy this week is-

20 players = 16 units total (12 players x 1 unit + 8 players x 0.5 units = 16 units) with 13.6% of field.

 

#Tips Wins Units Net Profit ROI
20 0 16.00 -16.00 -100.00%