| J.J. Spaun |
Win |
15/1(+1500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Not many players in this line up can boast a better 2025 & JJ returns in a weaker field nice and fresh.
He will tee off in group 15 with another favourite; Ben Griffin & they will start from hole 10 but the earlier start could mean they avoid the early winds that can pick up on this coastal course.
What can we expect from JJ? A consistent game which in 2025 from the 24 events played he has made 20 cuts (SR @ 83.3%) & at shorter prices the goal is to get as many players as possible into day 3.
- 8th in SG: T2G
- 38th in SG: OTT
- 5th in SG: APG
- 32nd in GIR @ 68.97%
I am not too concerned that JJ sits in 83rd in SG: ARG & 70th in SG: PUT as from his last 14 events in 2025 he is-
- 7 of 14 in SG: ARG in positive strokes gained & 4 of those were only -0.004 lost
- 11 of 14 in SG: PUT positive strokes gained
He had a busy 2025 and his class can take him along way & arriving nice & fresh he really should be playing with absolutely no pressure.
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| Garrick Higgo |
Win |
32/1(+3200) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
One of the red hot in form young guns on tour presently with a WIN @ PGA Corales Puntacana in late April adding to his much earlier PGA Win @ 2021 Palmetto his last 3 events has seen him-
- T7 @ PGA Procore Championships with -14
- 2nd @ PGA Sanderson Farms with -22
- T4 @ PGA Baycurrent in Japan with -14
Those recent good results have him with 7 straight under par results.
He is playing some terrific golf & he can really sit high on the leader board this week with his strengths on APG & ARG with his putter running hot at times like we have seen.
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| Nico Echavarria |
Win |
50/1(+5000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The 31yr old from Colombia is known for his putting and I weighted him against a higher ranked putter in Taylor Montgomery who sits in 2nd amongst all PGA players in SG: PUT.
Some can excuse Montgomery in Utah but the shot link tracker had him so wayward on so many of his Tee shots even with forgiving fairways in Mexico I have to stick with safer players & also Nico has already won x 2 on PGA Tour something Montgomery does not have on his resume.
Nico this year has played in 24 events which is an average amount but of the 16 CUTS made he also has 7 x Top 25s including 1 x 2nd & 3 x Top 10s, that 2nd was in early 2025 & it was a Playoff loss to Nick Taylor.
When his Putting game is on, we expect to see him result and throughout the year he has had had some long runs of SG: Total.
8 of his last 12 events he has been in between +1.56 strokes gained to +2.37 SG which was his last appearance in Japan @ PGA Baycurrent.
I am leaning on this event as he looked to be getting back to his usually safe form.
- 8th in SG: Putting with +4.294
- 9th in SG: APG with +4.739
- T3 in SG: Total with +8.461
His only strokes lost was OTT where he lost -2.927 & with the Fairways less forgiving around here and a deep search of how many similar courses he has played (Hawaii) I think we do have to accept a cut in his Win price this week but around $50 I strongly prefer him over a player like Rico Hoey who is in form but can often be unreliable with his Putter.
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| Nick Taylor |
Win |
55/1(+5500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Another proven PGA winner who arrives nice & fresh into this and even in stronger line ups he would sit around $30 to Win so I will happily take near double his price as again his only weakness really is his OTT play.0
It is not really a weakness as he still has 7 of his last 10 PGA events in positives SG its just his Iron and ARG play is his sweet spot.
- 10 of his last 12 in SG: APG all in positives strokes
- 9 of his last 12 in SG: ARG in positives strokes
- 10 of his last 12 in SG: PUT in positives strokes gained
With the data we run against all players this slick Canadian is in +80% in positive SG he generally is super consistent & of the +40 interviews I have watched he is also super competitive and generally in this lesser fields where at least 50% of players are yet to win on PGA tour he can shine.
Yes, Saint Nick as we often refer him as is one of our favourites as he has Won 5 x PGA events but the freshen up should do him well & like Nico there are players who are half the odds of these 2 and just should not be.
Value even @ $55 & I can only speculate why the market has him this safe is only because of his absence of 10 weeks. He runs Top 20 when the Worlds best are in play so he really should compete here.
|
| Mackenzie Hughes |
Win |
80/1(+8000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Another Canadian who we selected back @ PGA Procore Championship & he resulted as a Top 10 with his T7 @ -14 after he set the pace on day 1 with an excellent 63 (-9) & it included 2 bogeys.
Day 2 was the opposite with a 74 (+2) which was a differential of +11 shots which was hard to fathom, then on day 3 he countered with a 69 & 68 to round the event out with his -14. You can go on the Pro Golf Tipping website and look up what we wrote for Hughes in past results as he was trending well.
Why we like Hughes this week in Mexico is he is proven he can score low rounds and with the daily average of -6 the target here Hughes has shot-
- 65 & 66 in 10 of his last 52 rounds played
- 67 & 68 in a further 14 rounds
With a SR of near 50% in lower rounds which against the PGA tour average of 70.46 this looks very good.
MH is known for his ARG (Around the Greens) play and is currently 20th in SG: ARG amongst all PGA players with a deeper look into his stats whilst on the green shows us-
- 14 of last 18 events all positives SG in SG: ARG
- 11 of last 18 events all positive SG: PUT with 6 of those in less than -0.025 lost
If there is a player this week that is still drifting in the market as he opened around $65 that can show up high on this weeks leader board it is him, he needs to put all 4 days together but he has already Won 2 x PGA events & so far in 2025 4 x Top 10s including 1 x 2nd & I do like the fact he has made 16 of 25 CUTS so far & 7 of his last 10 events.
That is key here this week making the Cut and playing Day 3 & beyond.
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| Matt Kuchar |
Win |
90/1(+9000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The 47-yr old veteran of 9 x PGA wins & 577 events now brings a handy 119 x Top 10 results (21% SR) into Mexico & when more than 60% of the filed struggle around greens he can revert to a strength that has him highly ranked @ 9th in PUTTING AVERAGE of all PGA players.
Currently ranked #127th in FedEx Fall points he needs a result here with 2 events to go which this week & an even lesser event than Mexico at Bermuda could be targets as last year a T30 in Mexico was nowhere as good as his T2 with a -25 in 2023.
These are events he can shine with his usually consistent-
- 24th in SG: ARG
- 14th in SG: PUT
- 41st in SG: Total which under Top 50 in all PGA over 24 years on tour
- 4th in Scrambling amongst all players
- 6th in Bogey avoidance
This week in Mexico we are banking on his experience sticking where others may find the pressure cooker too much as more than 50% of this field need dramatic results for 2026 tour cards and other incentives like AON swing.
Opened at $70 on betfair and now out to $90 I would suggest waiting as Tee off is still not for another 30 hours & better than +$100 likely.
|
| Matti Schmid |
Win |
120/1(+12000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
German player Schmid can see his focus on PGA being rewarded as he currently is 67th In FedEx points and has been rewarded with consistent finishes in 12 of his last 17 events.
He finally broke into the Top 100 in the World with his #97 in OWGR & he is getting closer to the form that saw him-
- T9 x PGA Puntacana Championships
- T7 @ PGA Myrtle Beach Classic
- 2nd x PGA Charles Schwab
- T7 X DPWT BMW Championships
- T17 x PGA-DPWT Genesis Scottish Open
He will Tee off nice & early in Group 2 and my hope is he & Ricky Castillo can learn each other's line as Castillo can start quick but fade plus also the coastal course has been known to have high winds later in the day usually (never gospel though), could there be an advantage, we will see.
He has steadily improved his Putting stats-
- 30th in SG: PUT this was as high as 88th
- 46th in GIR with70% of greens in regulation (985 of 1440)
- 22nd in Driving Distance- accuracy only Avg but he hits a good 40 yards further than most
- 1st in SG: APG from 175-200 yards
I included the latest Approach stat as he is one of the players I have watched & witnessed with my own eyes that had he made the Putt on the green rather than just miss then his SG stats would have improved significantly.
I feel he is on the cusp of a breakthrough either this week or the next but there has been no money for him as he has nearly doubled his opening price, I suggest waiting again till closer to Tee off. It is only a suggestion as some firm some drift.
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| Erik Van Rooyen |
Win |
180/1(+18000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
If you are paying close attention we have tipped EVR a few times in 2025 and he was one of our many 2nds in 2025 when @ the PGA Barracuda Championships he was unlucky not to win as eventual winner Ryan Gerard was saved by a tree, had it not bounced off a branch back onto the fairway he was looking at a 2 stoke penalty, which would have been a loss instead of a win.
EVR is better known for his Iron play & I prefer that he is concentrating on the PGA tour than DPWT as he has proven with his now 2 x 1sts on PGA he deserves to be here.
At the time of typing up the analysis he was $230 and next time I looked he was $180 so he is yet to stabilize in the market.
I will not go into stats too greatly as he was selected @ Sanderson Farm after a good 24th @ DPWT BMW so the full summary is on the website as I was watching his fitness as he had comeback from a back Injury which forced his WD from Wyndham Farms in Early August, I do note that PGA Sanderson was 4 weeks ago now so plenty of time to rehab the back injury.
If his back is fine then I would be happy to take closer to $250 to Win to find out.
|
| Patrick Fishburn |
Top 20 |
3.7/1(+370) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
All 3 players who I have selected to Top 20 only were all a part of my last 25 player cull and to be fair PF did have 8 straight finishes ranging from T62 to a low T6 @ PGA Isco & T8 @ Wyndham from July to August.
It was NOT because of his CUT @ PGA Utah but he is one of those "fringe" players on PGA who lacks & I mean no disrespect, but all aspects of his game are not up to winning regularly.
Where he can figure this week is-
- 40th in SG: OTT
- 58th in SG: T2G so to sit top 60 in Tee to Green is commendable
- 8th in GIR so he finds near 72% of greens in regulation which will go along way.
Yes his Putting generally lets him down after finding the green so well but in advising that he has been in positives strokes gained with the Putter in 6 of his last 8, this sounds promising but when we dive into the data the +SG is usually by +0.17 strokes, so just scrapes it in.
Unlike Utah 2 weeks ago most will find the fairway, nearly guaranteed here in Mexico and his GIR play can have him sit in the top half of the field, it will come down to the long stick.
I will not be playing him to Win.
Plus, an overall 50% SR just to MAKE the CUT scares me, again he did go 8 straight finishes which helps the decision to include for a Top 20 only.
|
| Greyson Sigg |
Top 20 |
3.7/1(+370) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Like most players who end up qualifying for the PGA so did Sigg after he won x 2 on the KFT, Korn Ferry Tour in 2020.
He will tee off in Group 23 along Eric Cole, who I have lots of time for and Max McGreevy who has a future so sometimes the right group can spur you on as Sigg has only 1 weapon and that is his APG where he does have a decent GIR @70%.
What I like about the $3.70 this week to Top 20 is GS has IN HIS LAST 3 events-
T15 @ Bank of Utah (a course many struggled on)
T21 @ Sanderson Farm
T19 @ Procore Championships
He does not have to show too much recent improvement here to figure, I will NOT be backing him to Win as he has now had 126 events on PGA tour with no wins or no Top 5s.
In this field he is okay but include most of the Top 50 in OWGR then like he has shown in 15 of 20 cuts against that opposition.
|
| Brandt Snedeker |
Top 20 |
5.7/1(+570) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
I will start straight off declaring BS is a player I will be having something small on to Win around $130 on betfair I will see if I can get matched for $200 but this is a veteran like Kuchar who has 9 x PGA wins and around $45 Million in prizemoney since he turned pro in 2007.
Of note he will tee off with Grillo & Power who combined have won 13 on PGA but more than 20 events so this group should be nice & relaxed and that experience right there you just cannot beat, it's a shame a few younger players are not mixed in.
Anyway, BS did what may of the better players struggled to do in UTAH which was play golf, the young guns took over but BS did end up in T9.
His last 2 days were in 66 (-5) & 63 (-8) not even the 18-hole leader & winner Michael Brennan could match the 63 & he was flying close to the sun.
- BS lost shots OTT with -0.896
- 9th in SG: APG with +4.386 strokes gained
- 6th in SG: ARG with +3.543
- 26th in SG: PUT with +2.155
Despite losing shots Off the Tee, he still had a crazy good 89.29% driving accuracy (50 of 56) fairways found.
He does not need to be that good here but generally he has a pretty solid game so would love to see him & Kuchar amongst it this week in Mexico, yes it would be nice to play in signature events in 2026 but they also can play in PGA senior events which many do well like Stewart Cink, Alkers, Allen & company.
Top 20 at his current win price should reflect closer to $8 so the $5.70 is short. Look around at other market providers.
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