PGA Valspar Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

PGA Tour

Course

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Location

Palm Harbor, FL

Date

19 March 2026

2026-03-19

America/New_York

View odds market

The final event of the Florida swing takes the PGA TOUR to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida, for the Valspar Championship.

Tournament Setup

Par: 36-35–71

7,352 yards

Turfgrass

Greens: Poa trivialis overseed .115”
Collars: Ryegrass overseed .350”
Approaches: Ryegrass overseed .350”
Tees: Ryegrass overseed .350”
Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .450”
Rough: Ryegrass overseed 3.75”

Course Statistics

Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. ft.
Total Property Acres: 950
Acres of Fairway: 25
Acres of Rough: 75
Number of Sand Bunkers: 74
Number of Water Hazards: 8
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9
Water Sources: Effluent
Drainage: Good
High Elevation: No 10 tee (85’)
Low Elevation: No. 2 fairway (9’)
Average Fairway Widths: 20 yards

Hole 1-

‘Innisbrook’s View’ is Par 5, dogleg right, requiring three calculated shots to reach the green.

Hole 2-

‘Second Thoughts’ is a Par 4 dogleg left that requires a decisive shot off the tee.

Hole 3-

On the Par 4 ‘Narrow Neck,’ there is no room for error, with a landing area off the tee just 30 yards wide.

Hole 4-

‘Bunkered’ is the first Par 3 at Copperhead and requires pinpoint accuracy while playing into a heavily protected green.

Hole 5-

Playing at 600 yards from the tips, the towering Par 5, ‘Longview’ lives up to its name.

Hole 6-

A high fade off the tee of ‘Sidewinder’ is the player’s only chance of keeping their drive in the fairway of this winding Par 4.

Hole 7-

The mid-length Par 4 ‘Hidden Gem’ provides the player with their first reprieve since the opening hole and an opportunity for birdie.

Hole 8-

Club selection is key on ‘Drop Off’ – a Par 3 that plays into an 8000 square foot green.

Hole 9-

The approach on the Par 4 ‘Hide Away’ plays into a well-protected green; and the player will want to make sure they have enough club to get there.

Hole 10-

Starting the back nine at Copperhead is ‘The Descent’ – a downhill Par 4 playing back up into an elevated green.

Hole 11-

Favor the right side off the tee on the Par 5 ‘O’s Alley,’ as the fairway opens up more than it appears from the box.

Hole 12-

The Par 4 ‘Bridge Hole’ will challenge the player’s distance control, require two well thought out shots in order to reach the green.

Hole 13-

The tightly mown areas around the green make the Par 3 ‘Forced Carry, a hole to be reckoned with.

Hole 14-

Follow the contours of ‘Packard’s Double Dogleg’ if you want any chance of scoring well on the last of Copperhead’s Par 5s.

Hole 15-

With the latest restoration at Copperhead, the bunkering on the Par 3, ‘Snake Bite’ became even more venomous.

Hole 16-

One of the toughest scoring holes on the PGA TOUR, the Par 4 ‘Moccasin’ will test the player’s ability to hit a controlled fade into a very tight fairway.

Hole 17-

Beware of ‘The Rattler’ – this long Par 3 has plenty of bite for the player that misses the green.

Hole 18-

With an all-uphill approach, ‘The Copperhead’ is the ultimate finishing hole for a championship course.

Player skills suited @ Copperhead Course-

Driving Accuracy
High +70% Greens in regulation
Slick around greens
Birdie conversions with putter
Bogey avoidance

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.

Competitor	Tip Type	Odds	Units	Result	Rationale
Justin Thomas	Win	25/1(+2500)	1.00	LOSS	• 29th x SG: T2G • 89th x SG: OTT • 38th x SG: APG • 27th x SG: ARG • 28th x SG: PUT • 65.28% Greens in regulation • BTA- below tour avg Driving accuracy • 90.1% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (1/2) • 42.8% top 25 in 2025 +50% in 2026 (1/2) • 4/4 x SG metrics • 69.73 stroke avg • 16 x PGA wins After returning to competition after his spinal surgery @ PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational with rounds of 79 & 79 (+14) the old JT looked terrible until he quashed rumours and got moving with his T8 last week @ The Players. • 57th x SG: Off the Tee @ -1.448 losing strokes • 7th x Greens in Regulation @ 72.22% (52/72) • 7th x SG: Approach to Green @ +5.566 strokes gained • 30th x SG: Around The Green @ +1.267 • 9th x SG: Putting @ +4.268 • T8 x SG: Total @ +9.653 • T58 x Driving Accuracy @ 53.57% (30/56) Despite being sore & tired towards the end of the event he will take plenty of confidence into this week and he has been installed as the 6th favourite around $25 on betfair. I would much rather be taking those odds compared to Victor Hovland who I thought had every chance last week as did the super consistent Matt Fitzpatrick who are much less. Is the best "Horses for Courses" player this week.
Jordan Spieth	Win	36/1(+3600)	1.00	LOSS	• 24th x SG: T2G • 33rd x SG: OTT • 58th x SG: APG • 31st x SG: ARG • 65th x SG: PUT • 64.62% GIR • BTA-below tour average for driving accuracy in 2025 • 89.5% made cuts in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 42.1% top 25 in 2025 + 33.33% in 2025 (1/3) • 70.07 stroke avg • 13 x PGA Wins Some of what we sent out for the PGA Genesis Invitational @ $110. "We were following JS and deliberately left him alone last week @ Pebble Beach & I will be the first to admit that when I saw him up in the T10 coming into day 3 @ -10 I did think perhaps I made an error. I mean we do a lot of homework here @ PGT and we watch so much golf & if you read previous analysis of Jordan from us, we are fans, JS has quoted tom many media outlets "I was better than Scott". So last week @ PGA The Players, JS was good one day & ordinary the next undoing all his good work. Below are his stats over 72 holes- • 66th x SG: OTT losing -2.300 strokes • T38 x GIR @ 61.11% (44/72) • 8th x SG: APG @ +5.435 strokes gained • 16th x SG: ARG @ +2.854 SG • T61 x SG: Putting losing -2.336 strokes • T32 x SG: Total @ +3.653 • Driving Accuracy @ 50.00% (28/56) As advised, he had some good days and not so good with his best day being Day 2 when carding 68 (-4). JS has been good overall in his last 4 events with T32, T11, T12 & T29 across some of the more difficult courses on tour, he will have to be on high alert this weekend and will not be able to afford to have too many errors. After opening around $32 on betfair late on Monday Night (1130pm) he has not met with too much support and has slightly drifted out to $36 which is a far cry from the $110 & similar he went around in his earlier events in 2026. JS this week can lean on his generally good Iron play and has been good with the putter of late around a course he has been in the finish in 2 of the last 3 years with his best result a T3 in 2023. I would suggest +$40 as more than fair because if he can remain consistent over 4 days it may well be the event he breaks through in.
Nicolai Hojgaard	Win	42/1(+4200)	1.00	LOSS	• 43rd x SG: T2G • 56th x SG: OTT • 11th x SG: APG • 166th x SG: ARG • 53rd x SG: PUT • 70.41% GIR • 65% Driving Accuracy • 64.7% made cuts in 2025 & 100% in 2026 (5/5) • 42% top 25 in 2025 + 75% in 2026 (4/5) • 69.48 stroke avg • 0 x PGA wins & 3 DPWT Wins The Dane is one of our more favoured players on the DP World Tour and like many from that tour they are yet to Win on USA soil to claim their first PGA victory. NH kicked off 2026 with a most recent T4 @ HERO Dubai Desert Classic at the end of January after an ordinary result of T52 @ Dubai Invitational. Both courses very similar but it was 8 weeks in between events for the young Danish star when competing in Dubai after a busy 2025, so we considered that the main reason for his poor showing considering- • -1.08 strokes lost x SG: OTT on avg each day • -2.66 stokes lost x SG: Total We have made that stat apparent as his driving is one of his stronger attributes and throughout 2025 had- • 18 of 25 events in positive strokes gained Off the Tee (4 of those less than -0.50 strokes lost) That could have easily improved from a very good 72% to 88% in SG: OTT & to be fair it is only a matter of time like we saw with Finnish player Sami Valimaki breaking through on the PGA tour. What we can trust from NH is his strong driving stats & on DPWT he brings- • 7th in SG: OTT in 2025 • 2nd in Driving Distance in 2025 with 323.14 yards (Rory was 323.18) LAST WEEK @ PGA The Players his normally best stat he struggled in- • 72nd x SG: Off The Tee losing -4.780 strokes • 28th x SG: Approach to Green @ +2.193 strokes gained • 22nd x SG: Around The Green @ +1.695 SG • 3rd x SG: Putting @ +5.545 SG • T27 x SG: Total @ +4.653 • T71 x Driving Accuracy @ 42.86% (24/56) It is rare for Nicolai to lose strokes off the tee and in fact the Dane has only lost strokes in 4 of his last 25 world wide- • 21 of 25 events in +strokes gained OTT for last 12 months Yet to win on USA soil, however he did give the New Orleans event a big nudge with twin Rasmus. Now cashing in all of his last 5 starts on PGA he looks determined to get the 1st victory & somewhere we have summarised we consider Nicolai to be the better of the Hojgaard players but currently after opening around $38 on betfair he is now being offered around $42, The better the price the happier I will be. There are a few players shorter than him such as Ryo Hisatsune as a comparable that I would NOT entertain before having my last $20 on a player. I think NH is value.
J.J. Spaun	Win	44/1(+4400)	1.00	LOSS	• 8th in SG: T2G • 41st in SG: OTT • 5th in SG: APG • 86th in SG: ARG • 72nd in SG: PUT • 69.57% GIR • 62.05% Driving Accuracy • 84% made cuts in 2025+ 50% in 2026 (3/6) • 56% Top 25 in 2025 + 15% in 2026 (1/6) • 69.48 stroke avg • 2 PGA Wins If you have been watching the golf through 2025 then you now know his name, he had a breakout year winning the US Open & kept the form rolling into the back end of 2025 with multiple placings & his latest a 4th @ Hero challenge to Hideki. Hard to believe he was $22 to win PGA SONY Open? • 3 cuts in last 5 events in 2026 JJ has been a player we have had our eyes on and normally we would be very guarded when a player fails to make even the last 36 holes in 60% of his events, however, what he showed us in 2025 and his desire to return to that form could have been his own undoing in 2026. JJ often refers to his own "Mental game" and how he has struggled with weekly expectations, I saw some footage of JJ last week and he looked the most relaxed yet in 2026 and the results will flow as long as he is not his harshest critic. Last week he bounced back with a terrific T24- His Day 3 his best- • 44th x SG: OTT losing -0.259 strokes • 20th x SG: APG @ +1.018 strokes gained • 65th x SG: ARG losing -1.112 strokes • 1st x SG: PUT @ +3.818 • T5 x SG: Total @ +3.466 • T39 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (8/14) • 4th x Scrambling @ 88.89% (8/9) I watched JJ and why we included scrambling this week is because when it got tough I honestly was expecting him to crack, although not laughing as much as other players he was so focused and it showed with his better T24. Players week in & week out often need that reassurance it seems so if he can "get out of his own head" this week the current price around $40 is more than acceptable, I did get $44 at time of summary @ 7am today so the pool on betfair will grow by at least 400% so wait and hopefully better than +$44 will be available. No Rory or Scheffler this week to stifle the markets.
Sahith Theegala	Win	44/1(+4400)	1.00	LOSS	What we sent out last week for the PGA Players when Sahith was $90- • 147th x SG: T2G • 135th x SG: OTT • 134th x SG: APG • 95th x SG: ARG • 138th x SG: PUT • 65.56% GIR • BTA x DA • 73.9% made cuts in 2025 • 70.93 stroke avg • 1 x PGA win ST is our project player @ PGT & he was selected & he is showing tremendous form over on TGL as a member of Los Angeles GC and on watching every game so far in 2026 he looks very good indoors. Another player The Stig & MJ have been following waiting for him to hit Gold/pay dirt he proved his mettle last week for his best result since returning from a lengthy injury (full detailed summary is in our past selections on website) & new mental approach to the game with- • T8 x PGA American Express with -21 (71, 64, 67, 65) Most Analysts have been missing his slow & steady improvement, so it does bite a bit that he goes around this week around $80 when we @ PGT have been following between $120 to $200 in other events. What has stuck is his ability Off the Tee which is favoured around the 2 courses @ Torrey Pines, His 2025 stats are to be ignored due to the long term injury but if we look closer into his past 7 events he did make the cut in 6. He went from the PGA Procore in Mid-September of 2025 & steadily improved, his Driving stats were his staple, and we saw that on full display last week in California but surprisingly he featured high up in the rankings in putting- • 3rd x SG: Putting @ +4.051 stroke gained That has to have ST smiling from ear to ear, combine this with his consistent driving- T41 x Driving Accuracy @ 66.07% (37/56) fairways found 17th x Driving Distance @ 317.00 yds His best driving accuracy came on Day 2 & 3- • T5 x Driving Accuracy @ 85.71% (12/14)- day 2 • T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (11/14)- day 3 It is one thing to hit the ball long which there are players this week that can but often they are around 50% in finding fairways which means that 2nd shot is likely going to be tough, in the rough on both the NC & SC this week the rough is 3 to 4 inches thick, you want accuracy as well this week. Thanks to his T10 finish he also gets a free ride into a few of the PGA signature events coming up. Last week at Arnold Palmer- • 27th x SG: OTT @ +0.540 strokes gained • 8th x SG: APG @ +4.029 • 2nd x SG: ARG @ +4.900 • 36th x SG: PUT losing -0.602 strokes • T6 x SG: Total @ +8.867 • T29 x Driving Accuracy @5 7.14% (32/56) • 12 x Driving Distance @ 314.60 yds • T15 x GIR @ 63.89% (46/72) Whilst all eyes were on Bhatia (he did come from 5 off) Theegala went 7 birdies with only 1 bogey on 15th hole to end his weekend with a -6 and overall, -10 & 6th finish locking up a start at the US Masters. We have been following ST and if he can put 4 days together then he figures here, we are waiting for it & on Monday he opened around $80 on betfair and drifted to $100 before firming a touch yesterday between $90 to $95, I would suggest waiting to see if you can get matched around +$110, if he clicks he can easily do a "Bhatia", on AB it will be interesting to see if he can keep the ball on the fairway around TPC Sawgrass, or will he miss the cut? Finally, ST is playing some incredible golf, this is a massive shave off his normal price but considering there is NO Scheffler, Rory, Tommy and company then we will gladly take the $44 available now on betfair, I saw early $40 and expected him to come into $34 but the weight of money for Xander seems to be allowing others to slightly drift. Just like Sepp Straka last week, we do not go back to the well too often so ST is on his last chance until we rest him.
Keegan Bradley	Win	85/1(+8500)	1.00	LOSS	• 9th x SG: T2G • 32nd x SG: OTT • 39th x SG: APG • 8th x SG: ARG • 114th x SG: PUT • 66.04% GIR • 61.39% DA • 90.5% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4) • 52.4% top 25 in 2025 + 0% in (0/4) 2026 • 69.91 x stroke avg • 8 x PGA Wins • 3/4 x Strokes gained metrics Another player who we sent out recently- "KB the captain of the 2025 USA Ryder Cup team can be a hard player to catch to Win outright. We had a few of our players chase him hard on day 4 @ PGA Travelers Championships in June of 2025 after he opened the door with his 70 on Day 2, he did crank it up to a low 63 (-7) on day 3 to put a bit of separation before paddling on day 4 with his -2, we had several finish hard to fall just short. Now he is another who brings decent form indoors from the TGL & he always will figure when he addresses his wayward putting. Now he was very measured last week @ Pebble Beach and this is the KB we want to see here @ Riviera- • 37th x SG: OTT over 72 holes (high of 21st on Day 2-with 22nd on Day 3) • 66th x SG: APG over 72 holes (high of 11th on Day 1- the rest was +50th) • 4th x SG: ARG over 72 holes • 20th x SG: PUT over 72 holes (high of 17th Day 1) highlighting his consistency KB did card an impressive -9 (63) on Day 1 & the eventual winner Colin Morikawa was ( -10 on day 3) & if you have been on the profitable journey with us you know we would prefer -4 or -5 each day but as Scheffler proved last week (-9) if you are going to have your best day then day 4 is when to bring it. If we look more deeply into KBs putting stats in 2025 they were terrible being ranked @ 114th overall, We do not even mind if a player in our weekly roster sits around 60th, usually they bolster overall play with other stronger strokes gained metrics. What we can prove is Keegan has now- • 8 of his last 13 events in Positives strokes gained for Putting • 3 of the 5 negative events he was less than -0.50 strokes His stats would look incredible if that read 11 of his last 13 so its apart of his game he has improved, I personally have seen him sink some monster putts in various TGL events. We are feeling much better in including KB as a rough hope this week as he has- • 22 of his last 25 events all in +SG: Total He just has the habit of bobbing up when no one expects it. The signature event this week reduces to 72 players from 80 the previous week & I thought Bradley would be a significant drifter but he opened @ $80 late Monday night on betfair and is around $90 currently. I would suggest trying to get matched between $110 to $120 on betfair, we have to remember that the field is only 72 players and KB is around $90 if he was in a full field of +150 players would he be closer to +$150? Very possible but he is still on our radar & still sits well within our Top 50 of our own PGT player roster." Why KB is included in this line up @ Bay Hill is he shot an incredible -8 (64) last year on the final, day 4. • 1st x SG: APG with +6.040 strokes gained A near 70% driving accuracy helped him line up shots on approach and he obviously had no problems with his putter on day 4 as he went- • 1 x Eagle + 7 x birdies with just 1 bogey We know any of these better and higher ranked players can feature on any weekend they just need to run super-hot. Currently on betfair there is $110 on offer and no support since opening around $80. We suggest trying for higher odds so see if you can get matched +$130. What The Stig & MJ are seeing most weeks is a player ready to break out!** It's a shame this week for the "SNAKE PIT" we are getting $85 for the Valspar, it is rare to see KB miss 3 cuts in a row so after having an early weekend at both the Genesis & Arnold Palmer it was good to see his- • T50 @ The Players Championships last week with rounds of 77, 66, 68, 78 Yes, the 77 (+5) on day 1 & 78 (+6) on day 4 were the crucifiers as were the back-to-back bogeys on day 4 at holes 4, 5 & 6. His overall course history this weekend is deceiving as from the last 5 editions he was cut twice but did not play in 2 (DNP) and had the 2nd in 2021.
Taylor Moore	Win	85/1(+8500)	1.00	LOSS	• 70th x SG: T2G • 70th x SG: OTT • 147th x SG: APG • 18th x SG: ARG • 128th x SG: PUT • 67.95% x GIR • BTA- below tour avg driving accuracy • 55.5% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (5/5) • 25.9% top 25 in 2025 + 20% in 2026 (1/5) • 2/4 x SG metrics • 70.04 stroke avg • 1 X PGA win After finding his way into our 115 player database for the 2026 season @ #104 this 32 yr old from Texas has held his own and gave Shane Lowry & Nico scares at the recent PGA Cognizant Classic when T2. Now shooting for his 6th straight PGA finish AFTER a T40 @ Arnold Palmer where he had some good moments and last week with his T50 @ The Players, a lot is referred to last week as the event is widely known as the 5th Major with most of the best attending. So far in 2026 TM is overshadowing his 2025 stats significantly- • 65th x SG: T2G • 22nd x SG: OTT • 46th x SG: Total • 21st x SG: ARG • 54th x SG: PUT Currently sitting a high of #44 FedEx and 138th in OWGR the Texan only needs to focus on improving his Iron paly on Approach which can be up & down at times, in saying that he looked sharp at the Cognizant ( well better than Shane). Currently around $85 on betfair, I like how he is trending and he has proven in this weaker affair he could challenge early and stay there, for transparency I like a few at bigger prices ahead of him though.
Rasmus Hojgaard	Win	90/1(+9000)	1.00	LOSS	The more fragile of the Hojgaard twins, I say this tongue in cheek but Rasmus can often decline rather quickly especially if a few putts miss by an inch or so. After selecting him along with Nico for the PGA Cognizant he did leave a bad taste as he was sent out @ $32. What we summarised for that event- • 99th x SG: T2G • 63rd x SG: OTT • 121st x SG: APG • 102nd x SG: ARG • 112th x SG: PUT • 66.75% GIR • 65.25% DA • 75% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (3/3) • 35% top 25 in 2025 +33.33% in 2026 (1/3) • 70.21 stroke avg • 0 x PGA Wins + 5 x DPWT Wins How can we forget Rasmus as we selected him in his home event the Danish Open back in August of 2025 where he led by 5 strokes for the final 18 holes. Now as we watch all the golf unfold I nearly died when the commentator made the profound comment of "Rasmus when leading coming into day 4, has never won on the DP tour" it was a shock hearing this as the commentator went on to say all his 5 wins have been as a chaser, personally I have no idea how you lose a golf event when 5 strokes in front. His T9 @ the PGA Cognizant was a pass considering he could have powered away. As harsh as it sounds hopefully the 2 missed cuts back-to-back @ PGA Puerto Rico Open & The Players, have him hungrier for this week. He should have destroyed the field in Puerto Rico as the fairways were easy to find yet he lost- • -3.57 x Off the Tee ( it was a change of driver blamed) When Rasmus last had 2 x cuts he bounced back at the- • T16 x The Open Championships @ Royal Portrush GC Both the Hojgaard twins are usually very clinical in most strokes gained metrics and I expect them to both get back to doing that, it is a weaker PGA event here so most players under $100 probably would not surprise us seeing we watch all events. Rasmus around $90 on betfair presently represents better value than 50% of those under $60, I hope he had something to prove this week. We do not want him leading however, he thinks too much & as the last 3 event winners have come from off the pace then he does player better chasing a few.
Wyndham Clark	Win	95/1(+9500)	1.00	LOSS	• 92nd x SG: T2G • 84th x SG: OTT • 154th x SG: APG • 22nd x SG: ARG • 66th x SG: PUT • 65.85% GIR • BTA- below tour avg in 2025 driving accuracy • 75% made cuts in 2025 & 100% in 2026 • 33.3% top 25 in 2025 • 70.13 stroke avg • 3 x PGA Wins It is very well worth mentioning that WC finally let his ego go and employed swing coach Pat Coyner in a bid to restore his terrific 2023 form which saw him win the MAJOR, US Open + another PGA win before going on and finishing 3rd at the end of year PGA TOUR Championships. In 2024 we saw him win the AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am before finishing with a few other 2nds in 2024, when 2025 started WC relied too much on his own mental fortitude & to be fair all athletes including Scott Scheffler have coaches for not only various clubs but performance coaches. The results in 2025 showed he needed help, towards the end of 2025 we saw the PHOENIX Rising again with- • 7 of 10 cuts made • 5 of 10 results in T20 • 2 of the 5 were T10 results At first glance it does not look impressive but consider he had risen to #10 in OWGR in 2023 and he now sits at #49 in OWGR that is not truly a good reflection of how the middle of 2025 was for him. We gave WC a big push last week in California at considerable overs of $140 on average on offer and he was good with his T13 but to be honest he was looking a huge hope after 54 holes. He started well with 66 & followed that up with a better 64 then 66 before a slight fade on day 4 with his 72 (par) courtesy of a double bogey on 5 & a bogey on 13 meant players like Scott Scheffler, Jason Day & Ryan Gerard shot past him on a day when it really mattered to finish strong. Looking at WC he will probably beat himself up but again he was a big chance after 54 holes but his overall 72 hole result was sound- • 42nd x SG: APG @ 0.678 strokes gained- a peak on Day 2 saw +2.798 better. • 13th x SG: ARG @ 1.560 strokes gained • 11th x SG: PUT @ 2.379 strokes gained • 77.78% GIR (56/72) You can read an incredibly detailed analysis from the week prior but we touted he will only get better as 2026 gets hot & if he keeps doing what we have seen in recent events his strength can shine this week as he is ranked a very high- • 5th x Driving Distance on avg 321.80 yards His long driving will help especially when you compare him to the tour avg of around 297 yards and players like Rory @ 320 yards or a player we like here who is 1st in driving distance, Aldrich Potgieter @ 331.8 yards. Another player the Stig & MJ found @ $140 last week gets a nice shave off his price this week & is currently around $60 on betfair after opening @ $50, a slight drift out to $65 to $70 would be welcomed as if he holds the form from last week he can really be sustainable, he did win Pebble Beach in 2024 which is not too far away so I am sure he will have his goals set to be in form leading into that leg. Above is what we sent out for the Farmers, whilst he has only gone T35, T58, T41 & last weeks T42 it is in only the last 3 events he has lost strokes with his putter. In his previous 60% of events, he actually had positive strokes gained with his putter, we have put it in writing how he has been working hard with his new swing coach, he looks good & even last week he was- • 18th x SG: Approach to Green @ +3.692 • 15th x SG: Around the Green @ +2.925 That is pretty significant and I am not bothered by him losing -2 shots Off the Tee, that is over 4 days and honestly who could keep the ball on the fairway anyway. Sometimes as analysts we cannot be too critical of the players we select, they deserve a few chances but we did wait and watch for the 3 events in between recalculating his chances here. I was happy accepting the $95 on betfair, anything around $100 is a good price IMO.
Max Homa	Win	100/1(+10000)	1.00	LOSS	What we sent out for Max for the PGA Cognizant- • 151st x SG: T2G • 106th x SG: OTT • 155th x SG: APG • 127th x SG: ARG • 81st x SG: PUT • 66.36% GIR • BTA Driving Accuracy in 2025 • 62.50 made cuts in 2025 + 75% in 2026 (3/4) • 20.80% top 25 in 2025 + 0 in 2026 • 70.62 stroke avg • 6 x PGA Wins The very laid-back MH could be the player to upset here as his form in 2026 has been steadily improving his overall game- • 10 of his last 12 made cuts His overall strokes gained from T2G has steadily been improving and with so many holes around here requiring sweet striking from the 100 to 200 yards he can display- • 1st x Approaches from 75-100 yards • 10th x going for the green @ 79.55% attempts This week if he can put a few 66 days together (-5) & display what we saw when 27th @ Amex his -17 was some of his best golf, he had a nice little stretch of results from T19 @ Procore to the T9 @ Bank of Utah which keeping it on the fairways proved very fruitful. He brings more proven form into this weekend unlike Nico before him in the markets & the 2 play entirely different games but Homa has been in positive strokes in T2G in 6 of his last 8 & without the worlds higher ranked players he can put his hand up. He opened @ $60 on betfair and honestly I thought that was value so a bit shocked to see him drift to $75 well after already backing him @ $60 as I thought he would firm. If he maintains and can sit around that -4 to -5 each day then no shock to see him winning here. This week @ Valspar- Max has not played at this event in the last 4 editions (DNP) and we go back to 2021 where he was T6 but that has not frightened us away from backing up on him. Why- He has had some good rounds of golf recently- • 12 of 22 rounds under 70 Last week around the Players he was all over the place but recognised metrics he needed to improve quickly- • Day 1 x Driving Accuracy @ 28.57% (4/14) was ranked T119 He joined Scott Scheffler early but Max picked up his game- Day 2 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (10/14) for T22 Day 3 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (11/14) for T4 His best strokes gained metric across 72 holes was- • 4th x SG: Approach to Green @ +3.527 What was baffling was he did not make his 2nd shot easy with only finding 28% of fairways so for his APG so good we feel he is on the cusp. He is one of the players around the current price bracket of $100 on betfair that we think is value this week, of course he has to be consistent over all 4 days, don't they all!.
Billy Horschel	Win	130/1(+13000)	1.00	LOSS	Another player who like Sepp Straka last weekend is on his final chance because we have been avid fans in 2026 waiting for the shift to arrive- What we sent for the Cognizant- • 55th in SG: T2G • 45th in SG: OTT • 40th in SG: APG • 40th in SG: ARG • 45th in SG: PUT • 65.82% GIR • 60.65 DA • 64.3% made cuts in 2025 + 60% in 2026 (3/5) • 35.7% Top 25 in 2025 + 0 in 2026 • 70.0 stroke avg • 8 x PGA Wins What we surmised back @ Sony Open in January- "He is our VALUE play this weekend and if he brings his current hot form putting from recent TGL games then he can put win #9 away. After his hip surgery in 2025 I was discussing with The Stig he could be the player to watch in 2026 now fit. We have watched endless interviews from November & December 2025 and as we tune into TGL games his fitness obviously has him feeling stronger both physically & mentally. I was shocked to see he did not make the PGA Top 15 in their analysis & even more shocked he was $75 & has drifted to $110, that has us excited as he is tremendous value. The very undulating hills will test his hip out." For this week in Florida, I thought he was disappointing in Hawaii but rebounded well @ AMEX then missed 2 straight cuts @ WM Phoenix & Farmers before an okay result of T48 @ Pebble Beach. The Stig & MJ left him alone after a bruising of the ego (MJ) & to be blunt he has been playing terrific golf in the arena @ TGL. Over @ TGL he has been instrumental in Atlanta Drive GC & some of the insane putts he has pulled off which is very hard to marry that up with his current outdoor form. After his Hip surgery I was expecting big things in 2026. Billy will tee off in group 14 with big gun Shane Lowry & Aaron Rai quite early so no doubt they can push each other. Come on Billy this week, perform please. BH opened at $90 on betfair and has drifted to as much as $140 on offer now. Wait because if the journos over @ PGA etc leave him alone he may not be over bet IMO. Try getting matched for at least +$170, at worst case they are not teeing off until 10:45 AEDT here in Australia. So, this week for the Valspar he is on the old 3 strikes you are out scenario- When we see a player playing better than his stats suggest which all stats recorded are history in what has already happened, if we see Billy miss 6 of 18 putts by less than 10mm then yes they are recorded as stats, what stats do not record is how any of those 6 putts could have changed the outcome, in other words we do not record putts missed by 10mm x 6. After missing the Players BH was very good @ Arnold Palmer which had me annoyed with his Cognizant effort but relieved as we track players. Arnold Palmer- • 44th x SG: OTT losing -2.636 strokes • 40th x SG: APG losing -2.234 strokes • 11th x SG: ARG +1.612 gained • 2nd x SG: Putting @ +7.125 • T13 x SG: Total @ +3.867 Because most eyes were on Akshay & Berger there were some excellent efforts back in the field. • Billy lost near -5 strokes but gained +7 strokes putting @ Arnold Palmer. We have a lot of faith in the players we select so BH this week around a course he has had good finishes in the last 2 years- • T4 in 2025 • T12 in 2025 DNP in previous years so around the $130 on betfair at time of summary has peaked my interest, our database of players in force so let us hope @ $130 this week he proves his mettle.
Lucas Glover	Win	170/1(+17000)	1.00	LOSS	• 25th x SG: T2G • 78th x SG: OTT • 25th x SG: APG • 41st x SG: ARG • 157th x SG: PUT • 65.41% x GIR • 68.36% x DA • 68.2% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4) • 36.4% top 25 in 2025 + 25% in 2026 (1/4) • ¾ x SG metrics • 70.31 stroke avg • 6 x PGA wins LG has been on our roster once in 2026 but what he brings to Copperhead Course is a game that has him in the results for the last 3 years straight- • T8 in 2025 • 11th in 2024 • T36 in 2023 He arrives much fresher than previous seasons after coming back from injury but has played well for Atlanta Drive GC with Rory & company in TGL & despite being CUT last week from the Players, I am not reading into that too much as in 2025 he was 3rd @ The Players, however he was not off an injury and had played 7 events in 2025 leading into that compared to only 4. Looking through what type of player we expect and what he did at- • T24 x PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational with rounds of 73. 73. 70, 70 for -2 His overall performance was solid- • 42 x SG: OTT losing -2.099 strokes • 30th x SG: APG @ +0.264 gained • T29 x Greens in Regulation @ 59.72% (43/72) • 4th x SG: ARG @ +3.460 gained • 37th x SG: Putting losing -0.758 strokes (over 72 holes) • T24 x SG: Total @ +0.867 • T9 x Driving Accuracy @ 67.86% (38/56) Despite being cut last week LG still had +SG in Putting & +SG: OTT and he missed the Cut by 1 stroke after it moved to +2 after 36 holes. On Day 1 he was okay with his 70 (5 x birdies, 1 x double bogey and 1 x bogey) but his day 2, 77 meant the TRIPLE bogey on 13 when he tried shortcutting the hole and found water pretty much tapped his weekend out. Around a course he knows very well and no doubt will be enthusiastic to put last week well in the rear view mirror & around $170 on betfair after opening as low as $120 on Monday in Australia he can carry 1 unit to find out.
Davis Riley	Win	190/1(+19000)	1.00	LOSS	• 162nd x SG: T2G • 165 x SG: OTT • 169th x SG: APG • 26th x SG: ARG • 63rd x SG: PUT • 63.11% x GIR • BTA x below tour avg Driving accuracy • 55.2% made cuts in 2025 + 42.8% in 2026 (3/7) • 13.8% top 25 in 2025 + 14.2% in 2026 (1/7) • 2/4 x SG metrics • 70.74 stroke avg • 2 x PGA wins It is not hard to get Davis Riley & Davis Thompson mixed up as both have streaks but both sit at least winning on PGA tour (Riley 2). But Davis Riley actually has one of the better overall records around Copperhead and definitely a better record than many players in this field who are trying to win their first PGA event. • 7th x 2025 • Cut x 2024 • T19 x 2023 • 2nd x 2022 Of note DR came out of a similar patch of form Back in 2022 when 2nd and he only won on PGA Tour in 2023 & 2024 so its not as if he was a player who had been in terrific consistent form. DR sat a high 75th in our own database ranking before Sony had teed off and as it is updated weekly it is incredible to see how any player can creep under your guard at times. • 13th x SG: PUT across all PGA players in 2026. Looking at his approach stats you would not think much of his current PGA ranking @ 143rd but he is ranked as high as – • 6th x Approach 125 > 150 yards • 10th x Approach > 200 yards • 2nd x Approach 250 > 275 yards It could explain why he performs generally well here as his stats at first hand can look very deceiving. When I started typing @ 7am there was $240 on offer @ Betfair, I wish I jumped on it but whether some Analysis has given him a good write up since as I can only find $190 on offer, I suggest waiting as he should be +$220 in most events. He is our instinctive play as after all he was 75th in our own database for a reason.
Michael Kim	Win	220/1(+22000)	1.00	LOSS	• 38th x SG: T2G • 101st x SG: OTT • 35th x SG: APG • 43rd x SG: ARG • 103rd x SG: PUT • 64.99% x GIR • BTA- DA • 81.5% made cuts in 2025 + 57.2 % in 2026 (4/7) • 25.9 top 25 in 2025 + 14.25% in 2026 (1/7) • 2/4 x SG metrics • 70.18 stroke avg • 1 x PGA win + 1 x DPWT win When MK won his 1st event on the DP World Tour he defeated some very highly ranked players on OWGR when he won with -16. Just a few of the players who could NOT run him down were, Min Woo Lee, Elvis Smylie (won since on LIV) Brooks Kopeka (who is getting better each week on PGA), Jayden Schaper, Ryan Fox. We liked what we saw early in 2026 in the first 4 events he contested, and it has only been in the very last 3 events in much deeper & stronger fields he has gone over par in. Like many on tour he is stacked with plenty or raw ability, like most they all struggle to bring it over all 4 days but he tees off in group 36 with Bud Cauley & Adam Svensson who will not be in the media spotlight & this may provide him with ample space to getting down to business. In fields where 30% of the line up are yet to win on PGA tour and or out of form there is no reason to think he cannot figure this weekend with his stats looking far better than what his actual results have been. I went too early & took $220 last night (trying to save time) but I would suggest not recommending that he could easily be +$250 when tee off is in approx 30 hours as there is not much I am seeing in support presently on betfair. Be patient and his price should drift, again not assured it will.
Matt Fitzpatrick	Win (Late Mail)	4.9/1(+490)	3.00	WIN	• 12th x SG: Off the Tee @ +2.178 • 1st x SG: Approach to Green @ +5.434 • 28th x SG: Around the Green @ +1.371 • 46th x SG: Putting @ +0.527 • T4 x SG: Total @ +9.511 • T3 x Driving Accuracy @ 66.67% (26/39) • 1st x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (42/54) The Englishman is no stranger to us as we have selected him in various events in 2026 & once known for his putting that skillset has taken a back seat to his approach play which has improved from late 2025 into most events he has competed in 2026. We like his chances this close as even if he putts 50% better than he has so far in 2026 he can surge to the front before the front 9 has finished. He has also picked up on the field +3 strokes in tee to green- • 1st x T2G @ +3.00 strokes gained over 54 holes From day 1 into day 3 he only lost -0.56 in putting on day 1, day 2 his only negative was losing -0.35 strokes Off the Tee and yesterday losing -0.50 stroke around the green. We are not convinced Sungjae has what it takes to hold on and the total spend including the late mails for the event is now -20 units so we are now focused on covering the outlay. 3 units to win @ $4.90 on betfair, you could try being matched around $5.50
Marco Penge	Win (Late Mail)	9.8/1(+980)	1.00	LOSS	• 16th x SG: OTT @ +1.855 • 19th x SG: APG @ +2.934 • 57th x SG: ARG losing -0.701 strokes • 7th x SG: PUT @ +5.422 • T4 x SG: Total @ +9.511 • T46 x Driving Accuracy @ 51.28% (20/39) • T11 x Greens in Regulation @ 74.07% (40/54) We did select MP previously in 2026 and he is a player with such terrific form over in Europe on the DP World Tour with 3 wins all coming in 2025 but around Copperhead he has been putting far better than his current ranking of 140th in 2026. Combine his putting with some crisp irons on approach there is no reason to think he cannot be there on the final 9 holes. This field lacks the same depth than the 8 events on the PGA tour so far in 2026. Currently he is the 3rd betting fav with 18 holes to go so just the 1 unit @ $9.80 on betfair, another player you could try and get matched for much higher as we will be taking on Sungjae Im.
Brandt Snedeker	Win (Late Mail)	11/1(+1100)	1.00	LOSS	• 69th x SG: OTT losing -2.039 strokes • 42nd x SG: APG @ +0.475 • 8th x SG: ARG @ +3.466 • 1st x SG: PUT @ +8.608 • T2 x SG: Total @ +10.511 • T26 x Driving Accuracy @ 56.41% (22/39) • T42 x Greens in Regulation @ 55.56% (30/54) • T1 x Sand Saves @ 100.00% (7/7) We included his sand saves as he has been outstanding chipping in from the bunkers. Much has been reported on the dramatic change in this veterans' putting prowess, the secret is simple, he changed to a mallet putter and no doubt that is proof enough as he is massive +8 strokes in putting over 54 holes so far. Another player that in 2025 and once in 2026 we have included the veteran in our selections, usually though @ +$150 and just off the top of my head once around +$250 so we overlooked him before tee off here and no doubt the change of putter has made such big improvements. He still has won 9 on PGA tour and despite his last win being @ PGA Wyndham Championships back in August 2018 he can put the pressure on the current leader early. Around $11 now on betfair is fair odds considering he is 2nd in strokes gained overall and 1st in Putting. He is the closest chaser.
S.H. Kim	Win (Late Mail)	65/1(+6500)	1.00	LOSS	• 43rd x SG: OTT @ +0.151 • 29th x SG: APG @ +1.857 • 38th x SG: ARG @ +0.698 • 8th x SG: PUT @ +4.804 • T6 x SG: Total @ +7.511 • T11 x Driving Accuracy @ 61.54% (24/39) • T25 x Greens in Regulation @ 59.26% (32/54) Normally you will not see us select a non-winner in a PGA event but Seong-hyeon is one of the recent batch of Korn Ferry tour players that are carving it up in 2026. The 2022 KFT Rookie of the Year has not been overlooked with many leading analysts including him in PGA events in 2026 before tee off, to date in 2026 he has been- • Made 5 from 7 cuts in 2026-all PGA • 2 x top 25s in 2026 As S.H Kim was previous selected even by PGA analysts earlier in 2026 it was mainly because of his iron play but looking deep into his 2026 stats, that from 7 events he only ranks 159th in SG: APG and we like to compare stats to see if his last 54 holes around Copperhead is an anomaly? His previous KFT stats show us- • 54th in Greens in Regulation @ 72.72% I would happily take any player that can for all of 2025 hit +70% of greens. Yesterday Brandt Snedeker picked up +5 strokes in Putting, the player closest to him in 2nd was S.H Kim- 2nd x Strokes gained putting @ +3.60 Of course he has to give them a start being @ -6 but the target IMO is -9 and not -11 so it will take a massive round from Kim but a lot happens on the final 18 holes so at $65 on betfair it is not out of the realm of possibilities a quick start can have him feature. Something that rings true as I type up the summary is the last 3 leaders over the last 3 weeks have lost and the majority of chasers this week even at -4 or -3 are multiple winners on PGA tour, it's never over until it is, just in the past few years I have witnessed being on players who have won events coming from an incredible 8 shots off the leader, not easy to do but it all depends on what the leaders do on the front 9.

#Tips	Wins	Units	Net Profit	ROI
18	1	20.00	-5.30	-26.50%