PGA Valero Texas Open 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

Some of what we sent out for Jordy @ the Valspar-

• 24th x SG: T2G
• 33rd x SG: OTT
• 58th x SG: APG
• 31st x SG: ARG
• 65th x SG: PUT
• 62% GIR
• BTA-below tour average for driving accuracy in 2025
• 5% made cuts in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3)
• 1% top 25 in 2025 + 33.33% in 2025 (1/3)
• 07 stroke avg
• 13 x PGA Wins

The above is from our database.

Below is some of the summary we sent out for the PGA Genesis Invitational @ $110.

"We were following JS and deliberately left him alone last week @ Pebble Beach & I will be the first to admit that when I saw him up in the T10 coming into day 3 @ -10. I did think perhaps I made an error.

I mean we do a lot of homework here @ PGT and we watch so much golf & if you read previous analysis of Jordan from us, we are fans, JS has quoted tom many media outlets "I was better than Scott".

So last week @ PGA The Players, JS was good one day & ordinary the next undoing all his good work. Below are his stats over 72 holes-

• 66th x SG: OTT losing -2.300 strokes
• T38 x GIR @ 61.11% (44/72)
• 8th x SG: APG @ +5.435 strokes gained
• 16th x SG: ARG @ +2.854 SG
• T61 x SG: Putting losing -2.336 strokes
• T32 x SG: Total @ +3.653
• Driving Accuracy @ 50.00% (28/56)

As advised, he had some good days and not so good with his best day being Day 2 when carding 68 (-4).

JS has been good overall in his last 4 events with T32, T11, T12 & T29 across some of the more difficult courses on tour, he will have to be on high alert this weekend and will not be able to afford to have too many errors.

After opening around $32 on betfair late on Monday Night (1130pm) he has not met with too much support and has slightly drifted out to $36 which is a far cry from the $110 & similar he went around in his earlier events in 2026.

JS this week can lean on his generally good Iron play and has been good with the putter of late around a course he has been in the finish in 2 of the last 3 years with his best result a T3 in 2023.

I would suggest +$40 as more than fair because if he can remain consistent over 4 days it may well be the event he breaks through in.

For the Valero Open Jordy just needs to perform over 4 days, watching him find other fairways @ Valspar and then he would do such an incredible approach shot and sink it from 15 feet to then unravel on the next Tee off.

It was a comedy of errors as he even found the coffee cart so we wrote much about his injury in other analysis for other events but his confidence is growing by the week and despite many using San Antonio as a final tune up for the MASTERS net week he can lean on his growing confidence and if he can keep it on the fairways (currently)-

• 122^nd x Driving Accuracy @ 55%- 198 fairways hit from 360 possible
• 32^nd x SG: APG
• 23^rd x SG: Total
• 47^th x SG: T2G
• 22^nd x SG: PUT

All we need to see is 4 days of consistent golf & we much rather JS here than at the Masters, it's a course he likes as he won in 2021-

• 2025 x T12
• 2024 x T10
• 2023 x DNP
• 2022 x T35
• 2021 x 1st

currently JS is the 4^th favourite in win markets around $22 on betfair, it is a fair price and perhaps he might be longer odds after 18 holes so watch that space. There are others The Stig & MJ like more at bigger odds.

***Updated odds as of 1st April due to Colin Morikawa withdrawal.

From our own database rankings-

• 54^th x SG: T2G
• 61^st x SG: OTT
• 48^th x SG: APG
• 120^th x SG: ARG
• 26^th x SG: PUT
• 14% x Greens in Regulation
• BTA- below tour avg
• 7% made cuts in 2025 + 85.71% in 2026 with (6/7)
• 2% top 25 in 2025 + 57.1% in 2026 (4/7)
• 4/4 x SG: Metrics
• 95 stroke avg
• 1 x PGA win

I can say with certainty we have not selected MM in anything so far in 2026 and from memory I think we did select him when 2^nd in this event in 2025, perhaps our current members can confirm, I mean I can look it up but………………

MM arrives @ TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in good steady form so far in 2026 which has seen results at 6 of the 7 events he played-

• T32 x PGA Players Championship
• T13 x PGA Arnold Palmer
• T29 x PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am
• T13 x PGA WM Phoenix Open
• 10^th x PGA Farmers Insurance Open
• T24 X PGA Sony Open in Hawaii

The consistent results see Maverick move up to 27th in OWGR & 44^th in FedEx points, his highest ranking in OWGR that I can recall and will see him back up in his 2^nd MASTERS next weekend.

Of importance this week is his under 70 scores in those 7 events-

• 17 of 26 rounds under 70 for a SR of 65.38%

Noting in our own PGT database his avg score is 69.95 strokes which is across all events played in 2025, so he is super consistent despite no wins thus far in 2026.

His main strength is his putting prowess, and he is currently ranked only 66^th yet is still resulting as well as he has in 2026.

What he has improved in 2026 is-

• 24^th x SG: Total
• 22^nd x SG: Tee to Green (T2G)
• 33^rd x SG: OTT
• 37^th x SG: ARG

So if comparing our own model from 2025 he is the big improver overall across all PGA players on tour in 2026, now we need to see this week as his 75 (+3) on day 4 @ PGA Players Championship saw him fall quickly in placings yet he still had positive strokes in all but Approach the Green (SG: APG), only losing -0.671 strokes overall.

At the Arnold Palmer he still lost strokes on Approach but picked up more than +2.729 strokes OTT along with +2.281 strokes ARG. A repeat here sees him ready to strike after 54 holes, both those events were on the very difficult TPC Sawgrass & Bay Hill courses.

With MM current price around $36 on betfair he did open up much shorter @ $30, 2 days ago, we would suggest he is a safe option but like Jordy he too needs to be on song all 4 days, none of this up and down, even though the field still has many of the best OWGR players it is some what known for value in betting markets with many key players tuning up for next week.

He is another we like, as advised the safer option but again a few players are better value coming up.

***odds updated as of 1st April due to withdrawal of Colin Morikawa

Some of the Analysis we sent out when selecting RF @ $65 to win the PGA Players Championships on 12^th March.

• 69th x SG: T2G
• 43rd x SG: OTT
• 95th x SG: APG
• 116th x SG: ARG
• 77th x SG: PUT
• 3% x GIR
• 69 x DA
• 7% x made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (5/5)
• 8 x top 25 in 2025 + 80% in 2026 (4/5)
• ¾ x SG metrics + 4/4 in 2026
• 79 stroke avg
• 6 x PGA Wins

Wow before we launch into a song & dance about RF then let's dive into what he is doing so well of late-

• 11 x straight cuts made
• 11 x straight strokes gained total (low of +1 per day to a high of +3 SG)
• 11 x straight SG: OTT
• 10 of 11 events in +SG: APG
• 14 of 17 events in positives SG: PUT

Super consistent!

Last week around a very challenging course-

• T9 x SG: OTT @ +2.395
• T8 x GIR @ 68.06% (49/72)
• 33rd x SG: APG losing -0.304 strokes
• 33rd x SG: ARG @ +0.062
• 5th x SG: PUT @ +4.714
• T9 x SG: Total @ +6.867
• T5 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (40/56)

I was watching Fowler very closely and although he appeared frustrated, he was better than most across all 4 days with-

• 69, 69, 72, 70 for -8

The Stig & MJ can overlook his last 3 years around TPC Sawgrass as he is playing some of his best golf in a while, but his scrambling was first class last weekend-

• 2nd x Scrambling @ 82.61% (19/23)

This course really demands players thinking about the 2nd shot, if Fowler can get good close hole proximity, then his better putting than most can convert at least +4 strokes over the 4 days versus the field.

On current stats and how he is playing solid golf we think the $65 on betfair very fair considering the? marks of the 2 favourites.

• This week in San Antonio I expect an improved showing from his most recent CUT @ last weeks Texas Open as he was-
• T5 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (40/56) @ Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer)
• The event before Texas last week RF was 8 straight events (32 rounds) in positive strokes gained on Approach

If he can play like he was in the proceeding weeks leading into Texas then I expect the short price, I consider short as usually we select him around that $50 to $65 price bracket, however he really is one of the most up trending players currently on PGA tour.

RF opened around $32 on betfair late Monday night AEST and is on a slight drift to the now $36 available, I think he is better priced above +$40 so try getting matched above that.

He was & is on our radar and has been creeping up our player database in rankings since early 2026. After resting Sepp Straka due to his inconsistency, we prefer Rickie even @ $36 over Sepp @ $28 again try getting matched for +$40.

We chose the swede for the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational & backed up on him for the following PGA the Players Championship.

Both events he started @ $140 & $100 so there is a reason we keep following. (see his summary/analysis on the website) as its rather extensive & rather than bomb everyone again we can focus on his highlights.

• T24 x PGA Arnold Palmer with rounds 72, 72, 69, 73 for -2
• T32 x PGA The Players Championships with rounds of 71, 71, 73, 71 for -2

Again, as we have highlighted other players that both courses are very difficult and it was the same tight courses in Europe which saw him win in late 2025 x 2-

• 1^st x DPWT Betfred British Masters
• 1^st x DPWT BMW PGA Championships

In the previous summary when he was selected, we noted his fine 2^nd @ the end of 2025 @ PGA HERO world challenge, he was beaten in a playoff by a red-hot Hideki Matsuyama.

These are his stats from the Arnold Palmer-

• 28^th x SG: OTT @ +0.381 strokes gained
• 32^nd x SG: APG @ +0.114 SG
• 12^th x SG: ARG @ +1.600 SG
• 40^th x SG: PUT losing -1.228 strokes
• T24 x SG: Total @ +0.867
• T9 x Driving Accuracy @ 67.86% (38/56)
• T28 x Driving Distance @ 305.30 yds
• T11 x Greens in Regulation @ 65.28% (47/72)

I think around this course his higher than most driving accuracy especially over +300 yards can see him set up nicely for shot 2, I think he is a far better chance this weekend, a Win here for anyone not yet qualified means entry into next weeks Major, I like the swede more than his younger countryman this week, ABERG more suited to next week.

This swede however has 2 results worth considering in only his 2 attempts at this course in the last 5 years-

• 2025 x DNP (did not play)
• 2024 x T14
• 2023 x T15
• 2022 x DNP
• 2021 x DNP

The Stig & MJ like to put down reasons why we like what we like & we much prefer him here this week, his game is better than what most are seeing. He opened around $38 on Monday night & his $42 now shows me has good support around this price, sure be cheeky and see closer to tee off is round $50 can be matched, worthed a try for at least 24 hours before just accepting the $42. We did send him out when we thought he was a great chance when $140 & $100.

It is a bitter pill to swallow but this is far weaker than those signature events.

I also think AN is more focused this week to result, of course markets have factored this in but of note his MASTERS record is not good-

• 3 of 4 x Missed Cuts @ 2023, 2018 & 2017 editions

A player we are yet to produce in 2026 but did a few times through both 2024 & 2025 and he has gone very close to winning @-

• 2^nd x PGA 2024 Valero Open
• 2^nd x PGA 2023 The Memorial Tournament

In his 221 career events on the PGA, he has amassed over $21 Million without 1 win so we usually tread carefully when they have 0 wins on the tough PGA circuit.

He has 1 Win on the KFT (Korn Ferry Tour) which we follow as well.

• DM also has 69 x T25 (31.2% SR) in his 221-event career since turning Pro in 2018 & that stat alone is up there with some of the T40 players on tour, of the 69 x T25 he has nearly 50% in the T10 (29).

Even though he is winless thus far you would have to say he has a far better chance to win before one of the new KFT players do in 2026.

He is one player whose skill set does come on show around this course, with-

• 2025 x T18
• 2024 x 2nd
• 2023 x DNP
• 2022 x T18
• 2021 x T34

His Putting is why we select this resident from Jupiter, Florida and whilst he has not paid us in a win, several years ago we did play in other markets such as T10 & T20 only but as the price is now so diluted it offers little value.

But I have been watching DM very closely and now he is on a course he loves he may be one of those players you see stick high up on the leaderboard and stay there due to his putting, normally he picks up +1.50 strokes per round on the field.

We often here about the Sam Burns etc about Putting but DM in his last-

• 22 of 25 events has been in +strokes gained in SG: PUT

His overall SG stats are quite surprising overall; we have him at 53^rd in our own 115 player rotation but are adding another 20 players this week but he was ranked-

• 4^th in SG: PUT in all of 2025 PGA players

Normally in stronger events he would be around +$100 in win markets so due to the lack of depth here we have to accept $55 on betfair, he opened around $44 & quickly found strong support @ $50, he is only now slowly drifting to $55 on betfair.

He is just another player we have to grin and accept his discounted price this week, I doubt he drifts beyond +$60 but we know his putter will turn up, imagine of he can pick up +SG in a few other metrics, even small like +0.50, his +1.50 to +2 in putting each day will go along way to see him feature on the final 18 holes.

Many including us @ PGT are waiting for the return of RICO.

We all know & we sent this out about his ball striking in 2025 was CRISP-

• 2^nd x SG: T2G with +1.301 strokes gained on avg per round (76 measured)

The Player who was 1^st of course is Scott Scheffler who was +2.361 SG (over 72 rounds) but what we must remind ourselves that Rico was ahead of Tommy, Morikawa, SWK, Rory & company.

Rico is still 0 x PGA wins which is so surprising, nearly shocking with those key stats, we do also know he was TERRIBLE putting so despite also sitting in-

• 2^nd in BALL Striking in 2025
• 8^th x SG: APG
• 2^nd x GIR @ 73.11% nearly knocked off 1^st

For all his good work through all of 2025 to sit as high as he did amongst the elite of the game but to then lose-

• Losing -0.997 strokes per round in 2025

He was ranked the 1^st, the worst putter on PGA tour in 2025.

To put that into very clear prospective that is -4 strokes per event, he negates all the good so even if he were to go +2.56 SG in APG pre round, he could never win an event with such poor putting figures.

NOW

There was a massive change, a significant change in late 2025 when we started seeing Rico take to the "Broomstick Putter", thanks to golf.com-

"After losing 10.5 strokes putting over four rounds at the Wyndham Championship, Hoey, who says he has always been a "streaky" putter, opted to make a big change. Hoey started working with his putting coach, Marcus Potter, and his caddie, Bryan Martin, to find a solution."

The change SIGNIFICANT-

From the PGA Bank of Utah Championships "I ended up breaking two course records with it within the first two weeks. I'm like, all right, I think this is it."

So, what we saw from October 2025 to the end of November 2025, his last event for the season-

• T4 x PGA Baycurrent in Japan
• 2^nd x PGA Bank of Utah Championships
• T21 x PGA Worldwide Technology
• T22 x PGA Butterfield Bermuda
• T7 x PGA RSM Classic

Those better results in the back end of 2025 saved his card for 2026 PGA as he finished 54^th overall which he sat in 116^th before those 5 events.

Now the "Broomstick Putter" did not turn him into an elite putter but it changed that monster deficit into a positive.

So far in 2026 he has been a bit hot & cold from 10 events, but what I have seen with my own eyes is that belief again and he backed it up in his last 2 events, We like back-to-back results-

• T28 x PGA Texas Children's Open with rounds of 67, 68, 68, 70 for -7
• T26 x PGA Valspar Championships with rounds of 71, 68, 70, 72 for -3

Last week in Houston, the difference he only lost over 76 holes –1.260 strokes, wow!

• 6^th x SG: Off the Tee @ +3.525
• 37^th x SG: Approach to Green @ +1.041
• 33^rd x SG: Around the Green @ +0.745
• 56^th x SG: Putting losing -1.260 strokes
• T28 x SG: Total @ +4.052
• T20 x Driving Accuracy @ 59.62% (31/52)
• T34 x Greens in Regulation @ 68.06% (49/72)

Now Rico is getting back to normality, well his new normality I think @ $80 on betfair he could be the sleeper, especially around a course where you need to set up for that 2^nd shot and even 3^rd on the long par 4 & 5 holes.

I think he is decent value due to his ball striking which pays dividends around this course, If he starts well it will do his confidence the world of good, he has had solid support on betfair between $70 to $80, its based on how good he was or could be but this event could easily go to a player usually just out of the fringe (players ranked 50^th to 100^th) if they could have 4 very good days, they shine.

Not normally so bold picking virgin PGA players but it feels very possible this week, you could try getting matched for +$90 to the $100 bracket, there is currently unmatched @ $85 & $90 so possibly NO at this stage but betting can go crazy this far out.

From the Valspar-

• 74th x SG: OTT losing -5.243 strokes
• 8th x SG: APG @ +4.194 strokes gained
• 2nd x SG: ARG @ +7.646
• 66th x SG: PUT losing -1.383 stokes
• T18 x SG: Total @ +5.214
• T71 x Driving Accuracy @ 38.46% (20/52)
• 28th x Driving Distance @ 307.00 yds
• 9th x Longest Drive @ 355.00 yds
• T72 x GIR @ 48.61% (35/72)

It was a tough event for TF last week but despite him losing 5 strokes Off the Tee he managed to gain +7.5 around the greens.

He is a player that is a course fit around Houston and there was closer to $100 before the favourite withdrew.

• 32nd x 2025
• 2nd x 2024
• 1st x 2023

I have seen with my own eyes the rapid improvements around the greens with TF and so far in 2026 he has been consistent with-

• 5 from 8 cuts made in 2026
• 3 x T25 in 2026

***In a field this week where you will be hardly penalised for finding the rough unlike the previous 3 weeks TF can go to work around the greens, currently around $80 on betfair but I expect him to remain relatively firm as punters search out course fit players.

This week in San Antonio I can forgive Big Tony from last weeks Houston event, his putting the first 36 holes okay hut n day 3 & 4 he lost a combined -2.560 shots, normally acceptable if you are picking up +7 or +8 in other strokes gained metrics and normally his putting is not terrible.

His SG: APG has been on song and even in Houston he was –

27^th x SG: Approach to Green @ +2.332

Last week his big hitting should have suited him around a course he had such great results.

He just did not turn up but his form leading into it was solid.

It is his last chance to show us something or he will be axed from the database, he has been in positive strokes gained total in 5 of his last 7.

Around $100 currently for Big tony is quite baffling really, I have him based around $150 to be fair, we like backing up on players, it has proven fruitful, so he is on his last chance as we already have sacked Henley, Sepp, Harman, SWK & JJ Spaun is on the reserve bench, we are waiting.

Of the 14 players this week he would be roughly 10^th on my like list.

He was playing well before Houston; this you have to remind yourself of.

JT was to us like Russell Henley, always expected to perform well but like so many players you get tired of them underperforming.

It is NOT usual that we select a player that has missed 3 cuts from his last 4 events but in those events, I am not sure if he has changed clubs & or is trying various new shots from changing his grip, it's like watching him trial and not play.

Last week in Houston he was actually-

• SG: APG +3.109 strokes gained

But he then lost -2.552 strokes in putting, it was like watching someone deliberately trying to fail.

I keep seeing little positives in some of his game, expecting him to go on with it and not be sent home early after only playing 36 holes.

• Greens in Regulation @ 72.22% (26/36)

So his wedge/Iron play on song & I am jot sure if he is just plain burnt out but the event he did play all 4 days which was the PGA The Players Championship.

• T50 x PGA The Players Championship with rounds of 76, 69, 71, 73 for +1

That event was not as bad as it may first read, on day 4 he sent a 356 yard rocket from the tee box on 5^th hole way out of bounds, not just but way out, even I was like "HOW DO YOU DO THAT?" it was a somewhat tricky hole with water both sides with bunkers in between narrowing a dog leg, not many others did what he did though.

The result was a triple bogey on the par 4, 5^th hole (7 shots), he surprised the commentators by then going birdie, birdie, birdie on holes 10, 13, & 14 before yes giving it back on holes 15 & 18.

Whilst typing this up I went and checked out TOUR CAST from when he had 3 x straight T40 results @ The American Express, WM Phoenix Open & Pebble Beach.

A few wayward tee shots but mostly sat between 55 to 60% of fairways hit, those courses especially Pebble Beach was tough, yet he played well.

I sacked Henley as the great pretender so hopefully he does not win here but this is my gut/instinct play this week as we are seeing glimpses of good play spoiled by odd errors from him, his attitude is hard to figure out but I am reminded when he won the 2024 Shriners Open he was CUT from 3 events then finished T33 & T33 at the 2 events before the 1^st.

That was off very baffling figures/stats, some turn up and it all falls in place so around $130 on betfair after opening at $75, I would suggest trying to get matched for closer to +$200, there is no interest in him presently, punters are just seeing his latest results.

He can come from nowhere and has done so in 2 of his 3 x PGA wins. Watch to see if his Iron play is hot, if he started sinking a few putts, he is very capable of running hot.

***odds updated as of 1st April @ 1030am due to withdrawal of Colin Morikawa

I will include what we sent out last week then summarise on "what could have been"

From his T24 @ The Players Championships-

• 7th x SG: OTT @ +3.815
• 30th x SG: APG @ +1.891
• 59th x SG: ARG losing -1.487 strokes
• 32nd x SG: PUT @ +1.434 strokes gained
• T24 x SG: Total @ +5.653
• T20 x Driving Accuracy @ 66.07% (37/56)
• 7th x Driving Distance @ 306.40 yds
• T21 x Longest Drive @ 345.00 yds
• T33 x GIR @ 62.50% (45/72)

WM was even better the previous fortnight when he strutted his new form for a-

• T6 x PGA Cognizant Classic with 68, 70, 68, 67 for -11

WM is no stranger to us as we have selected him a few times in 2025 and he does own a few low rounds such as the 61 when winning the ISCO in 2025 along with a few 63s at various events since.

On a course that should set up rather nicely The Stig & I only had a conversation regarding him on Tuesday when there was as much as $230 available, not sure if someone tipped him publicly, but you can only get around $110 on betfair, very possible he drifts after then market settles.

This week @ PGA Valero Open

Perhaps I was expecting so much but once Gary Woodland took control & his stats backed it up as much as I watched most players, I did feel as though WM could have had a better weekend.

• T44 x PGA Texas Children's Open with rounds of 69, 68, 70, 68 for -5

Although not as good as a finish as was Denny McCarthy I felt that on day 1 WM would go back-to-back birdies then a bogey would just throw his confidence, he then played safe golf from there any other bogeys followed.

Day 2 he struggled with his putter and he missed a few close putts that would have changed his front 9 (started on 10), on holes 3, 4 & 8 birdies and he finished the day -2 (68) but after watching live players I do a bit of homework to check the TOUR CAST and quickly track shots to refresh the brain, you can go through 18 holes in less than 5 minutes.

On day 3 he started okay before faltering again and he finished with 3 birdies & 3 bogeys so par for the day, he had me scratching my head & I was resigned to the fact that he had no chance to win from there so all eyes were on Garry.

On day 4 he looked like a different person, he started with 3 x birdies & 1 bogey on the front 9 then after the turn a bogey on 11 & you could see him crumble, I thought the Hojgaard twins lose it after missing a putt, he was upset with himself, a birdie on the 13^th then losing that by giving it back with a bogey on 14^th before a surprise EAGLE on 16^th and guess what he gave 1 shot back with a bogey on 17^th.

You see it every week some players just try and sometimes it just does not go your way.

However, we have summarised previously that he can shoot low scores when in the mood, Being only 25 yrs old I think personally he should spend a season over in DPWT to tough it out more despite being in lesser company, the DPWT has proven they all have to fight more & generally we see like we did with Ryan Gerard a swagger when he returned from Mauritiusm the PGA players are playing a softer depth of players, its why the PGA is so hard to win on tour.

Anyway, some more of this from Willy-

• T9 x Greens in Regulation @ 73.61% (53/72)
• 29^th x SG: Approach to Green @ +1.812

We might not be getting the $230 like last week as he is around $130 on betfair after opening around $110, I tried getting matched between $150 to $180, still unmatched so may just have to accept $130 to $140.

Another who must start well.

I am reminded of CK so many times and he caught us off guard when he lost in a 3 way play off at PGA RSM Classic last year.

We were following him to some degree.

What we sent out when CK was $440 for the PGA WM Phoenix Open-

• 33rd x SG: T2G
• 76th x SG: OTT
• 33rd x SG: APG
• 56th x SG: ARG
• 153rd x SG: PUT
• 02% GIR
• 22% DA
• 5% made cuts in 2025 + 0 in 2026 (0/2)
• 1% top 25 in 2025
• 06 stroke avg
• 6 x PGA wins

CK has been on the PGA tour since 2007 and it is not easy winning 6 x PGA so he is a player that we will often refer to as a "Grinder" he has to right set of skills to be nice and steady through 72 holes, in 4 of the stokes gained metrics he does incredibly well but like 30% on players currently on tour it is his putter that can let him down.

• That was not on show @ The Amex with +1.60 SG: PUT

His good play comes from his bread & butter APG & ARG which lifts his overall Tee to Green play up into positive SG Total, but when we last tipped him in the back end of 2025 @ the Rocket Classic he ended up in T2 after a 3-way playoff @ -22.

CK had a bit of a run which started at US Open (Major)-

• T9 x PGA FedEx St Jude
• T5 x PGA Wyndham
• T14 x PGA 3M Open
• T2 x PGA Rocket Classic
• T12 x PGA US Open (Major)

That consistent run saw him from June to late November 2025 go for a long 5 month run so possibly explains why he was only fair in the 2 x PGA 2026 events.

He is one player that has lots of scope to be able to improve on his current form, he is a veteran and, on a course, where ball striking will set up for birdie opportunities, he can maintain his current putting to be thereabouts when it matters on day 3.

We are under no illusions @ PGT his current price around $440 on betfair and on a big drift tell us what others think his chances are, His best can see him compete, another we need a strong start to day 1 but I would suggest trying to get matched on betfair for +$500 and beyond.

This week @ Valero Open

After being cut when selected, nothing worse as we were flying with terrific high % of getting most players through to day 3 but he missed 2 from 3 then rebounded strongly for-

• T47 x PGA Arnold Palmer
• T27 x PGA The Players (a very good result)
• T51 x PGA Texas Open

He has now put 3 results straight up, so he did have a good 70% making cuts in 2025 along with his proven ¾ SG metrics and even looking at his last 12 events, he has finished in at least 75% of positives strokes in SG Metrics.

CK going around @ $170 on betfair will entice me enough this week as there is a reason he has won 6 x PGA events; you could try for +$200.

I think he is good value as he is playing better than what his stats which are only history as recorded are telling us, a few things could have fallen his way, his stats would be far different (better), he of course needs a good clean & safe start, a -4 on day 1 would be a great start here.

***Odds update as of 1st April @ 1030am due to withdrawal of Colin Morikawa.

What we sent out for the Valspar-

From the PGA Cognizant-

• 151st x SG: T2G
• 106th x SG: OTT
• 155th x SG: APG
• 127th x SG: ARG
• 81st x SG: PUT
• 36% GIR
• BTA Driving Accuracy in 2025
• 50 made cuts in 2025 + 75% in 2026 (3/4)
• 80% top 25 in 2025 + 0 in 2026
• 62 stroke avg
• 6 x PGA Wins

The very laid-back MH could be the player to upset here as his form in 2026 has been steadily improving his overall game-

• 10 of his last 12 made cuts

His overall strokes gained from T2G has steadily been improving and with so many holes around here requiring sweet striking from the 100 to 200 yards he can display-

• 1st x Approaches from 75-100 yards
• 10th x going for the green @ 79.55% attempts

This week if he can put a few 66 days together (-5) & display what we saw when 27th @ Amex his -17 was some of his best golf, he had a nice little stretch of results from T19 @ Procore to the T9 @ Bank of Utah which keeping it on the fairways proved very fruitful.

He brings more proven form into this weekend unlike Nico before him in the markets & the 2 play entirely different games but Homa has been in positive strokes in T2G in 6 of his last 8 & without the worlds higher ranked players he can put his hand up.

He opened @ $60 on betfair and honestly, I thought that was value so a bit shocked to see him drift to $75 well after already backing him @ $60 as I thought he would firm. If he maintains and can sit around that -4 to -5 each day, then no shock to see him winning here.

This week @ Valspar-

Max has not played at this event in the last 4 editions (DNP) and we go back to 2021 where he was T6 but that has not frightened us away from backing up on him.

Why-

He has had some good rounds of golf recently-

• 12 of 22 rounds under 70

Last week around the Players he was all over the place but recognised metrics he needed to improve quickly-

• Day 1 x Driving Accuracy @ 28.57% (4/14) was ranked T119

He joined Scott Scheffler early, but Max picked up his game-

• Day 2 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (10/14) for T22
• Day 3 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (11/14) for T4

His best strokes gained metric across 72 holes was-

• 4th x SG: Approach to Green @ +3.527

What was baffling was he did not make his 2nd shot easy with only finding 28% of fairways so for his APG so good we feel he is on the cusp.

He is one of the players around the current price bracket of $100 on betfair that we think is value this week, of course he must be consistent over all 4 days, don't they all!.

For the Valero Open

Max was cut from the Valspar and no doubt was a shock to him, it was to us as he had already made 75% of cuts in 2026 & what he was showing in 80% of his events in 2026 was total positivity.

I had him as a reserve to win the MASTERS, not sure about that now but he & Fowler were shining bright, so what happened at Valspar?

He lost -4.28 shots over 36 holes only in Florida & Copperhead claimed another player, the lost strokes were made up of -1.47 shots OTT & -2.44 shots SG: PUT.

Putting that into perspective he had been in positive strokes gained in-

• 8 of his previous 10 events in +SG: OTT
• 8 of his previous 10 events in +SG: PUT

Hopefully we can call Valspar an anomaly.

Round 1 @ Copperhead saw

• 7 x bogeys
• 1 x double bogey

That does not happen too often in the career of Max Homa.

Looking forward to him bouncing back well and around $170 on betfair he opened at $75 on Monday night AEST. He has been drifting from $150 to $160 then out to $170. I would try for +$200 for certain.

If he returns to the MH we saw in the previous 4 before being cut, he can be in this for a long way and he & MK then last player I have as the true value, diamonds in the rough.

The Wolverine & if you do not watch golf, once you see him you will get why the nickname.

CR was not initially in our PGT database of 115 players, now that we have added 20 so the player roster is heavier with 135 players CR has forced his way into the T100 rather quickly.

Since the PGA Bank of Utah last year in late October 2025 (T33) CR made-

• 11 of 13 events made cut (84.6% SR)

His best finish was in the event straight after Utah and in the PGA World Wide Technology in  Mexico he remained strong with consistent days in all 4 days whilst he sat in 4^th on day 1 @ -8 (64) he proved he was not going anywhere with another -7 (65) he remained in 4^th but on moving day (day 3) Ramey showed consistency with 67 (-5), HIGGO (we were on) carded an incredible 61 ( lost it on day 4) but on day 4 when many of the leaders faded CR shot a 65 (-5) to only get rolled by Ben Griffin who shot 63 on day 4 to steal victory.

His effort to finish @ -27 was impressive and from there we saw a further 4 x T40 results plus paydays in those other 6 events.

After kicking off his 2026 in Hawaii @ Sony Open, he looked rusty when finishing T71 but from then on, he had good finishes in the next 7 of 8 events, the best of those-

• T22 x PGA Farmers Insurance Open @ -10
• T17 x PGA Cognizant Beach Classic @ -8
• T27 x PGA The Players Championships @ -3
• T28 x PGA Texas Children's Open @ -7

Last week in Houston-

• 52^nd x SG: Off the Tee losing -0.904 strokes
• 35^th x SG: Approach to Green @ +1.273
• 67^th x SG: Around the Green losing -1.784 strokes
• 8^th x SG: Putting @ +5.466
• T28 x SG: Total @ 4.052
• T34 x Driving Accuracy @ 53.85% (28/52)
• T38 x Greens in Regulation @ 65.28% (47/72)

I am not overly concerned that CR lost -2.60 strokes as he gained +5.466 in putting as Ramey sits very high in putting from all PGA tour players-

• 10^th x SG: PUT in 2026 over all PGA players
• 1^st in Putting inside 3 feet @ 100% (total 309) attempts

That last stat is crazy, 100% meaning from 309 putts he had never missed.

So, we want him to get withing 3 feet of all shots on the green please.

He is trending very well, and he is playing good grinding numbers week in week out, his strong putting can take him along way this week, unlike a few non-PGA winners he has already won once @ 2022 PGA Corales Puntacana Championships along with a few close 2nds @ PGA events.

Finally, not forgetting to mention his best result in this event was in 2025 when T5 so being a grinder I am happy to take around $230 on betfair at time of summary (it is 230am Wednesday morning) so I expect you may be able to try & get matched at least around $260 to $270 on betfair.

***odds updated as of 1st April @ 1030am due to withdrawal of Colin Morikawa.

From the Valspar-

• 38th x SG: T2G
• 101st x SG: OTT
• 35th x SG: APG
• 43rd x SG: ARG
• 103rd x SG: PUT
• 99% x GIR
• BTA- DA
• 5% made cuts in 2025 + 57.2 % in 2026 (4/7)
• 9 top 25 in 2025 + 14.25% in 2026 (1/7)
• 2/4 x SG metrics
• 18 stroke avg
• 1 x PGA win + 1 x DPWT win

When MK won his 1st event on the DP World Tour, he defeated some very highly ranked players on OWGR when he won with -16.

Just a few of the players who could NOT run him down were, Min Woo Lee, Elvis Smylie (won since on LIV) Brooks Kopeka (who is getting better each week on PGA), Jayden Schaper, Ryan Fox.

We liked what we saw early in 2026 in the first 4 events he contested, and it has only been in the very last 3 events in much deeper & stronger fields he has gone over par in.

Like many on tour he is stacked with plenty or raw ability, like most they all struggle to bring it over all 4 days, but he tees off in group 36 with Bud Cauley & Adam Svensson who will not be in the media spotlight & this may provide him with ample space to getting down to business.

In fields where 30% of the line up are yet to win on PGA tour and or out of form there is no reason to think he cannot figure this weekend with his stats looking far better than what his actual results have been.

I went too early & took $220 last night (trying to save time) but I would suggest not recommending that he could easily be +$250 when tee off is in approx 30 hours as there is not much I am seeing in support presently on betfair. Be patient and his price should drift, again not assured it will.

This week @ San Antonio

We like value players and if Michael Kim can find his putting form, he can put lights out to the field here. I remember watching Anthony Kim win on LIV tour in Adelaide not long ago and he is proof that any player has the ability on any tour, in other words they are all pros and if they have a great run including flukey luck (like balls hitting branches and finding greens instead of going out of bounds type of luck) then you gotta have faith.

Although AK does not have the best course history, I have seen him recently @ Valspar and his around the greens form looked strong-

• 9^th x SG: Around the Green @ +3.150
• 20^th x SG: Putting @ +3.085

A nice pick up of +6.235 it's a shame over 72 holes MK lost -2.995 strokes in SG: APG which from time to time he can be hit or miss but he has shown in 9 of his last 14 events he has been in +SG: APG so he just needs to be focused.

I just think its imperative MK starts well and the confidence can grow from that, a slow start could spell trouble, but I like him @ $260 on betfair to prove bookies wrong. Do not discount a possible +$300 on betfair either, you can try but at time of summary there was plenty of $260 available to be matched.

***odds updated as of 1st April @ 1030am due to late withdrawal of Colin Morikawa, he was one of our players.