PGA TOUR Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

**Some of what we sent out for CM @ St Jude when around $32

One of the game’s elite ball strikers, which we saw plenty of around the links course when he won @ the PGA AT & T Pebble Beach back in February, it was a start of a nice little run-

• T4 x PGA RBC Heritage in Mid-April
• T7 x PGA Masters
• 5^th x PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational
• T7 x PGA Genesis Invitational
• 1^st x PGA AT & T Pebble Beach in Mid-February

His last 12 events he was in +SG: APG, a look closer we know of his back injury and how he attempted to manage it with results proving he should have just taken time away as he went T62 @ PGA Cadillac Championship in early May and he bumbled along in discomfort until the PGA Championships in Mid-May, that event it was terrible watching him try walking at the end of each day and by day 4 it looked like a 90 year old Collin Morikawa hobbling around the course.

A nice 4-week period in between events and he returned @ RBC Heritage in Canada and looked a little better and the results proved he could swing with at least 60% more freely, he trusted the mechanisms of his injury and it was very evident he had got the better of the back injury with his 3 most recent placings of-

• T18 x The OPEN Championships
• T3 x PGA Travelers Championships
• T17 x US Open

2 of the most recent 3 were majors and we kept a very close watch on all his swings to see if there were any restrictions, he looked smooth in his action.

If there was any chink in his game it may well, be he has lost strokes in the past 3 events around the greens, not a concern as he only lost -0.54 strokes @ The OPEN, -0.70 strokes lost @ Travelers & only losing -0.48 strokes in SG: ARG @ US Open.

On the flip side the major positive he negated that by picking up strokes in all other SG metrics we measure.

2026 PGA stats

• 9^th x SG: Total
• 7^th x SG: T2G
• 27th x SG: OTT
• 12th x DA @ 67.98%
• 1st x SG: APG
• 17th x GIR @ 69.92%
• 85th x SG: ARG
• 86th x SG: PUT
• 14/16 cuts made in 2026 for 87.5%
• 7^th FedEx Cup points

By missing both fairways & greens in 2 events only CM drops down several places overall in his 2026 stats.

For the new season all stats will reset @ PGA Biltmore Championship Asheville on the 17^th September, we will be selecting players from DP World Tour to fill the void in between.

PGA TOUR Championship

Without skipping a heartbeat, he did what many of our players do and bounce back when a terrific but annoying T4 last week @ Bellerive GC.

A closer look reveals-

• 7^th x SG: Off the Tee @ +2.680
• T22 x Driving Accuracy @ 60.71% (34/56)
• 12^th x SG: Approach to Green @ +2.353
• T19 x Greens in Regulation @ 69.44% (50/72)
• 27^th x SG: Around the Green losing -0.468 strokes
• 14^th x SG: Putting @ +2.836
• T4 x SG: Total @ +7.400

Watching CM @ PGA St Jude where nothing was going right from his drive early to the lack of him finding fairways he made his 2^nd shot so difficult from the rough, his T52 told the story but also explains why some players just set up better on different courses.

CM was trending in the right direction, and you could see his body language shift exponentially around Bellerive last week, it helps if you find more than +60% of fairways.

• He had a low of 50% on day 1 finding only 7/14 fairways
• To a high of 71.43% on day 4 finding 10/14 fairways

When it matters the most both day 3 & 4 were his best days from the tee box.

Around the famous Eastlake GC he has proven he handles it well with-

• 2025 x T19
• 2024 x 2
• 2023 x T6
• 2022 x T21
• 2021 x T26

We were very interested to see where CM would open @ for the final & after opening very early around $25 in USA, he was $18 on betfair before settling @ $21, he has now firmed into $20 with as much as $4300 available to be matched.

CM is overdue, we suggest trying to get matched well above +$23.

**The strategy this week is 5 x players are selected for the TOUR Championship representing 16% of the field with only 30 players set to tee off, with only 5 we also can also provide a late mail if required!

Suggested 2 units a WIN.

odds update as of 3:11pm on 26th August.

We were keen on MF last week & this is some of what we sent out @ BMW Championships-

If timing & momentum is everything then MF is in the running for winning more events than any player on PGA Tour, he is aiming for 4 x wins in 2026.

2026 PGA stats

• 2nd x SG: Total
• 2nd x SG: T2G
• 49th x SG: OTT
• 16th x DA @ 67.49%
• 2nd x SG: APG
• 6th x GIR @ 70.95%
• 3rd x SG: ARG
• 72nd^t x SG: PUT
• 18/19 cuts made in 2026 for 94.7%
• 2nd in FedEx Cup points

If comparing MF with LA then we expect greater consistency, Fitzy is generally considered a safer option than the Swede and we like him more than LA based on odds and he knows how to win events.

Once known as a better putter, it is fair to say Fitzy has improved other aspects of his game in late 2026 and into 2026.

From St Jude last week

• 32^nd x SG: OTT @ +0.361
• T14 x Driving Accuracy @ 60.71% (34/56)
• 30^th x SG: APG @ +0.526
• T18 x Greens in Regulation @ 61.11% (44/72)
• 32^nd x SG: ARG losing -0.140 strokes
• 9^th x SG: PUT +3.612
• T12 x SG: Total @ +4.360

If we compare odds on the first 2 players selected, we personally will have these 2 swapped around, you know what you get due to MF Consistency, the only advantage LA has is length in driving distance over Fitzy, although not being penalised as much this week around Bellerive if not finding fairways you still have to be above +55% in driving accuracy.

The other factor is usually MF has less bogeys per event.

After opening around $28 on betfair he has found support mostly around $30 now, again confirming we are playing with Scheffler in the market, hopefully we have it right as in the W/O Scheffler markets MF is as low as $14.50 on bet365 & $18 on sportsbet.

PGA TOUR Championship

Now MF is back to better putting, his last 2 events have been his best from his 7 events we have to follow up for the grand final this week.

Eastlake GC form-

• 2025 x DNP (did not play)
• 2024 x DNP
• 2023 x T9
• 2022 x T15
• 2021 x DNP

MF was very good last week without being as brilliant as our winner Wyndham Clark was, there were some good efforts 2 Bellerive leading into this week & Fitzy showed us-

• 46^th x SG: OTT losing -2.689 strokes
• 44^th x SG: APG losing -3.568 strokes
• 19^th x SG: ARG @ +0.553
• 8^th x SG: PUT @ +4.105
• T28 x SG: Total losing -1.600 strokes

Losing a combined -6.257 strokes with his driver & irons last weekend is an anomaly in our opinion, it was detrimental to 2 of his 4 days last week, this alone has drifted his price from early to mid $20s to now an acceptable $30 on betfair.

@ $30 currently on betfair there is $9043 available to be matched but I would be trying for at least $34 to $38, his best is good enough and reiterating that was an anomaly last week, he generally is much better off the tee.

It is not just a matter of replicating previous picks nor can we not stick with players that have been so close for us & with only 30 players this week it really condenses the skillset but recent discussions with the Stig, there really is only a handful of players that can win this.

What we sent out for the BMW Championships when $38-

The New Jersey native is a player we come in & out for and it is all relevant to when we select him, bigger open courses are his forte, we compared CG with Cam Young this week as both are very similar with drivers (low & far) but we prefer CG this week due to his better putting overall.

So far Cam Young has lost shots in 7 of his last 9 events in putting.

2026 PGA stats

• 9th x SG: Total
• 19th x SG: T2G
• 11th x SG: OTT
• 143rd x DA @ 54.05%
• 48th x SG: APG
• 39th x GIR @ 68.89%
• 96th x SG: ARG
• 34th^t x SG: PUT
• 19/21 cuts made in 2026 for 90.5%
• 7th in FedEx Cup points

LAST WEEK around TPC Southwind CG lost strokes in around the greens & putting, this is not his normal, we have seen in his last 12 of 14 events where he has positive strokes gained in putting, this is a major improvement.

This week his focus only needs to be finding the fairway and setting up his 2^nd & 3^rd shots.

From St Jude

• 28^th x SG: OTT @ +0.659
• T26 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (32/56)
• 27^th x SG: APG @ +1.374
• T4 x Greens in Regulation @ 66.67% (48/72)
• T40 x SG: ARG losing -0.414 strokes
• 36^th x SG: PUT losing -0.260
• T30 x SG: Total @ +1.360

We do prefer when CG is a chaser, and we are waiting for tee off times at time of summary so we would like to see a safe start sitting a few shots off the leaders with 36 holes to play, there are no cuts again right through to the end of the season, the best CG is where he is stalking.

After opening around $30 on betfair , there is plenty of +$34, we are playing with Scheffler in the market, hopefully we have it right as in the W/O Scheffler market, but Gotterup is around $22 on bet365 & lower on sportsbet @ $20.

Regardless of what CG does this week he qualifies for the PGA TOUR Championships.

Odds update to $38 as of 19^th August @ 9am

PGA TOUR Championship

This course is another that sets up nicely for CG & at first glance his T4 last week @ PGA BMW may have looked disappointing but he set up with rounds of 64 & 67 before battling on day 3 & 4 with closing rounds of 68 & 69, he still finished with -12 for the weekend and he could have faded but day 4 he lost -2.578 strokes just in SG: APG which is significant overall-

• 16^th x SG: OTT @ +1.207
• T42 x DA @ 51.79% (29/56)
• 1st x Driving Distance @ 334.60 yds
• 1st x Longest Drive @ 374.00 yds
• 39^th x SG: APG losing -2.151 strokes
• T34 x GIR @ 63.89% (46/72)
• 4^th x SG: ARG @ +3.213
• 5^th x SG: PUT @ +5.132
• T4 x SG: Total @ +7.400

No one can knock CG, he simply is playing consistent golf, we normally do not include driving distance as a general rule but he will be hitting long around Eastlake GC & I am very interested to see where he settles by the start of day 3, he generally starts quickly and maintains, his putter looking great, he just needs to correct his iron play from last week which we know he can.

Eastlake GC form-

• 2025 x T10
• 2024 x DNP
• 2023 x DNP
• 2022 x DNP
• 2021 x DNP

The mere fact that CG has only played @ Eastlake GC once & the fact he is playing career golf better than 80% of this line up, results are what get him & us paid.

Unfortunately, it will be difficult to steal the 2026 Player title away from either Scheffler or Wyndham but then again, a victory here could be enough to steal the title, it is hard to say as there are other factors in play, good luck to Chris this weekend.

We are surprised CG opened around $26 on betfair late Monday night (AEST) he has now drifted to a healthy $32 ($6784 available on betfair) which is hard to comprehend why Ludvig is @ $23 & Xander is even shorter @ $14 on betfair, both players we have selected but both have been inconsistent and yes Xander does have better results than most around Eastlake and no doubt will shine at some point over the weekend, You have to back your judgement and we just think Chris has not yet proven he is fading.

If you can be cheeky & try and get matched for +$40, small increments each time and at worst case scenario work back.

After day 1 markets will dramatically shift so keep an eye on it as we often mention that a player who is only 3 shots off the leaders can x 2 to x 3 more.

Some of what we sent out when we thought he had a good chance @ PGA St Jude @ $48

The smiling Norwegian finally put it all together to defeat Scotti Scheffler @ PGA Travelers Championship in late June. It was a confidence boosting win as he was having mixed weeks, yet he was still relatively confident in all the interviews we watched before the victory.

VH had mentioned many times about the changes he had made in his game, and we all know that comes with time, also VH is not a player we often select either, off the top of my head maybe twice in the last 2 years, so we try and get him at the right time.

After winning he suffered “the mental letdown” that massive endorphin rush then followed by a crash usually, but he has also managed the CUT in England and arrives here nice and fresh of 4 weeks between events, just like Tommy.

It is his very good wedge & iron play that will see him contend over 72 holes this weekend. He went close in 2024 when T2 and oddly enough he was CUT from The OPEN in 2024 when 2^nd here & also a poor T63 @ The OPEN.

It is fair to say he just does NOT play well @ The OPEN.

It is Worth mentioning he was in worse form in 2025 before he went-

• T7 X BMW Championships
• T2 x PGA TOUR Championships

His timing seems impeccable, also after the PGA TOUR Champs he finished T5 X DPWT/PGA BMW + T6 X DPWT Indian Open, proving he holds form.

We think he can replicate the same form as seen at PGA Travelers, his current odds around $48 seems value. We are not concerned that he missed the cut by 2 shots over the pond.

His ball striking + his 2^nd around here in 2024 gives us confidence his game is going well despite the cut. His price on betfair keeps fluctuating but between $46 to $50 is more than fair.

Being 23^rd in FedEx Cup points he is very safe. There is no cut for the playoffs (next 3 events).

 Odds update as of 08:25am on 12^th August @ $42

2026 PGA stats

• 26^th x SG: Total
• 20^th x SG: T2G
• 82^nd x SG: OTT
• 27^th x DA @ 65.42%
• 18^th x SG: APG
• 104^th x GIR @ 66.17%
• 38^th x SG: ARG
• 84^th x SG: PUT
• 12/16 cuts made in 2026 for 75%
• 23^rd in FedEx Cup points

Last week around Bellerive the Norwegian tried a little too much.

PGA TOUR Championship

Last week @ Bellerive GC he lost 7 shots just on day 4 with (3 bogeys + 2 double bogeys) & he was trying too hard, when your game is not flowing never push too hard as it does not resolve itself, back off.

We watch so many hours of golf each & every week & we know these players very well so you can tell very early who has turned up & or who will be struggling, I have to sometimes leave the room as their shot was so bad.

• 32^nd x SG: OTT losing -0.088 strokes
• T15 x DA @ 64.29% (36/56)
• 36^th x SG: APG losing -1.764 strokes
• T34 x GIR @ 63.89% (46/72)
• 48^th x SG: ARG losing -3.402 strokes
• 15^th x SG: PUT @ +2.655
• T33 x SG: Total losing -2.600 strokes

**Last week he was terrible out of the bunkers- 2/9 sand saves and honestly the bunkers were not as difficult as other courses.

Even with his demise last week with wedge & irons, we would prefer him over Xander who is $14 versus VH @ $32, MAYBE the blessing in disguise was his demise last week as he is a “horses for courses” this week with better punch than both Henley or Xander, in our opinion!

Eastlake GC form-

• 2025 x 12
• 2024 x T12
• 2023 x 1st
• 2022 x T15
• 2021 x 5

Last week he had the best round of any player over the 4 days in the 50-player field with his day 2 effort shining bright-

• 63 (-7) x day 2

VH has been playing some of his best golf in 2026 in his last 5 events which yielded a 1^st @ PGA Travelers Championship as his best result in a dual with Scheffler, he is putting well which is a good sign he just needs to correct what we saw last week which he has had 10 straight events in +strokes gained on approach.

Hopefully we will not be questioning why we stuck with him this week after 36 holes!

VH opened around $28 on betfair and he has been very similar to drifting with Chris Gotterup and now there is plenty of $32 on offer (betfair $3632) which again is very tempting, it is no secret we like VALUE @ PGT and we still need to look at snapshot of the last 4 weeks and we like consistent golfers, sure we can excuse 1 week of average play, we just do not want to see 2 weeks in a row.

We will lean on what we are seeing with our own eyes and his “horses for courses” form but he should be firming in our opinion. Day 1 will reveal everything with Viktor.

We last entertained JB when selected @ $75 for the PGA Rocket Classic where he finished T26.

Yes, we were expecting more from JB, but he has now had 9 good results straight, proving to us he is sorting out the errors week to week.

**What we sent out for the Rocket

After his first win on PGA tour @ the very difficult Riviera GC (poa annua greens) were seriously wrong back in the back end of February this year it looked like after the very first win he had become a serious challenger to the top tier ranked players.

From the MASTERS onwards in mid-April his normally very reliable +1.80 strokes gained in putting on avg per day (an impressive +7.20 strokes each event) that’s on average had deserted his game.

In 4 of his next 6 events, we saw a negative in his putting which is odd seeing such a talented putter lose strokes in 66.6% of those events, it’s near diabolical really.

It was not until recently we trusted his putting game had finally returned, proof is now historic as JB has recorded +strokes gained in-

• 4 of his last 5 events +SG: PUT

His overall 2026 stats have improved significantly in the back half of 2026.

2026 PGA stats

• 17^th x SG: Total
• 68^th x SG: T2G
• 71^st x SG: OTT
• 44^th x Driving Accuracy @ 62.01%
• 42^nd x SG: APG
• 71^st x Greens in Regulation @ 66.89%
• 122^nd x SG: ARG
• 3^rd x SG: PUT
• 18/19 Cuts made in 2026 for 94.7%

JB has however been incredibly consistent in making cuts which you need to, so you see the final 36 holes in any contest. It is still impressive to be near 100%.

Last 6 events

• 4/6 x SG: Off the tee
• 6/6 x SG: Approach the greens
• 3/6 x SG: Around the greens
• 4/6 x SG: Putting

The last 6 events or 4 can be seen as a smaller window into current strokes gained metrics a quick glance to see whether a player has changed in what we can see for the last 7 months, because we have our forever changing database, we still have baselines for players which of course can change.

If the best version of JB turns up he proved he can hold off the world’s best (Rory & company) & most players can play far better away from all the media attention, I see last week’s winner Jackson Koivun is the 2^nd fav this week, which is ludicrous, sure he won well but to be fair last weeks course is entirely different than this week and even the tougher courses are coming up over 4 weeks. There is a reason the next month sees “CHAMPIONSHIP” courses come into effect.

Either way congratulations to the 21yr old but there have been players as highly touted as he is to be stuck on 1 sole PGA win after 2 years of fulltime competition, it’s a tough sport.

Back to JB, after opening around $55 on betfair there is no rush to even get matched @ $70, I suggest try getting matched for well beyond $80 to $90 as JB has no interest on betfair at the time of summary.

• JB is 8^th on birdie average @ 4.28 (317 birdies from 74 rounds)

That figure is skewed a touch due to his poor run when totally out of form, this could be a birdie fest early so hopefully JB continues his most current form line.

Good value for the weekend.

His game was very improved last week around Bellerive GC.

Stats from BMW

• 27^th x SG: OTT @ +0.257
• T6 x DA @ 67.86% (38/56)
• T23 x SG: APG @ +0.131
• T24 x GIR @ 66.67% (48/72)
• 8^th x SG: ARG @ +2.339
• 19^th x SG: PUT @ +1.674
• 9^th x SG: Total @ +4.400

The course this week suits JB right down to the ground, he should thrive on the greens.

PGA TOUR Championship

With JB being in the T10 for birdies and he is T10 mostly in driving distance so around a course where he really excels with the putter where most failed last week (CANTLAY) putting this is his lean to.

Looking very deeply each week into what he is doing he could be the trump card this week, his game is coming together at the right time and away from the favourites he is a bit of value.

Eastlake GC form-

• 2025 x T27
• 2024 x DNP
• 2023 x DNP
• 2022 x DNP
• 2021 x DNP

JB arrives in fine fettle for this weekend, he will have to lean on his #1 weapon, his putting!

We will be keeping a close eye on him from tee off as he will be in group 9 playing along side with Russell Henley, hopefully they will help each other but after opening around $70 early on betfair there was $110 yesterday.

Currently around $95 on betfair with $2260 available to be matched, just a quick look that is x 2 the odds of Bobby Mac who was better last week but whether his knee holds up, who knows but we like JB @ +$100, he is our value play and we really like the fact he usually thrives putting, he only needs to align his shots to get onto the green and he can be in this for a long while.

Another option for members you could back him in T10 around $4.90 to cover your outlay, entirely up to you but his putting if we are right will be worth at least -8 over 72 holes.

Try getting matched around $120, looking at what is in the queue, it is very probable.

odds update as of 3:11pm on 26th August.

Just reiterating as we advised with Morikawa-

 **The strategy this week is 5 x players are selected for the TOUR Championship representing 16% of the field with only 30 players set to tee off, with only 5 we also can also provide a late mail if we spot any late movers!

Final say-

Look it is the TOUR Championships, in reality any of the 30 players can win, we like to peel back the genuine hopes & we are happy to go on record why some can & why some cannot- most weeks we get it right-

Scheffler- of course but we know he will be thereabouts-his slow starts handicap him

Rory- looked better last week, putting let him down

Xander- we have been on a few times- always a chance but we did NOT pick him for a reason

Burns- has had plenty of chances

Cantlay- looked dangerous last week but his putting woes let him down always

Aberg- simply frustrating & inconsistent

Young- needs to resolve only one area of his game-putting

Tommy- his shot on 17^th on day 4 proved he fluked this last year!

Henley- he will bob up again but convinced he fluke his win in 2026

SWK- always dangerous but better on tighter courses due to high accuracy

Hideki- super consistent but finds a way to lose- when greens are on not many better

Gerard- big fans- lesser events only

Bobby Mac- killed our vibe on him 2 ago- better last week so never shocks if he wins

Rosey- very capable & we looked at him- he can be good but also so bad-Inconsistent

JJ- his putting woes plague him

TK- would not shock but prefer to fade him now

Gary- he was in it last weekend but what was that on the 9^th from tee box- it was very open of him to tell all in an interview how the heat had played havoc with his PTSD last few weeks.

Scott- love watching him but have stopped picking him

MWL- very disappointing

Reitan- big fans but peaked early

Smalley- No

Alex Fitzy- keen to see his next season but currently fading- congrats on the T30 though

Bhatia- fans but had enough of his errant tee shots- he can be woeful at times

Foxy- fans yes but he is still in his major hangover-later.

Of course, any of these can win as we are down to the T30 PGA players over the season & some got here even without winning, I have always shared why players persist in chasing bigger events without having won earlier on tour, get your win out of the way and plan your schedule after that.

We do think only a handful of players are genuine threats this week, we know any player can get hot but also, they can cool as fast as they go on a run, we firmly believe consistency shines through, and we can steal look at value in players. Good luck on all your plays this week but keep an eye out for the just in case late mail.