PGA THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

What a return to form last week @ AP where the Swede-

• 5th x SG: Off The Tee @ +2.979 strokes gained
• T4 x Greens in Regulation @ 70.83% (51/72)
• 3rd x SG: Approach to Green @ +5.361
• 14th x SG: Around The Green @ +1.445
• 23rd x SG: Putting @ +1.082
• T3 x SG: Total @ +10.867
• T2 x Driving Accuracy @ 73.21% (41/56)
• 1st x Driving Distance @ 331.00 yds
• T4 x Eagles @ 1
• T7 x Birdies @ 19
• T32 x Pars @ 44
• T7 x Bogeys @ 7
• T23 x Double Bogeys @ 1

Around a course last week where honestly most players (over 70% had a less than 50% DA) which they just could not find fairways.

LA on Days 1 & 3 had above 75% Driving Accuracy, and his worst day was day 4 where he was still better than most of the field with his 64.29% (9/14).

His Ball striking looked sharp, and his putting stats could have looked a whole lot better as there were a few on day 4 that only missed by 20mm.

The course and his current new found form will suit and even yesterday there was $27 on offer for the Swede on betfair, he is now around $24.

• 86th x SG: T2G
• 31st x SG: OTT
• 129th x SG: APG
• 107th x SG: ARG
• 7th x SG: PUT
• 64.18% GIR
• BTA-below tour avg Driving Accuracy
• 72% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (5/5)
• 48% top 25 in 2025 + 60% in 2026 (3/5)
• ¾ x SG metrics
• 70.06 stroke avg
• 1 x PGA win

So far in 2025 CY was a slow starter with a T22 @ PGA Farmers Insurance then mediocre results followed at PGA WM Phoenix Open with T41 & T55 @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro-am before improving to-

• T7 @ PGA Genesis Invitational with 72, 68, 66, 66 for -12
• T3 @ PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational with 67, 73, 67, 69 for -12

The improvement should excel him around the TPC Sawgrass with new stats in-

• 1st x SG: OTT @ +7.391 strokes gained
• 2nd x GIR @ 75.00% (54/72)
• 18 x SG: APG @ +1.742
• 32 x SG: ARG @ +0.087
• 19th x SG: PUT @ +1.647
• T3 x SG: Total @ +10.867
• 1st x Driving Accuracy @ 75.00% (42/56)

Since his breakout Win @ the 2025 PGA Wyndham Championships we have been waiting for a breakout season, if he maintains the improved stats that will see him win another on tour in 2026.

After opening on Monday on betfair @ $36 he has remained relatively firm in betting @ $40, with possible questions surrounding the form of Scheffler and the back issue with Rory then $40 is more than fair.

The 2nd of our Late Mails last week @ the AP-

"Is the risker of the 2 players as our Late Mail, not based on odds but MWL needs to get back to his better around green play & sink a few more putts which we saw in the first 36 holes like below-

• 25th x SG: OTT @ +0.612 strokes gained
• 3rd x SG: APG @ +4.412
• 6th x SG: ARG @ +2.264
• 33rd x SG: Putting @ +0.118
• 6th x SG: Total @ +7.421
• 17th x Driving Accuracy @ 64.29% (27/42)
• 15th x Driving Distance @ 314.80 yds
• T13 GIR @ 64.81% (35/54)
• T15 x Sand Saves @ 66.67% (2/3)

On day 3 MWL-

• 6th x SG: OTT @ +1.181strokes gained
• 3rd x SG: APG @ +2.477
• 31st x SG: ARG losing -0.307 strokes
• 23rd x SG: Putting losing -0.111 strokes
• T4 x SG: Total @ +3.254
• T9 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (10/14)
• T2 x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (14/18)
• T14 x Scrambling @ 75.00% (3/4)

Something the current leader who did so well on Day 1 & 2 which was sweet striking iron play, but Berger went from 67% & 83% greens in regulation to 62% on day 3 which is concerning as remember what we wrote for Sepp that Berger has been selected by us twice?

Both Late Mails are ranked 1st & 2nd in GIR % and although SS has dialled his putting in better than MWL on day 3, we also like what both players are doing in finding fairways, it has been a hard slog for players especially after it rained getting the ball out from 3 to 4-inch Bermuda grass.

It is very possible more rain & wind is coming, seeing it is Florida after all.

Last week MWL struggled early on the front 9 with 4 x bogeys which meant he had erased any hope of mounting a serious challenge when we had high expectations. Then all we could do was ponder what may have been when he went up a gear to finish with-

• 5 birdies on the back 9 on day 4

With 7 straight finishes from 7 events so far in the new 2026 season MWL can now prove he belongs to contest with the best of them, His best play is when he attacks the flag like most young aggressive players, he needs to stop over thinking and go for it.

After opening up @ $40 on betfair there is plenty of $44 to even pushing $46 available, MWL is growing in confidence and despite the last 6 winners of this event being in the T10 in OWGR that could be skewed with Rory & Scheffler winning most.

A late withdrawal from last weeks PGA AP just before tee off, which the illness was not announced but from what I can find he wanted to ensure full tilt this week.

No stranger to us @ PGT we have been riding his success in 2026 because of-

• T11 @ PGA Sony Open
• T5 @ PGA Farmers Insurance
• 8th @ PGA WM Phoenix Open
• T8 @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro am
• 6th @ PGA Genesis Invitational

At Pebble Beach, I honestly thought he was going to win but he laboured on day 4 and despite his eagle on the 18th that only saved his normal day into positive figures with -1 (71).

His other days were solid.

So far in 2026 he is ranked higher than 2025 in the following-

• 2nd x SG: Total
• 11th x SG: T2G
• 27th x SG: OTT
• 32nd x SG: APG
• 67th x GIR @ 69.42%
• 4th x SG: PUT

Although he may sit above the tour avg on driving accuracy with his +60% he is known for his bombing of fairways and does sit 7th currently in distance, however I will take accuracy especially around courses with 4 inch roughs, it was frustrating watching players last week including the 5 stroke leader, Daniel Berger find the rough & not the fairway.

Hopefully the rest works in JK favour and we would like to see his start fast but from 20 rounds of golf over 5 events JK has only just missed 3 strokes gained metrics from that 20 and they were very minor preventing 100% in all SG metrics-

• -0.11 strokes lost in SG: ARG @ PGA Genesis Invitational
• -0.41 strokes lost in SG: ARG @ PGA Farmers Insurance Open
• -0.09 strokes lost in SG: APG @ Sony Open

JK has such a sweet swing on approach, and he is one of the most consistent golfers so far in 2026 making 100% cuts (5/5) & 100% in top 25 in 2026 (5/5).

After opening around $48 on Monday on betfair, MJ foolishly went early @ $50, there is now plenty of $55 on offer and try pushing for +$60 on the exchange. All JK has to do is carry through his very good form so far.

What we sent out as Late Mail for 2026 PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational last week-

Overall ranked well after 54 holes-

• 7th x SG: OTT @ +2.279
• 4th x SG: APG @ +4.305
• 44th x SG: ARG losing -1.460 strokes
• 9th x SG: Putting @ +3.282 strokes gained
• T3 x SG: Total @ +8.421
• T10 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.05% (29/42)
• T21 x Driving Distance @ 309.90 yds
• 1st x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (42/54)
• T15 x Sand Saves @ 66.67% (2/3)

On day 3 it was Hovland & Straka that led the putting with Cameron Young starting the run up the leaderboard with 4 straight birdies on holes 10, 11, 12 & 13, the alarming stats around the green hinder Young IMO.

Straka was interviewed after day 3 and he had adjusted his play the best with his putter & if there is a player that could make up the deficit on Day 4 it could be Sepp with similar figures only needed to be replicated from Day 3-

• 7th x SG: OTT @ +1.170 strokes gained
• 9th x SG: APG @ +1.243
• 29th x SG: ARG losing -0.140 strokes
• 3rd x SG: Putting @ +2.967
• 1st x SG: Total @ +5.254
• T4 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (11/14)
• T2 x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (14/18)
• T1 x Sand Saves @ 100.00% (1/1)

Summary from last week-

"Having found 11/14 fairways helped Sepp stay out of the bunkers as did his crips Iron play to sit just under 80% GIR.
**From what we have seen to date it is no disadvantage to find the low-lying bunkers, a few have some high lips which they are to be avoided but watching Daniel Berger he has had some very "FLUKEY" luck go his way, surely this discontinues for 4 days straight?

If you compare the current leader Daniel Berger who for the record we selected at Amex & Phoenix off the top of my head, who also faded on day 4 he found 7 of 13 fairways, he still has a few holes to play due to darkness on Day 3 (looks like a birdie possible on resumption) but he also only found 62% of Greens in Regulation, his stats look very different from Day 1 & 2 heading into the final Day.

SS is a player we have also previously selected in 2026 & he only fell short by 1 shot to Colin Morikawa @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach who really was the best finisher on the back 9.

He looks dialled in & we do not know what Berger will start the final 18 holes in so its risky not knowing but perhaps he falters early (it helps) but both our late mails have the stats and trending in the right direction and both start close enough with SS @ -9 so its like handicapping & we are happy to back SS @ $17 to find out."

Like MWL SS started rather nervously and with a bogey on hole 2 all I could think of was Pebble Beach revisited, then 2 x birdies on holes 4 & 6 then more bogeys followed on 9, 10, 11 & yep 12 to have many expletives yelled at him.

He finished with +4 (76) to round out a normally good week that saw him contending, Not sure what is holding SS back as he is a more reliable putter than what we have seen and his late rally @ Pebble Beach which was a demanding course where he finished with SG: total of +3.39 each day.

If it all clicks this weekend then the $65 currently on betfair seems value, he is not the best he can be but we saw Bhatia last week have a breakout (anomaly) when 1st in ARG & 1st in Putting, it can happen to any of the elite players, it was not long ago Sepp went on a march.

**Of note= we do not want to keep going back to the well for Sepp, he either Wins this week & if he cannot then we will leave him alone until much later. it is paramount we DO NOT keep just recycling players, we follow stats & trends & use our instinctive choices.

• 69th x SG: T2G
• 43rd x SG: OTT
• 95th x SG: APG
• 116th x SG: ARG
• 77th x SG: PUT
• 65.3% x GIR
• 63.69 x DA
• 85.7% x made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (5/5)
• 42.8 x top 25 in 2025 + 80% in 2026 (4/5)
• ¾ x SG metrics + 4/4 in 2026
• 69.79 stroke avg
• 6 x PGA Wins

Wow. before we launch into a song & dance about RF then let's dive into what he is doing so well of late-

• 11 x straight cuts made
• 11 x straight strokes gained total (low of +1 per day to a high of +3 SG)
• 11 x straight SG: OTT
• 10 of 11 events in +SG: APG
• 14 of 17 events in positives SG: PUT

Super consistent!

Last week around a very challenging course-

• T9 x SG: OTT @ +2.395
• T8 x GIR @ 68.06% (49/72)
• 33rd x SG: APG losing -0.304 strokes
• 33rd x SG: ARG @ +0.062
• 5th x SG: PUT @ +4.714
• T9 x SG: Total @ +6.867
• T5 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (40/56)

I was watching Fowler very closely and although he appeared frustrated, he was better than most across all 4 days with-

• 69, 69, 72, 70 for -8

The Stig & MJ can overlook his last 3 years around TPC Sawgrass as he is playing some of his best golf in a while but his scrambling was first class last weekend-

• 2nd x Scrambling @ 82.61% (19/23)

This course really demands players thinking about the 2nd shot, if Fowler can get good close hole proximity, then his better putting than most can convert at least +4 strokes over the 4 days versus the field.

On current stats and how he is playing solid golf we think the $65 on betfair very fair considering the ? marks of the 2 favourites.

Since his Win last year @ PGA 3M Open KK has had 10 results in his next 11 events with the only blemish @ PGA Amex.
Last week he did not make much noise but he was good-

• 6th x SG: OTT @ +2.952 strokes gained
• T20 x GIR @ 62.50% (45/72)
• 25th x SG: APG @ +0.721
• 49th x SG: ARG losing -3.430 strokes
• 20th x SG: PUT @ +1.624
• T18 x SG: Total @ +1.867
• T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 62.50% (35/56)

Although he is not normally a player we have selected too many times over the years, his strong iron/wedge play will see him contest in this and he usually bobs up when flying under the radar as he did with his excellent-

• T2 @ PGA Genesis Invitational with 71, 64, 68, 64

He only failed by 1 shot and apart from Adam Scott who finished with 63 he had the next best @ 64 (-8).

KK has made 5 from 6 cuts in 2026 and on face value he is a more rounded player and whilst we can overlook his current ranking of 86th in putting he really stamps his iron play-

• 21st x SG: APG amongst all PGA players in 2026

Another who can putt well when required like most on tour in the Top 70 overall. When he starts well he plays well, sound relatively easy but I will say it again & again we prefer chasers & as long as they can play consistently each day without breaking course records they will do.

KK has been very firm in markets, after opening around $65 there is plenty to be matched on betfair around $75, there is a good mix of players under the $100 bracket so you could try getting matched for +$80.

From what we sent out when ST was $70 for the Farmers Insurance Open-

• 147th x SG: T2G
• 135th x SG: OTT
• 134th x SG: APG
• 95th x SG: ARG
• 138th x SG: PUT
• 65.56% GIR
• BTA x DA
• 73.9% made cuts in 2025
• 70.93 stroke avg
• 1 x PGA win

ST is our project player @ PGT & he was selected & he is showing tremendous form over on TGL as a member of Los Angeles GC and on watching every game so far in 2026 he looks very good indoors.

Another player The Stig & MJ have been following waiting for him to hit Gold/pay dirt he proved his mettle last week for his best result since returning from a lengthy injury (full detailed summary is in our past selections on website) & new mental approach to the game with-

• T8 x PGA American Express with -21 (71, 64, 67, 65)

Most Analysts have been missing his slow & steady improvement, so it does bite a bit that he goes around this week around $80 when we @ PGT have been following between $120 to $200 in other events.

What has stuck is his ability Off the Tee which is favoured around the 2 courses @ Torrey Pines, His 2025 stats are to be ignored due to the long term injury but if we look closer into his past 7 events he did make the cut in 6.

He went from the PGA Procore in Mid-September of 2025 & steadily improved, his Driving stats were his staple, and we saw that on full display last week in California but surprisingly he featured high up in the rankings in putting-

• 3rd x SG: Putting @ +4.051 stroke gained

That has to have ST smiling from ear to ear, combine this with his consistent driving-

• T41 x Driving Accuracy @ 66.07% (37/56) fairways found
• 17th x Driving Distance @ 317.00 yds

His best driving accuracy came on Day 2 & 3-

• T5 x Driving Accuracy @ 85.71% (12/14)- day 2
• T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (11/14)- day 3

It is one thing to hit the ball long which there are players this week that can but often they are around 50% in finding fairways which means that 2nd shot is likely going to be tough, in the rough on both the NC & SC this week the rough is 3 to 4 inches thick, you want accuracy as well this week.

Thanks to his T10 finish he also gets a free ride into a few of the PGA signature events coming up.

Last week at Arnold Palmer-

• 27th x SG: OTT @ +0.540 strokes gained
• 8th x SG: APG @ +4.029
• 2nd x SG: ARG @ +4.900
• 36th x SG: PUT losing -0.602 strokes
• T6 x SG: Total @ +8.867
• T29 x Driving Accuracy @5 7.14% (32/56)
• 12 x Driving Distance @ 314.60 yds
• T15 x GIR @ 63.89% (46/72)

Whilst all eyes were on Bhatia (he did come from 5 off) Theegala went 7 birdies with only 1 bogey on 15th hole to end his weekend with a -6 and overall -10 & 6th finish locking up a start at the US Masters.

We have been following ST and if he can put 4 days together then he figures here, we are waiting for it & on Monday he opened around $80 on betfair and drifted to $100 before firming a touch yesterday between $90 to $95, I would suggest waiting to see if you can get matched around +$110, if he clicks he can easily do a "Bhatia", on AB it will be interesting to see if he can keep the ball on the fairway around TPC Sawgrass, or will he miss the cut?

What we wrote for AN last week @ AP-

• 100th x SG: T2G
• 80th x SG: OTT
• 80th x SG: APG
• 55th x SG: ARG
• 65th x SG: PUT
• 65.55% x GIR
• 67.39% x DA
• 63.6% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4)
• 27.3% top 25 in 2025 + 25% in 2025 (1/4)
• 70 stroke avg
• 0 x PGA Wins + 12 x DPWT Wins
• 2/4 x strokes gained metrics

We have highlighted previously the GREAT mystery on why very good European players do not win on the PGA Tour!
In Europe this swede has beaten the best in the world & he got so close at the PGA HERO WORLD challenge (mid December) when beaten in a playoff by Hideki Matsuyama.

The form lines still run strongly through the Japanese player who has maintained good results into 2026 with him being beaten in a playoff recently by Chris Gotterup.

It did not surprise us @ PGT that it may have rattled the swede mentally, he was cut in his next 2 events from the American Express & the Farmers Insurance Open but has looked much sharper since with good results at-

• T12 x PGA Genesis Invitational with 74, 66, 67, 66 for -11
• T29 x PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am with 68, 70, 66, 71 for -13

In his last 8 rounds of golf he has shot 66 x 3 and that could have easily been 5.

Leading into HERO World challenge and including all worldwide starts he had from 10 events-

• 2 x 1sts x Betfred British Masters + BMW PGA Championships
• 2nd x PGA Hero World Challenge
• 3rd x PGA Wyndham Championships
• T7 x PGA 3M Open
• 2 x T20 results

The swede most likely wins 2 this year on PGA tour and what you have to appreciate he could easily go to Puerto Rico this week for the PGA double header and win there but chose the better field.

After opening around $100 on Monday you can easily find $140 now on betfair, I was personally matched @ $160 so I suggest with moving markets try for at least $160 up to $180.

His best is clearly good enough, lets hope he starts well early.

This week based on what AN did last week I expect him to be a little more patient; he seemed to rush shots and looked to want that event to be all over-

He is better than that and a deeper dive proves he was better than sound-

• 28th x SG: OTT @ +0.381 strokes gained
• T11 x GIR @ 65.28% (47/72)
• 32 x SG: APG @ +0.114
• 12 x SG: ARG @ +1.600
• 40 x SG: PUT losing -1.228 strokes
• T24 x SG: Total @ +0.867
• T9 x Driving Accuracy @ 67.86% (38/56)

On Days 2 & 3 saw AN in positive strokes gained in putting, You could see on day 4 he wanted it to be all over but his overall was better than even those cut that were some big names-

His overall-

• 72, 72, 69, 73 for -2 for the event

Looking around betfair he opened @ $80 on Monday and there has been absolutely no market support but what bewilders me is he started +$160 last week yet there is $100 on offer now, very puzzling really, I would suggest waiting to see if he drifts more and or try & get matched for between $120 to $130, only a suggestion!

• 39th x SG: T2G
• 24th x SG: OTT
• 39th x SG: APG
• 146th x SG: ARG
• 67th x SG: PUT
• 69.2% x GIR
• 66.64% x DA
• 85.3% made cuts in 2025 + 80% in 2026 (4/5)
• 57.2% top 25 in 2025 + 20% in 2025 (1/5)
• 4/4 x SG metrics
• 70 stroke avg
• 2 x PGA wins

This Canadian has always had difficulty around the greens and his putting often loses the positives strokes he picks up on the field off the tee.

Last week there was improvement-

• 22nd x SG: OTT @ +0.983 strokes gained
• 3rd x GIR @ 72.22% (52/72)
• 9th x SG: APG @ +3.738
• 23 x SG: ARG @ +0.494
• 49th x SG: Putting losing -5.348 strokes
• T33 x SG: Total losing -0.133 strokes
• T2 x Driving Accuracy @ 73.21% (41/56)

He may have lost more than 5 strokes in putting overall and the -1 for the event may have you scratching your head but on days 1 & 4 he was ranked in the T30 in Putting, his Achilles heal but if he can use his usually slick approach play then convert some decent birdie chances, his driving accuracy should allow that set up here, there is 4 x par 5s.

He is flying under the radar and he does because of his usually weaker putting, again we saw Bhatia have a breakout last weekend, he has won 2 already on PGA so it seems the theme for 2026 in that players who have won 2 are now winning 3?

There are a few analysts out there wanting to tip him for T20 & T30, those markets are very diluted and why we prefer to play mostly in WIN markets but CC has been pretty firm since opening around $90, there is around $100 currently on betfair, I could not get matched for $130 but will try again closer to tee off.

Last week we were on CW for the Win, he looked some chance but missing vital putts on the back 9 on the final day is never ideal, previous days saw that his strength usually -3 to -5.

• T9 x SG: OTT @ +2.396 strokes gained
• 7 x SG: APG @ +4.061
• T11 x GIR @ 65.28% (47/72)
• 22nd x SG: ARG @ +0.631
• 13 x SG: PUT @ +2.779
• 5th x SG: Total @ +9.867

See full Analysis from last week.

• With 48 x T10s form 147 events (SR @ 32.65%)

We though we would send out 3 players to T10 & T20 to cover the outlay this week, so far in 2026 we have stick with our new formula of JUST WINNERS but its all about covering the outlay when we can, the other events yielded 3 x 2nds and even CW last week was 5th.

Currently on betfair at time of summary CW is $3.50 to T10

Like Aberg last week @ AP he returned to form-

• 41st x SG: OTT losing -2.091 strokes
• 14th x SG: APG @ +2.545 strokes gained
• 36th x SG: ARG losing -0.574 strokes
• 6th x SG: PUT @ +3.987
• T13 x SG: Total @ +3.867
• T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 62.50% (35/56)

Its has been very well reported that VH is having swing issues, sure and he knows it but has been working with T.J Yeaton and we are seeing improvements, of course it never just clicks it happens over time but last week-

• T13- with rounds of 72, 72, 67, 72 for -5

He surprised me on day 3 with-

• 1st x SG: Putting @ +5.050

The forever smiling Norwegian can make a splash in this, we prefer him to T10 than outright Win due to NOT clicking 100% with his swing quite yet, he may go close here but around $5.50 on betfair that is still a nice 400% ROI just on that play.

Our man Saint Nick, see other events for very full analysis on the website but Saint Nick has now-

• 7 x straight cuts made
• 7 x T40 results
• 6 of the 7 x T30
• 3 of the 7 x T25

Not only is this Canadian a cash cow for "make cuts" market along with T30 markets overall he has duly paid his way for us @ PGT winning a couple along the way.

He can lean on his crisp ball striking here-

• 16 of his last 19 in positives SG: APG

We were expecting a lot of NT when we selected him @ PGA WM Phoenix Open in early February and after learning he holidays there in the winter with his family and has done so for the last 10 years, I was extremely disappointed with his T28.

I guess he has been so good to us we expect a lot but I have watched a tonne of video and every interview out there of him and he loves to compete.

He will add to his existing 5 x PGA wins in 2026, just when is the ?, although totally adamant it will be in 2026, around $5.70 to a high of $6.20 on betfair to T20 is value.