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DPWT The Open Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

Course

Royal Birkdale Golf Club

Location

Southport, England

Date

16 July 2026

2026-07-16

Europe/London

Shooting for 3 from 4 Majors for 2026

Our chief analyst MJ has picked the winners at 2 of the 3 Majors in 2026, and he’s determined he’ll get the third at The Open.

PGT’s free pick for The Open 2026 is Justin Rose at 30/1(+3000) (sitting at 36/1(+3600) as at 01/07/26 On Betfair) and above. Full selections and analysis, from our chief analyst MJ, will be published Wednesday 15 July 2026 approx 3pm AEST ahead of the event tee-off.

Course Overview

The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport for the 154th Open. The Open’s official course guide sets out the 2026 Royal Birkdale hole-by-hole test, while current tournament coverage lists the championship course as a par-70 layout at 7,223 yards. Royal Birkdale is one of the most respected venues in The Open rotation, with fairways framed by the dune landscape and a long history of major-championship winners.

Past Open champions at Royal Birkdale include Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Ian Baker-Finch, Mark O’Meara, Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth.

What to Look For

Royal Birkdale’s fairways and exposed links conditions put a premium on controlled ball flight, precise approach play, bunker management and patience in changing wind. Players with proven Open Championship records and comfort on firm links-style turf should be treated seriously.

Tips Coming: 2026 Open picks and betting analysis, from our chief analyst MJ, will be published Wednesday 15 July 2026 approx 3pm AEST ahead of the event tee-off.

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.
Competitor Tip Type Odds Units Result Rationale
Tyrrell Hatton Win 36/1(+3600) 1.00 LOSS

What PGT sent out for Tyrell when $50 for the US Open on June 18th.

Winner of the recent LIV event in Andalucia with -11 over Jon Rahm (-9) with rounds of -4, -2, -4, -1 making it his 2nd win on the LIV tour.

  • 44th x Fairways hit @ 55.36%
  • 21st x birdies @ 4.75 with 152
  • 33rd x scrambling @ 61.31% (103/168 par or better)
  • 17th x Greens in regulation @ 70.83% (408/576)
  • 22nd x Putting @ 1.60 (919 GIR)
  • 15TH X Driving distance @ 305 yards avg
  • 24/25 cuts made in last 25 events for 96% strike rate

A win over Rahm would be the confidence shot the Englishman was looking for but when it comes to Majors although not winning his recent-

  • 3rd x PGA Masters @ Augusta with rounds of 74, 66, 72, 68 for -10

Showed that TH has always been able to mix it up with the elite players in the game, with Augusta being a tricky course Hatton did well after a slow start to-

  • +3.84 strokes gained total
  • 4/4 strokes gained metric all positive SG

What will suit is the links styled course @ Shinnecock with rolling fairways and elevated greens with short back drops very similar to what the English & Scotsman grow up on from early teens.

TH was a good 4th @ US Open last year to JJ Spaun with his +3.35 strokes gained @ Quail Hollow GC along with his last 4 events showing us-

  • 13/16 x SG metrics in +strokes gained

TH has positive strokes gained in SG: ARG, SG: APG & ¾ events in +SG: PUT, with tricky greens we are looking backwards with players having to find greens, the putting and with a 5-inch rough keeping it on the fairways will help with shot 2, this course is not about distance off the tee.

Always in the thick of it at Majors and after being cut @ the PGA Championships TH bounced back with a strong win in Spain his mental approach will be positive & back to a links style course with strong winds coming from both directions should see TH challenge around $50 on betfair.

He has remained firm in markets opening around $46 on betfair, fair value considering you have Aberg around $26.

The OPEN Championships

Last week in Scotland we saw a safe start from TH with a 70 (even par) and then on day 2 he really ramped his play-

  • Day 2 x round of 66 with +3.74 strokes gained
  • Day 3 x round of 67 with +2.20 SG

The leaders had already started to establish a pace that not many could keep up with as when they started the delayed round 3 late due to fog which then went into the day 4 start you had to be around -10 to -11 & Tyrell was @ -7.

I had calculated to be any winning chance with our players they would have shoot a 65 (-5) to even figure. PGT will handicap the field each day as it gives your players a realistic chance or not.

When the players turned for home, we still had 3 genuine chances & Tom Kim put his “Pedal to the metal” with his 64 (-6) which saw +6.40 strokes gained just on the final day of play.

We think TH is warming up and he was a good T7 @ the last major, US Open when selected and he does have a very good record on genuine links style courses. After opening around $32 on betfair and even shorter on fixed odds several months ago for the “LAST MAJOR” of 2026 he has found good solid support @ $36 on betfair currently.

 

 

Justin Rose Win 38/1(+3800) 1.00 LOSS

We will declare ROSEY can be boom or bust which is highlighted with his inconsistent record not only in majors but even when making the cut.

What we mean by inconsistent is he is known to miss 2 cuts straight from time to time & when it comes to the OWGR T20 most players will sit above 80% for making cuts, JR was only 67% when we last selected him for a major.

We last entertained Rosey @ the PGA Championships on the 14th of June-

  • 86th x SG: Total
  • 87th x SG: T2G
  • 116th x SG: OTT
  • 24th x SG: APG
  • 143rd x SG: ARG
  • 70th x SG: PUT
  • 66th x Driving Accuracy @ 60.14%
  • 8th x Greens in regulation @ 70.43%
  • 6/9 cuts made in 2026 for 67%
  • 2 x T5s in his last 8 events with one being a 1st

That 1st was where he donkeys licked the field @ PGA Farmers Insurance in the last weekend of January by 7 shots in which he proved any player can get hot with irons and putting.

  • 21st x SG: Off the Tee @ +1.664 strokes gained
  • 2nd x SG: Approach to Green @ +7.257
  • 45th x SG: Around the Green losing -0.248 strokes
  • 10th x SG: Putting @ +3.532
  • 1st x SG: Total @ +12.205

After winning the Farmers he then went T37 @ PGA Pebble Beach before doing his usual CUT & CUT at the 2 following events, they were considered big events with PGA Genesis Invitational & Signature event, PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational.

JR is included this weekend after his latest T3 @ Masters this year and he did finish 2nd beaten in a playoff the previous year & his game in 2026 apart from the 2 cuts (which he does sit in the lower cut % made) but he last won his solo major victory back in 2013 (US Open) so he does play well often in the bigger events.

Last week @ Truist he did just scrape into positive strokes gained in 3 of the 4 metrics we utilise.

After opening around $50 on betfair there is plenty of +$65 available and it seems most punters are overlooking Rosey, he can be hit and miss at times but since those 2 cuts back in mid-February & early May he has made 4 straight cuts, that is good enough for us but you could try and get matched on betfair for +$70.

His big event game is better than his usual weekly efforts, with a cut on this weekend players will need to be starting with the field though, so day 1 scores need be on pace.

The OPEN Championships

We can go as far back when JR played as a 17-yr old amateur and had an incredible weekend at the OPEN and although his efforts in only 2 showings @ Royal Birkdale GC were ordinary, they were on this course back in 2017 and prior to that in 2008.

At this major though in 2025 when @ Royal Portrush he did open day 1 with-

  • +3.25 strokes gained in SG: T2G & +4.04 SG: Total

More than 50% of his tee to green was +2.18 off the tee (OTT) & Rosey is one player you want to fire early, he has chased well previously (nearly chased down JJ Spaun at a major) but we prefer him to start with the field and not give away too many strokes, we witnessed this at a lesser event in early 2026 @ PGA Farmers Insurance Open in early February.

By lesser it still had many of the top OWGR players

After opening with a 62 (-10) on day 1 he was consistent through the event and even a moderate 70 (-2) on day 4 was not enough to allow a chaser to catch him, the rest is history as he won by 7 shots with a -23.

Before the event he was CUT at the PGA American Express & to be fair there were 4 players who finished in the T10 who had never won on PGA tour.

We expect Rosey to come out firing, for his age he is in very good physical condition, and he would dearly love to stamp his authority at home & in the last major of 2026.

PGT liked him well back for this and it is of some concern that PGA journalist Rob Bolton has him as his “sleeper pick” that worries me as we outperform Bolton by a long way & Bolton is “0” in sleeper picks for as long as he can remember!

The Stig & MJ would also never call a $38 shot a “sleeper pick” that is more reserved for a player at +$100 but I digress, due to his high OWGR ranking and of course playing all his junior golf on true links style courses Rosey has to be included & after opening around $30 in pre-event fixed odds months back he has been firm around $38 on betfair now.

We like him but we also like others with odds more appealing to “OUR VALUE strategy” which is proven.

 

 

Sam Burns Win 60/1(+6000) 1.00 LOSS

SB has been on our radar just like Cameron Young in 2026, the latter has been injured hence why we have steered well clear & although Sammy has not been he has suffered “mentally” by some close defeats of late, so he was another we left alone since the PGA Memorial in early June.

He did give us a scare when we left him alone at the US open recently when he surged late on day 4 with Tom Kim but personally, I would never have swapped a ticket on Wyndham Clark with SB as WC was on fire with only the wayward drive to worry about.

2026 PGA stats

  • 12th x SG: Total
  • 44th x SG: T2G
  • 46th x SG: OTT
  • 97th x Driving accuracy @ 58.29%
  • 52nd x SG: APG
  • 27th x GIR @ 69.06%
  • 111th x SG: ARG
  • 4th x SG: PUT
  • 13/16 cuts made in 2026 for 81.25%

Since the US Open, he has a solid T12 @ PGA Travelers Championship but what we like is what we saw with his wedge & iron play.

PGA Travelers Championship

  • 10th x SG: Off the Tee @ +2.380
  • 7th x SG: Approach to Green @ +4.379
  • T27 x Greens in Regulation @ 76.39% (55/72)
  • 66th x SG: Around the Green losing -3.120 strokes
  • 25th x SG: Putting @ +1.443
  • T12 x SG: Total @ +5.083

There were 2 very critical factors from TPC River Highlands was the loss of strokes around the green & his driving accuracy was just above 50% for the event, both are areas of his game he has improved significantly in the last 2 years.

Despite his 2026 PGA stats advising us he is ranked 111th around greens he has-

  • 5 from last 6 events been in + SG: ARG

SB also improved how he drove the ball from the tee box as well in the last 2 years, we expect him to feature as he can find greens and then convert birdies as it is his putting that will always pull him out of any trouble unlike a better & higher ranked bomber who cannot putt to save his life.

We will accept he is around $60 on betfair & a major is not beyond his reach with a fair few of the worlds best missing the cut last week in Scotland, Burns bypassed it for this. I would suggest trying though to get matched on betfair around the +$75.

Min Woo Lee Win 65/1(+6500) 1.00 LOSS

The young Australian is good odds which has me scratching my head because did people miss how good he was last week in Scotland?

MWL arrives very inform and no criticism from PGT as he was just beaten by Tom Kim who we knew would contest with his strong wedge & iron play, the only question for TK was could he convert birdie opportunities, he did.

We thought MWL was very good last week & we do accept this is a major but recent good form can never be ignored either.

2026 PGA stats

  • 13th x SG: Total
  • 10th x SG: T2G
  • 11th x SG: OTT
  • 60th x Driving accuracy @ 61.07%
  • 63rd x SG: APG
  • 73rd x GIR @ 66.76%
  • 29th x SG: ARG
  • 75th x SG: PUT
  • 13/16 cuts made in 2026 for 81.25%

From last week in Scotland MWL was very good with his putter picking up +1.23 strokes on average per day and we saw with our own eyes a few putts he sank from +20 foot.

Scottish Open

  • 4th x SG: OTT @ +4.222
  • 14th x SG: APG @ +3.792
  • T13 x GIR @ 76.39% (55/72)
  • 25th x SG: ARG @ +1.068
  • 11th x SG: PUT +4.797
  • 11 x SG: Total @ +13.87

MWL also impressed with-

  • 1st x birdies with 21

Around this course his smooth approach play will be rewarded & all he has to do is be anywhere close to how he played in Scotland.

Already an owner of 4 x T10 in 2026 & strong T20 results at recent strong events in May-

  • T18 x PGA Championships
  • T14 x PGA Truist Championships
  • T18 x PGA Cadillac Championships

We expect the good form and possibly his best form to date as although the Aussie won in 2025 his overall form in 2026 has been much more consistent and it honestly would not surprise us, he is an aggressive shot player who attacks the flags & does not hold back, we hope this continues.

This week in England we prefer MWL over Adam Scott & Ryan Fox who are in the sin bin with Adam Scott rolling out of favour with us. We prefer the young player who has significantly improved his game in 2026 & we highlighted this is a major, but he only has to replicate the same form from Scotland into this.

MWL has gone very close to winning in 4 of 14 events in 2026, not sure why we are getting possible overs?

Currently around $65 on betfair and that is a consistent price as being inform of late we rarely see above +$100, he was earlier around $55 even after Scotland so he is on a slight drift, never accept the price offered on betfair initially as we will always try for more, at the very worst case you can always go back and accept the price. We think his current $65 is more than reasonable, he was 2nd last week afterall!

Harris English Win 160/1(+16000) 1.00 LOSS

What we sent out for Harris last week @ the Genesis Scottish Open.

Harris English @ $150

2026 PGA stats

  • 36th x SG: Total
  • 77th x SG: T2G
  • 37th x SG: OTT
  • 31st x DA @ 63.52%
  • 66th x DD @ 295.50 yards (avg)
  • 118th x SG: APG
  • 59th x GIR @ 67.04%
  • 71st x SG: ARG
  • 6th x SG: PUT
  • 14/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 87.5%

HE was only just selected for the PGA Travelers Championship @ $75 where he finished T38 (very in-depth Analysis for the newer members just onboard) including a great interview to boot.

He looked dangerous with opening rounds of 66 & 66 and looked to be warming up until a crash back to earth when he bogeyed the 1st hole on day 3.

Never a good way to start day 3 and it will always crash any momentum.

To his credit HE did try but he was up & down on far too many holes and the end results was even par (70), On day 4, I was watching but he honestly never pushed & IMO he played it safe & he can do that, the polar opposite was with Chris Gotterup last week, he looked to be never out of 2nd gear on 3 days of golf, however when he missed a green or a putt he shrugged it off & his brother commented it in the interview pretty much as soon as he won that they both agreed not much really panned out and sure he had to go -9 on day 4 but many players are similar & if 3 or 4 putts can sink rather than just missing it changes everything.

Harris English gives you that impression, he will however never seem to push if he cannot contend, the run he had from late March into early June (7 events) was super consistent golf & he has only played 3times in the last 5 years in Scotland but I think he is playing some of his best golf especially in 2026 but from what I have witnessed in the last 5 years from him.

HE @ Scottish Open

  • 2025 x T22
  • 2024 x T34
  • 2023 x DNP
  • 2022 x T42
  • 2021 x DNP

As I am summarising, he did win back in 2025 (PGA Farmers) so he is not one of those PGA players that last won in 2021 or similar (many of them) who go winless between 3-5 years but we liked him for a reason previously & if we can find a genuine excuse he can be considered.

He is one of those players on tour & I will point out Tommy Fleetwood who is playing well but can often finish too many times in T20-T30 positions which is never a bad thing for his career but we are trying to find players that are showing us they could with all the right skills clicking to win Outright.

For example, Tommy is $23 to Win versus Harris @ $150 & bluntly put I would not back some players under $70 with your money this week, they have zero chance in Scotland, not pride talking but one thing we do quickly is eliminate those we think cannot.

So, it does not take much twisting of my arm to back Harris over Tommy here, after opening around $80 on betfair, there was NO matched plays @ $100 and there is plenty on offer @ $150, again never rush in early, there could be +$170 on offer before teeing off.

**Usually, a conservative starter which is different than a slow starter HE has now shot under 70 in only 6 of his last 16 events on day 1.

You may want to consider letting him slide until after day 1 is over as it may be around +$300 and honestly if you do not use betfair often, take a look after day 1 and the blow out on prices will surprise you, crazy odds-on offer.

The play it safe option is always take some early and have your remaining stake on later or just back early and accept it.

As the bartender will tell you, “I am not your priest, what do you want to drink”.

Scottish Open

Harris was one of the better OWGR players CUT from last week.

Oddly enough I saw some footage of HE from the range and he looked good, that did not translate and sometimes we must put it down to a bad week.

In saying this it is also the last chance we are giving HE to perform, we are reminded in 2025 around Royal Portrush he was an excellent-

  • 2nd x 2025 The OPEN Championship with 67, 70, 68, 66 for -13

His best is clearly good enough but as we do not like going back to “the well” too many times this will be his last chance to perform before he is rested from our player database.

Currently around $160 on betfair after opening at $130, there is plenty of +$170 on betfair and we think more towards +$200 is a fair price considering his fail last week in Scotland, his previous form consistent but we do need to see more now.

 

Cameron Smith Win 220/1(+22000) 1.00 LOSS

Along with fellow Australian Min Woo Lee these 2 aussies could be in for good weekend results.

We ventured down the path with Cam @ US Open at odds of $110 which was not his better effort after being CUT.

What we sent out for the US Open-

After changing from swing coach, Grant Field to Claude Harmon (Harmon is the son of Butch Harmon) who was Tiger Woods coach, we saw the improvement at CS most recent result-

  • T7 @ PGA Championships with rounds of 69, 71, 68, 68 for -4

After struggling with mostly his approach game we saw CS-

  • 78th x SG: OTT losing -2.995 strokes
  • 5th x SG: APG +5.358
  • 14th x SG: ARG @ +2.619
  • 14th x SG: PUT @ +4.500
  • T7 x SG: Total @ +9.482
  • T75 x Driving Accuracy @ 41.07% (23/56)
  • T31 x Greens in Regulation @ 68.06% (49/72)

His Iron play has also improved in the 2 events after on LIV tour, he will need to concentrate on finding fairways around Shinnecock if he wants to be in a challenging position with 18 holes to go.

2026 LIV

  • 54th x Fairways hit @ 51.19% (258/504)
  • 9th x birdies @ 4.44 with 160
  • 20th x scrambling @ 63.96% (142/222 par or better)
  • 48th x Greens in regulation @ 65.74% (426/648)
  • 1st x Putting @ 1.55 (993 GIR)
  • 36TH X Driving distance @ 294.5 yards avg
  • 19/25 cuts made in last 25 events for 76% strike rate

The Aussie did win his 1st & only Major @ OPEN Championship in 2022 @ St Andrews which is one of the best top 5 links styled courses in the world.

We know he can putt so if he can improve his driving off the tee and not give back (losing) 2 strokes he will look to set up the 2nd & 3rd shot he can go to his bread & butter (reliable) around greens play and sink a few more birdies with his #1 go to his putter.

As much as $150 was available on betfair as of Monday, CS has tightened up as punters look for value, I wish I had jumped on 2 days ago as mostly only $110 is available on betfair, try to get matched above $140.

All eyes will be on his tee box play, if he gets that right he will contend like we saw @ PGA Championships.

The OPEN Championships

It was around this time in 2022 when Cam won this MAJOR and he was okay when he defended his title in 2023 with a T33, since though he has not but we also have to be reminded he was in the wilderness for most of 2024 & 2025 in most events where the best convened.

Sure, Cam has won on LIV (3 wins) with many other T10 results on that tour he needs to be in the mix this weekend with media attention not focusing on him too much.

What we expect from Cam is his slick green play, when he is hot with the putter it shows, he has not played since being CUT at US Open & this is good for both his game to get back on track, he has flown under the radar with all the coverage I have watched for England.

I have chatted to the Stig and we both are very comfortable on taking +$200, currently $220 on betfair & the hope Cam can make good with his improvement as we saw with new swing coach Claude Harmon, he needs to assure up with a fast start early but we will try and get matched on betfair between $250-$300.

Only because we can, we think his price around $200 is very fair.

 

Alex Noren Win 280/1(+28000) 1.00 LOSS

What we sent out for the Swede last week when $260 @ Genesis Scottish Open.

2026 PGA stats-

  • 50th x SG: Total
  • 96th x SG: T2G
  • 96th x SG: OTT
  • 21st x DA @ 65.66%
  • 143rd x DD @ 284.50 yards (avg)
  • 106th x SG: APG
  • 112th x GIR @ 64.52%
  • 59th x SG: ARG
  • 10th x SG: PUT
  • 12/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 75%

The swede could be the most frustrating player currently in the 130 player PGT database, simply put he is world class with zero question of that fact & he has been a bit of a thorn in our side because we tipped him before he won the 2025 DPWT Betfred British Masters, Which was of no real surprise as advised we tipped him not long before that but he then really got under my skin when he won only 3 weeks later @ BMW PGA Championships, not to be confused with other events this is held at Wentworth GC in England.

That latest win though he had to dig deep and won in a playoff against Frenchman Adrien Saddier, he was then okay in a few events after including the DPWT final (T16) so we went cold off him as he then started too short in most events then out of nowhere, he nearly won in early December with only Hideki Matsuyama standing in his way-

  • 2nd x PGA HERO World Challenge with 69, 66, 67, 64 for -22

It was a playoff win loss to Hideki.

After 6 weeks off & perhaps the playoff loss he lost his mojo but AN went cut-cut before getting into gear with a T29 @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach, now that is a hard course and very much like the links courses in Europe, then 2 better results followed with his confidence restored with-

  • T24 x PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational with 72, 72, 69, 73 for -2
  • T12 x PGA The Genesis Invitational with 74, 66, 67, 66 for -11

Both course are tough!

After those early cuts in 2026 he went on a nice little run making 11 straight cuts before being sent home early in both the PGA RBC Canadian Open & PGA US Open, I am sure the latter hurts more as the swede does own 12 x DPWT wins to his credit.

We saw enough of him at the recent PGA Travelers where he played all 4 days but was 6 shots better than Ryan Fox was-

PGA Travelers stats

  • 46th x SG: OTT losing -0.694 strokes
  • T19 x DA @ 73.21% (41/56)
  • 68th x SG: APG losing -5.474 strokes
  • T66 x GIR @ 65.28% (47/72)
  • 61st x SG: ARG losing -2.128 strokes
  • 8th x SG: PUT +4.378 strokes gained
  • T55 x SG: Total -3.917

Now I deliberately left out a stat that we love AN for and it is not usually a one off etc, his scrambling at most events which is also evident as to how he can finish under par for the event but lose 8 shots in all other strokes gained metrics other than putting.

His -6 @ PGA Travelers was really an insane good finish & why he is included here this week in Scotland as he will be more comfortable than most the visiting USA players.

For the record he was-

  • 12th x Scrambling @ 72.00% (18/25)

His best result in the last 2 years in Scotland was a T10 in 2024 and was cut in 2025, but he usually bypassed the event before 2022 but of the 12 measured rounds he still does have a +0.63 strokes gained each round.

Most would come from his biggest weapon which is the putter but his wedge & iron play usually and his APG stat is a bit skewed as he had 2 cuts back-to-back in June which saw him lose a total of -5.23 strokes (-2.79 & -2.44) which losing around -2.5 every week on approach play is never easy in any SG metric to bounce back from.

His normal strokes gained approach play was good-

  • 6 straight events previously in + SG: APG
  • 11/12 before the 2 cuts in + SG: APG

I watched a recent interview this week, he had already returned to Europe for this (missed the John Deere deliberately) & although I am yet to watch any warms up from the range, I feel comfortable selecting him despite him now being 3 straight events losing strokes on approach.

Happy to have a play on AN who is around $260 on betfair now after opening @ $170, he quickly drifted out to $200 to then $230 and keeps drifting.

Because he keeps drifting and is yet to find any support, I would try for at least +$350 on betfair.

**A small reminder that because this is over the pond we will not have to wait until late evening to see the first ball is hit off the tee, it is scheduled for 4pm AEST on Thursday, please check bookmaker times but we send selections out shortly after 3pm so it will be around 24 hours before tee off where normally we have 30-32 hours to get set for prices.

Scottish Open

After AN tested our faith he commenced the Scottish Open when he bogeyed the very 1st hole (10th) & of course even my spirit shrunk, he then restored the faith when he went 4 birdies on holes 13, 14, 17 & 18. When AN started his back 9 holes he bogeyed the 4th & 9th but the other 7 holes were pars, his day ended with -1 (69) he did however give me hope & I am very critical of players.

Day 2 as hard as he tried, he just could not get any traction with 5 bogeys + 13 pars, but the damage was done and he went home early with rounds of 69 & 75.

Yes, we are going to give him like Harris English one more “the benefit of doubt” scenario as when this Swede has his approach play on song we know he contests strongly.

Because he is closer to $300 on betfair at the time of summary and not around $150 we can entertain his chances and hope like many that we have previously predicted right can turn his game around in England this weekend.

On betfair there is unmatched between $320-$340, try for +$400 and let it sit on betfair, for anyone that would like to see last week we managed $900 to $970 for Ryan Fox, did not matter in the end but small increments will likely get you matched for larger odds, if for example and we discussed this with a few last week if you go straight into $20 @ $900 it is highly unlikely you will get matched due to the exposure in peer to peer punting, reduce down and go between $5 to $10 as a suggestion only, we make no recommendations & can only offer suggestions.

When youtube is launched we will be showing members LIVE strategies via betfair.

 

 

Haotong Li Win 360/1(+36000) 1.00 LOSS

For those that have been a member for a while you would know at varying times, we have been good avid supporters of this Chinese player, and he did reward us back in 2025 @ DPWT Qatar Masters.

He is usually fun to watch, and we were waiting for him to hit the PGA fulltime which he did by qualifying with a T10 finish & the end of year DP World Tour final-

  • T8 x DPWT Championship

A T10 gives the tour players a 2026 PGA tour card entry into most events but not all.

2026 PGA stats-

  • 91st x SG: Total
  • 75th x SG: T2G
  • 24th x SG: OTT
  • 77th x DA @ 59.73%
  • 22nd x DD @ 301.60 yards (avg)
  • 58th x SG: APG
  • 12th x GIR @ 69.79%
  • 152nd x SG: ARG
  • 108th x SG: PUT
  • 7/18 Cuts made in 2026 for 38.8%

A few thing we will clarify, the first we would not normally entertain players that can only make less than 40% of CUTS, it never ends well, secondly Li has been so out of form but oddly enough at this particular event and it is a genuine links course he does perform quite remarkably like “out of nowhere”.

At the back end of 2025 & beginning of 2026 he was playing very good golf.

In 2025 at a different course, he finished 4th @ the OPEN Championship, he did not qualify for either edition in 2024 or 2023. Li was cut in 2022 & 2021, and it was not until 2018 he finished T39.

Of note at Royal Birkdale for the 2017 OPEN Championship, HE DID FINISH-

3rd x 2017 The OPEN with 69, 73, 69, 63 for -6 (274)

The -7 (63) on the final day was super impressive and many would say it was a one off, but this was well before he won 4 x DPWT events.

Li has always been on our player roster database and admittingly we were tracking him earlier in 2026 and we did select him once or twice, but players can often have this uncanny knack off popping up on courses where they have previously had good results.

I have watched a lot of Li on youtube in 2026 and when I say a lot it would be around 100 hours in the past few months as he often has videos of him and his friends in the SIM seeing if he can get a hole in one on approach, it is always his wedge & iron play that will bring him into contention.

In his last 6 events and remembering he was cut in 4 of those he had 3 (50%) in + SG: APG & the 3 events he missed he was only -0.53 strokes lost to a high of -1.16 shots lost per day on Avg, if he can turn this around in England he can provide another shock result, by shock I mean only according to odds makers.

**He has in PGA 2026 events still found 70% of greens (12th overall).

After opening around $340 on betfair there is now $360 but truly try and see if you can get matched on betfair above +$500 & then work your way backward if that fails.

With no recent disclosed form to us & others he really should be priced towards $500 IMO & we have left room like we have recently with only between 5% to 8% of the field selected for a late mail if we see a player flying under the radar.

As always we will give you heaps of time to get on the late mail.

Si Woo Kim Win (Late Mail) 20/1(+2000) 1.00 LOSS

We witnessed some incredible scoring with Lucas Herbert & Sam Burns card impressive 62 (-8) on day 2 of The Open Championships which they join only 1 player Brandon Grace in that event history (par 70) course.

There was much to take into consideration as we saw a few players make runs before late bogeys disrupted the flow & we estimate the last 36 holes players will need to card 65 (-5) to 66 (-4) to be in contention to winning the last major of 2026.

SWK has bought his “A” game to England after a big final day in Scotland last week with his closing 66 (-4).

From Genesis Scottish Open

  • 31st x SG: Off the Tee @ +1.100
  • T1 x Driving Accuracy @ 71.15% (37/52)
  • 19th x SG: Approach to Green @ +3.161
  • T22 x Greens in Regulation @ 73.61% (53/72)
  • 12th x SG: Around the Green @ +2.016
  • 21st x SG: Putting @ +3.602
  • T9 x SG: Total @ +9.879

SWK has never had any concerns with his driving of the ball or his wedge & iron play, his putter often does not convert all the hard work put in on the greens, when he is making strokes gained in his weakest SG metric it is time to include him in calculations.

The South Korean has been one of the most consistent players in 2026 with-

  • 9 x T10s in 2026
  • 18/19 Cuts made in 2026 for 94.7%

Even last week around the difficult Scottish course SWK was converting more than most-

  • T1 x 21 Birdies
  • Of course, for the birdies to matter you have to minimise the amount of bogeys, SWK did a decent job with only 8 bogeys over 4 days & despite him being around $20 on betfair, which is short the reason why PGT like him even at the reduced price is of the last few events he has made the cut and been there for the final 36 holes he has-

 

  • 3 of his last 4 events he has carded 65, 66, 66 on day 4

His overall scoring average is now also lower/better & we already have him scoring better than -10 in +55% of his event so far in 2026, this is important as we are handicapping players to be able to score at least -8 to -10 in the last 2 days of play.

After his only weakness, putting in his game is aligned he can be in contention for a look at winning his very first major, it is not a far stretch considering he has been one of the most consistent players in 2026. We just need his putter to continue as he was +1.21 strokes gained on day 1 & +0.74 strokes gained yesterday, when his putting is in +SG the rest of his game is so good, which to win a major all strokes gained metrics including tee to green must be positive.

Although the Stig & MJ are not fans of short odds with 36 holes to go SWK is a player who can improve & is around $20 on betfair.

Robert MacIntyre Win (Late Mail) 26/1(+2600) 1.00 LOSS

Bobby Mac was under pressure last weekend at his home event, The GENESIS Scottish Open in which he was in contention until day 4 but still mustered a handy 69 (-1) after possibly trying too hard in front of his Scottish fans.

In Scotland his front 9 was not how you want to start day 4 with 3 bogeys plus he even went a bogey on the 10th hole which saw him drop to +2 before he steadied the ship with an eagle on the par 5 (12th) & birdied the 14th & 17th holes but his event was over in the front 9.

From Genesis Scottish Open

  • 38th x SG: OTT @ +0.474
  • T30 x DA @ 53.85% (28/52)
  • 1st x SG: APG @ +9.691
  • 1st x GIR @ 83.33% (60/72)
  • 41st x SG: ARG @ +0.068
  • 34th x SG: PUT @ +1.646
  • T3 x SG: Total @ +11.879

After selecting Bobby Mac for an event earlier in 2026 we had made comments that he was far too fickle so when he had missed shots, he was expected to sink he would have minor explosions much like Wyndham Clark did throughout mid-2025. We also have deep & long analysis on HOW Wyndham changed his mental approach so for the last 36 holes around Royal Birkdale GC if RM can keep emotions in check and rely on what we have seen to date across his strokes gained metrics such as-

The OPEN

Day 1

  • +4.44 SG: Total with his best SG was +1.90 SG: PUT

Day 2

  • +1.35 SG: Total with all 4 SG metrics in positive territory

After day 2 combined we have RM sitting comfortably at -4 & again highlighting what we think of the current leader Lucas Herbert unable to repeat 62 (-8) & that is based on not only following Herbert on LIV but having backed him a few times where he has faded on each occasion so we expect that to continue.

Bobby Mac has to give SWK one shot before a golf ball is hit on day 3 but we are getting $26 to win outright, SWK is the more accurate player with his shots, but RM has improved his putting throughout the last 15 months & sits a high 9th on PGA tour for this metric.

We have weighted a lot on strokes gained approach & SG: PUT for players to be holding the claret jug this weekend. At $26 he is fair value but we cannot ignore a late run from our other late mail players either who represent better value despite having to give “starts”!

 

 

 

 

Collin Morikawa Win (Late Mail) 75/1(+7500) 1.00 LOSS

Before Day 2 had commenced we highlighted 3 players we had our eye on & CM looked very good early as he went to an early -3 on the front 9 (-5 for the event) & it looked likely he would challenge the leaders until a good shot on the 15th could not be converted and the par 3 turned into a 4-shot hole.

CM could not shrug it off either & went bogey on the 16th hole before recovering 1 of those lost shots with a birdie on the par 5, 17th hole to then turn his whole day upside down with a double bogey on the 18th hole, he ended day 2 with a 70 (even par), what was telling was his front 9 played in 36 whilst his back 9 was played in 39.

He will enter day 3 at -2 and of course if he was -5 which he should be then his odds would look more like SWK around $20.

Why stick with CM-

Both days (1 & 2) he has played the front 9 in 36 (-3)

  • +3.89 SG: APG on Day 1
  • +1.11 SG: PUT on Day 1

He lost -1.52 strokes off the tee which we saw good improvement on day 2 where he changed that on day 2 being +0.72 strokes off the tee, his only loss was around the greens on day 2 which was evident with him losing -3 strokes overall +4 minus -1) on the last 4 holes.

I have watched CM closely as we had selected him a few months ago & elected to leave him alone due to his continual back injury, but we saw him back to his best @ PGA Travelers Championship after bypassing Scotland Last week, he shot an incredible 61 (-9) on the final day @ TPC River Highlands + his 64 (-6) the day earlier he was -15 over the last 36 holes.

If you are going to shoot a 61 it is better to do it on day 3 or 4 not day 1 or 2 like we have seen with Lucas Herbert, 90% of players cannot emulate it back-to-back but from Cromwell we saw a focus which hopefully can be replicated here-

PGA Travelers-

  • 2nd x SG: OTT @ +3.593
  • 2nd x DA @ 89.29% (50/56)
  • 2nd x SG: APG @ +6.907
  • 1st x GIR @ 88.89% (64/72)
  • 67th x SG: ARG losing -3.296 strokes
  • 15th x SG: PUT @ +2.878
  • 3rd x SG: Total @ +10.083

Around TPC River Highlands CM was good scrambling (5/8 @ 62.50%) & he only had 6 bogeys in total over the 72 holes (avg = 1.5 per round) we expect what we saw on the final 4 holes from day 2 to NOT repeat itself in England.

On the PGA tour CM is better known for his wedge & iron play & sits a very high-

  • 2nd x SG: APG from all players in 2026 on PGA tour

I witnessed with my own eyes CM putting well on both day 1 & 2 up until that free fall on 3 of the final 4 holes overnight.

He is the one to watch despite giving the field 3 to 5 strokes start, he is a winner of this event in 2021 at a different course, but he did win earlier in 2026 @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach which is as closes as you get to a PGA course replicating the traditional links style in England, both courses are tough & at Pebble Beach CM was 1st on approach & 23rd in putting.

He also shot a 62 (-10) on day 3.

Yes, he is currently only at -2 but when we handicap players with 36 holes to go an old rule we use is delete leader and the filed is chasing -6 in this instance, so he really is only 4 shots back.

We also do not see Herbert, Jackson, Gerard (massive fan), Wallace & Cauley be in the T10 on day 4 (IMO) so it’s a big call but we are looking for players who earlier advised can card 65 (-5) to 66 (-4) on average for the remaining 2 days.

If CM starts like days 1 & 2 and can player safer on the back 9 then he sets himself up for a shot at his 2nd major win & around $75 on betfair is value. His best is clearly good enough but we need him to be on fire early.

 

 

J.J. Spaun Win (Late Mail) 90/1(+9000) 1.00 LOSS

After JJ won the PGA Valero Open in early April it looked like it would get his year into gear after defeating our $200 shot, Michael Kim but he got rather lucky when he eagled the 17th but since that victory his game slowed & his best finish since was multiple T10 results at-

  • T7 @ PGA Travelers with 66, 65, 68, 64 for -17
  • T6 @ PGA Charles Schwab with 64, 68, 68, 70 for -10
  • T5 @ PGA Truist with 69, 79, 65, 69 for -11

What you see with JJ is more consistent rounds in that he will rarely shoot the lights out like a 61 or 62 but can maintain the -3 or -4 on USA courses, that can easily equate to the -4 to -5 required here.

Most of his stroke’s gained metrics are going good, the one like so many with other players that is not consistently performing is his putting, when he can hold his own is when he results well, same applies to most in this field other than players like Sam Burns who can regularly sit in positive strokes gained with his putter.

The 2026 PGA stats we like with JJ that are consistent are-

  • 9th x SG: T2G
  • 4th x SG: APG

Even in Scotland last week where many of the best OWGR players were cut we saw JJ again outperform his weak link in strokes gained putting-

Scotland

  • 49th x SG: PUT @ +0.698

Whilst it may not read impressively that is good going for JJ as he sat in 16th overall in approach which is his go to metric that anytime we see JJ hit positive figures it results well always.

The OPEN

After a safe start 70 (even par) on day 1 which is generally predictable for him he will consistently grind out an event unlike Morikawa who can shoot low to leap frog players, this attribute to grind though is often seen at majors to win events, the whole thought process is “ start safe day 1, improve into day 2 to make the cut, day 3 start to make birdies and by day 3 you understand the course more, day 4 make a move” now we know day 3 is TRADITIONAL MOVING day but players need to position themselves to be in contention with only 18 holes to play.

Around Royal Birkdale JJ after 36 holes (avg per day)-

  • +0.50 x SG: OTT
  • +1.32 x SG: T2G
  • +0.75 x SG: APG
  • +0.08 x SG: ARG
  • +1.06 x SG: PUT
  • +2.40 x SG: Total

We know JJ can always lean on his wedge & iron play which saw only +0.17 strokes gained on day 1 & on day 2 a better +1.33 strokes gained on approach.

This is what we want to see, all we need from JJ is to keep his putting stats in positive & it would not surprise me he can get to at least -8 to -9 or better from his current -3, he will need to push as players will have to be in double figures to win (is -13 to -14 enough?)

Currently around $90 on betfair but the market is moving every time I look it up he is close enough to make his numbers work and make a run, already a winner of a major (US Open) + 2 other PGA events he knows what it takes, he had struggles with his mental strength before seeking a good mental coach in Julie Elion.

 

 

Patrick Reed Win (Late Mail) 110/1(+11000) 1.00 LOSS

PR takes our players selected now to 8.3% of the field (156 players) & he like Collin Morikawa was a player we had our eyes on before day 2 commenced, we always like PR due to his very good scoring with his elite ball striking.

After leaving LIV he had made his mark back on the DPWT winning a few and we liked him enough to pick him @ $55 for the US Open in mid-June.

He is our outsider in the late mail selections, but he will start at -2 along with Colin Morikawa & 1 stroke off original pick Tyrell Hatton so we now have a total of 9 players to win the final major in 2026.

The OPEN

After a 72 (+2) on day 1 his weekend was looking like it would end early until a surge on day 2 saw a better 66 (-4) which did see 7 birdies which was reduced by 3 bogeys & 2 of those came late on the 16th & 18th holes.

What was rather impressive was he went 5 birdies on the first 7 holes which upon watching both days its is very possible to bird at least 3 of the first 4 holes so we will need a run on day 3 like we saw on day 2.

Day 2-

  • -0.23 losing SG: OTT strokes
  • +3.39 SG: T2G
  • +4.48 SG: APG
  • -0.85 losing SG: ARG strokes
  • +0.96 SG: PUT
  • +4.36 SG: Total

The goal for our selections is to hit 65 or 66 on both days, finding most fairways will set up the next shot to the green and this is imperative so fingers crossed most it not all can achieve this from our 9 players to challenge.

Currently around $110 on betfair which starting @ -2 FOR THE EVENT is risky we have seen big efforts from our players recently when winning, it all comes down to who will run hot with 36 holes to go & generally players who are yet to peak over the weekend.

Always try & get matched on betfair for higher than we suggest, we understand it often tricky but if you are time poor just accept what is easily available so you do not miss out.

#Tips Wins Units Net Profit ROI
13 0 13.00 -13.00 -100.00%