PGA The Genesis Invitational 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

PGA Tour

Course

The Riviera Country Club

Location

Pacific Palisades, CA

Date

19 February 2026

2026-02-19

America/Los_Angeles

View odds market

The Riviera Country Club, renowned for its challenging layout and iconic features, has hosted major golf events since 1929. It is the course for the Genesis Invitational, a Signature Event on the PGA TOUR, and will host the 2031 U.S. Open.

Opening Holes: The first hole is a par 5 offering early scoring opportunities, often playing as the easiest hole on the course. The second hole, a tough par 4, is the No. 1 handicap hole, featuring a narrow green and challenging bunkers. Despite their different pars, the scoring averages for these holes are close.

Unique Grass: Riviera’s Kikuyu fairways and rough make approach shots difficult, as the sticky grass affects ball movement and shot selection.

Signature Par-3: The sixth hole is famous for its bunker placed in the middle of the green, creating a two-tiered putting surface and requiring creative shot-making. All quadrants of the green bring the central bunker into play, making birdie possible only with precise placement.

Drivable Par-4: The tenth hole is a short par 4 that tempts players to drive the green, but deep bunkers and a narrow surface make recovery shots difficult. Both right- and left-handed players must shape their shots carefully, and lay-up options are also risky due to fairway bunkers and trees.

Dramatic Finish: The 18th hole is surrounded by a natural amphitheatre, creating a dramatic setting for the tournament’s conclusion with the clubhouse and gallery in view.

The Course-

Par 71

7’383 yards

• 3 x par 5s

• 11 x par 4s

• 4 x par 3s

Fairways & Rough: Kikuyu

Greens: Poa annua

Player’s ball striking & putting will be rewarded on the smaller greens, so we have weighted greens in regulation for the 2^nd week in a row.

Player skills suited in California-

Driving Accuracy Off the Tee
Ball striking
Par 4 scoring
GIR above 70%
Proven putters on Poa Annua greens

Not so much a repeat of last week where many golfers struggled to keep the ball on the fairways at Pebble Beach, here I would expect most to maintain above 60% driving accuracy.

As we saw with a Scott Scheffler putt last week on the difficult Poa Annua greens the ball can look as if it “diverts quickly” like a ricochet.

Expect the better putters to rapidly climb up the leaderboard like we saw on Day 4. More rain is expected to fall around Los Angeles so expect the greens to slow the first 2 days then as they dry out for final 2 days speed up.

It is all about timing this week, in which player is trending in the right direction.

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.

Competitor	Tip Type	Odds	Units	Result	Rationale
Scottie Scheffler	Win	4.6/1(+460)	5.00	LOSS	• 1st x SG: T2G • 2nd x SG: OTT • 1st x SG: APG • 16th x SG: ARG • 22nd x SG: PUT • 71.39% Greens in regulation • 63.04% Driving Accuracy • 100% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 • 100% top 25 in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (3/3) • 67.99 Stroke avg • 20 x PGA Wins The #1 player in the game is truly making some incredible shots of late and although he is the favourite we will be making him the main play with the most units (5) concentrated because last week he was simply insanely good. Pebble Beach stats- • 1st x SG: Off the Tee @ +4.030 • 34th x SG: Approach to Green @ +0.751 • T32 x Greens in Regulation @ 72.22% (52/72) • 11th x SG: Around The Green @ +2.865 • 22nd SG: Putting @ +1.855 • 5th x SG: Total @ +9.501 • T28 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.64% (39/56) It must be noted on Day 4 Scheffler was ranked 1st in Putting on the Poa greens which was a stark contrast to his 74th around the greens. He has proven in his last 2 events that even slow starts like @ WP Phoenix 73 & last week @ Pebble Beach 72 are not enough to slow him down. He only has to start with them to Win this week. He is our banker with 5 units to WIN outright @ around $4.60 on betfair & players who have sat in the T10 in Strokes gained total in the last few events should figure here. The goal is a return of +23 units minimum with our total outlay being 11 units over all 7 players.
Patrick Cantlay	Win	34/1(+3400)	1.00	LOSS	• 15th x SG: T2G • 38th x SG: OTT • 15th x SG: APG • 79th x SG: ARG • 63rd x SG: PUT • 70.05% GIR • BTA- below tour avg for driving accuracy • 85% made cut in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 50% top 25 in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 69.81 stroke avg • 8 x PGA wins We have been following a few players that have been playing well over in the TGL & Cantlay is one of those players we rarely select but his latest figures and the timing could provide fruitful around a course he has resulted in most years he has played. Another from Pebble Beach who only got moving late on day 4 when he carded a -7. It was not his putting either that stalled a higher result as from day 1 through to day 4 he sat in the T30 in SG: PUT, it was Day 2 that thwarted his move and on both days 2 & 4 he really struggled around the greens. It was a stark contrast on Day 4 where PC was ranked- • 1st x SG: APG. There was a handful of players who really were up & down and if they can bring their entire game up this week they can easily sit high on the leader board & remain high, PC was still good overall last week with his- • T14 @ -17 with rounds of 66, 71, 69, 65 The focus this week is for Cantlay to prove our stats correct & his weakness is his driving, if he can keep it out of the rough on fairways he can be in the mix come day 4. Currently around $34 & to be honest I was expecting him to firm as he opened @ $30 late on Monday night (AEST) but we believe he is better value than Xander.
Matt Fitzpatrick	Win	46/1(+4600)	1.00	LOSS	• 62nd x SG: T2G • 82nd x SG: OTT • 76th x SG: APG • 63rd x SG: ARG • 30th x SG: PUT • 66.74% GIR • 61.29% DA • 80.9% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (3/3) • 47.6% top 25 in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 70.08 stroke avg • 2 x PGA Wins Yes, the Stig & MJ have backed up again on MF after another honest showing @ Pebble Beach with his- • T14 @ -17 with rounds of 66, 68. 70, 67 This is the 3rd week we are on the Englishman who has NOT been showing his usually reliable putting, last week he sat in 44th x SG: PUT & the week prior @ WM Phoenix he was worse with 55th losing -1.536 strokes. As we watch all the events and to my own eyes he is not far off turning the putting corner as he has missed some close putts & even last week around a tougher course than usual MF was- • 10th in putting on day 1 • 61st & 63rd on Day 2 • 34th in SG: PUT on day 4 Had a few of the putts made it than missed by 20mm his putting stats would look a whole lot better; this is what happened the week prior as well. • MF is known as a much better putter overall than what he is producing. He was after all 30th amongst all PGA players in 2025 & what I do like is his iron play- • 3rd x SG: APG @ +7.798 strokes gained. He has improved in all of 2026 to sit in 15th x SG: Total- his overall game is solid so whether it is a conscious choice to improve other parts of his game? He only needs a few balls to fall his way, and he was only 5 shots off Colin Morikawa last week with very ordinary stats. Of course we cannot keep going back to the well so since opening on betfair @ $40 he has found support currently @ $46, I did see $48 to $50 earlier so see if you can get matched @ +$50, his win last year against Rory was a good grinding win, so he has it in him.
Jake Knapp	Win	50/1(+5000)	1.00	LOSS	• 62nd x SG: T2G • 82nd x SG: OTT • 76th x SG: APG • 63rd x SG: ARG • 30th x SG: PUT • 66.74% GIR • 61.29% DA • 80.90% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (4/4) • 47.60% top 25 in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (4/4) • 70.08 stroke avg • 2 x PGA Wins Another play we are backing up on as he fits the same mould as Fitzpatrick in that I honestly have cried in his near misses of late. Both the Stig & MJ were confident coming into day 4 when he sat in a position he could strike @ -17. JK blew his good putting over the previous 54 holes as coming into day 4 he was ranked- • 1st in SG: PUT & was +3.074 strokes gained per day That blew to- • 61st in SG: PUT & the opposite occurred losing -1.189 strokes He looked nervous on the front 9 and after a birdie to settle the nerves on the par 4, 4th hole he went on to bogey the par 3, 7th hole & from there the back 9 looked up and down. The rest is history but he lamented to finish -1 on day 4 when players were dialling in he struggled. So why back up on JK this week? Of late he has put in 3 good days from 4 in all 4 events in 2026 with good results- • T11 @ Sony Open with rounds of 66, 68, 70, 66. • T5 @ Farmers Open with 66. 70. 70. 67. • 8th @ WM Phoenix Open with 67, 69, 66, 68. • T8 @ AT&T Pebble Beach with 66, 67, 66, 71. I feel it will all click for JK & his story of what happened in 2025 is well documented but like MF he just needs a few more balls to fall in his favour. We are waiting for the KO from JK but his current price around $50 on betfair we deem value considering & not to compare everyone to Xander who is half the odds, JK is proving he has been more consistent than most in 2026. If he can maintain 4 days of putting consistently then he looks like the obvious danger to Scheffler.
Sam Burns	Win	50/1(+5000)	1.00	LOSS	• 107th x SG: T2G • 71st x SG: OTT • 127th x SG: APG • 94th x SG: ARG • 1st x SG: PUT • 66.08% GIR • BTA- below tour avg in 2025 DA • 88.1% made cuts in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 52.3% top 25 in 2025 + 33.33% in 2026 (1/3) • 69.59 stroke avg • 5 x PGA Wins SB was a late inclusion as we originally had a total of 6 players but like many analysts we @ PGT were waiting to see signs of form from the #1 putter on PGA tour turn up. Luckily, we left him alone for both the WM Phoenix & Pebble Beach last week but to be fair from 3 events so far in 2026 he was sound @ The AMEX with a T27 so many backed up on him the week later. We did not see that and left him alone. Last week he did what he should have done & franked his good putting prowess with- • 5th x SG: PUT SB started the front 9 on fire with birdies @ 2, 3, 4 then 6 & 7 and no one looked as red hot, he slowed down coming into the back 9 with 5 straight pars from the 8th hole to 12th hole before his next birdie on the 13th hole, a par 4, that forwarded him to -6 with 5 holes to go. At a similar time our own selection Sepp Straka along with one of our favourites, Min Woo Lee were putting pressure on the leaders, Burns struggled and after a bogey on the 17th you could see it was all over with the expression evident on Burns face. SB will tee off in group 6 this week with Ben Griffin & Keegan Bradley so they all should push each other & we are big believers in the better group pairings firing. As we are all aware SB is known as one of the very best on tour for putting, he only needs to replicate his iron play where he was a good 21st in SG: APG & his overall consistent Off the Tee driving saw him in 16th. He was also sound in Driving accuracy- • 64.29% of fairways found (36/56) x just needs to replicate last week figures. There were players in 2026 like Cam Young, Sam Burns & Xander Shauffele, Russell Henley who we were waiting to fire so we can stick with the player who already has, SB just needs to stay in touch with the leaders as even if he can pick up +1.5 strokes per day putting that overall is +6 shots on the field. His price of $50 on betafir currently seems overs considering he contended last week and players below him in betting on betfair (7 others) finished behind him @ Pebble Beach. I think his price should be closer to Patrick Cantlay around $34.
Keegan Bradley	Win	90/1(+9000)	1.00	LOSS	• 9th x SG: T2G • 32nd x SG: OTT • 39th x SG: APG • 8th x SG: ARG • 114th x SG: PUT • 66.04% GIR • 61.39% DA • 90.5% made cuts in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 52.4% top 25 in 2025 + 0 in 2026 • 69.91 x stroke avg • 8 x PGA Wins KB the captain of the 2025 USA Ryder Cup team can be a hard player to catch to Win outright. We had a few of our players chase him hard on day 4 @ PGA Travelers Championships in June of 2025 after he opened the door with his 70 on Day 2, he did crank it up to a low 63 (-7) on day 3 to put a bit of separation before paddling on day 4 with his -2, we had several finish hard to fall just short. Now he is another like a few we are following of late who brings decent form indoors from the TGL & he always will figure when he addresses his wayward putting. Now he was very measured last week @ Pebble Beach and this is the KB we want to see here @ Riviera- • 37th x SG: OTT over 72 holes (high of 21st on Day 2-with 22nd on Day 3) • 66th x SG: APG over 72 holes (high of 11th on Day 1- the rest was +50th) • 4th x SG: ARG over 72 holes • 20th x SG: PUT over 72 holes (high of 17th Day 1) highlighting his consistency KB did card an impressive -9 (63) on Day 1 & the eventual winner Colin Morikawa was ( -10 on day 3) & if you have been on the profitable journey with us you know we would prefer -4 or -5 each day but as Scheffler proved last week (-9) if you are going to have your best day then day 4 is when to bring it. Not on Day 1. If we look more deeply into KBs putting stats in 2025 they were terrible being ranked @ 114th overall, We do not even mind if a player in our weekly roster sits around 60th, usually they bolster overall play with other stronger strokes gained metrics. What we can prove is Keegan has now- • 8 of his last 13 events in Positives strokes gained for Putting • 3 of the 5 negative events he was less than -0.50 strokes His stats would look incredible if that read 11 of his last 13 so its apart of his game he has improved, I personally have seen him sink some monster putts in various TGL events. We are feeling much better in including KB as a rough hope this week as he has- • 22 of his last 25 events all in +SG: Total He just has the habit of bobbing up when no one expects it. The signature event this week reduces to 72 players from 80 the previous week & I thought Bradley would be a significant drifter but he opened @ $80 late Monday night on betfair and is around $90 currently. I would suggest trying to get matched between $110 to $120 on betfair, we have to remember that the field is only 72 players and KB is around $90 if he was in a full field of +150 players would he be closer to +$150? Very possible but he is still on our radar & still sits well within our Top 50 of our own PGT player roster. So until he really disappoints he must be kept safe.
Jordan Spieth	Win	110/1(+11000)	1.00	LOSS	• 24th x SG: T2G • 33rd x SG: OTT • 58th x SG: APG • 31st x SG: ARG • 65th x SG: PUT • 64.62% GIR • BTA-below tour average for driving accuracy in 2025 • 89.5% made cuts in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3) • 42.1% top 25 in 2025 + 33.33% in 2025 (1/3) • 70.07 stroke avg • 13 x PGA Wins We were following JS and deliberately left him alone last week @ Pebble Beach & I will be the first to admit that when I saw him up in the T10 coming into day 3 @ -10 I did think perhaps I made an error. I mean we do a lot of homework here @ PGT and we watch so much golf & if you read previous analysis of Jordan from us we are fans, JS has been quoted previously to many media outlets saying "I was better than Scott". Perhaps so but Scheffler will be writing new history in the coming years, but what was very noticeable from Jordy was- • 6th x SG: PUT on day 1 @ +2.490 strokes gained • 3rd x SG: PUT on day 2 @ +2.785 strokes gained • 11th x SG: PUT on day 3 @ +1.741 strokes gained Now day 4 was crucial and like more than 50% of players day 4 was tough & Jordy dropped to 62nd in SG: PUT losing -1.193 strokes to the field (the field was 80 players). His 3 days were so strong however as he was ranked overall at- • 3rd in SG: PUT over 72 holes @ +5.822 strokes gained If we compare this with Sam Burns the best know putter in the PGA who was ranked 5th. We watch everything including body language with all players & even before teeing off can tell you so much & we absorb what the commentator's comment on whether it being chit chat or to what club is being chosen and why and perhaps why they also think not a good choice. (they are notable former players) not just lounge chair experts! The player then executes and I must say some of the +50 feet hole outs I have witnessed makes you want to get out on the course. JS has been on a slow burn which we mentioned in previous summaries since his wrist injury, he is growing in confidence, and it is showing with- • 2 from 3 cuts in 2026 • 2 x Top 30 in results in 2026 • All his measured SG metrics have improved from late 2025 into 2026 We saw a glimpse of how his game is improving, like a good horse it would be ignorant to turn away & we are getting very speculative odds around $110 on betfair after opening @ $95 on betfair 48 hours prior. His best is good enough and hopefully he believes in what we are slowly seeing. for most of last week he looed sharper than ever & was only quoted last week as "I feel my play on the course is better than the results reflect". In our previous summary he was quoted as saying he now has "confidence in his strength of his wrist to put shots where he wants them" You often see players take time to get back to full health after injuries & even though we have the banker in Scheffler utilising 5 units we are more than happy if Jordan wins here at nice odds of $110 with 1 unit on him.
Rory McIlroy	Win (Late Mail)	7.8/1(+780)	1.00	LOSS	McIlroy is among 9 players on the PGA TOUR who have won when the 54-hole lead was 6 shots. He rallied to beat Scottie Scheffler in the TOUR Championship in 2023 to win the FedExCup. On the flip side we have Jacob Bridgeman with "a lead big enough to win a Melbourne Cup" as he searches for his very first win on the PGA tour in his 69th career start. McIlroy was quoted "I hung in there, I wish I was a couple closer to the lead. It looks like I'll be in the final group. Hopefully, put a little pressure on Jacob tomorrow. I've given myself a chance, and that's all I can ask for." It is. On the unpredictable Poa annua greens & if you have been watching the bumps and diverts the balls are taking when close to the hole players are left in complete shock, they are very tricky as they tend to hit the soft green, hit a bump and ricochet away. McIlroy used his experience as he was cautious on the greens, fast and bumpy late in the afternoon, and closed out his round of 69 with 7 straight pars. His APG play solid- 7th x SG: APG +1.73 strokes gained on day 3 compared to JB who was +5.93 18th x SG: APG +1.10 strokes gained on day2 compared to JB who was -1.06 strokes lost 10th x SG: APG +1.70 strokes gained on day 1 compared to JB who was +2.17 We wanted to highlight the approach game above, as through 54 holes we have seen JB on day 1 rank 69th amongst 72 players in SG: ARG so around the greens was not so good, then on day 2 he was 56th in SG: APG & on day 3 other parts crept in but the media just focused on how far in front he was as no one mentioned JB was 40th in SG: OTT + 43rd in SG: ARG. Highlighting Rory was only 40th in SG: PUT but his last 7 holes were all in Par, he was not pushing either & this affects his putting stats overall. Also to be fair other than South African, Aldrich Potgieter who started his moving day with an eagle on the 1st hole with a further 6 birdies but his bogey on hole 3 & 18 stopped his march from -8 down to -6 there were no real challengers so I am on record as saying, it was also JB played well and not many others did barring the few exceptions. The big movers never really materialised. Jacob Bridgeman has a sizeable lead, make no mistakes & he was asked about his nerves when leading @ The Valspar Championships- "I think on the tee I expected to be nervous and feeling more pressure than I did. Then, when I got on the tee, it was kind of eerie that I didn't feel that and I felt good. I think I sort of psych myself out a little bit. I didn't play great Sunday at Valspar, but I still kind of hung in there, gave myself a chance". Punters like us want to hear that and he gave himself a chance last week @ Pebble Beach with his -16 before tee off on Sunday where he managed only 70 (-2). To also recognise JB was- 1st x SG: PUT on day 2 with +3.64 strokes gained putting 12th x SG: PUT today on day 3 with +1.26 strokes gained putting His APG was the best it has ever been overall but as we saw above with the stats there are areas he needs to pay attention to, not normally a noted slick Iron play on approach and he credits all his work with swing coach, Stuart McDonald but the Stig & MJ are hoping this event is an anomaly in his approach play. Of course 6 shots is still 6 shots but hopefully there is pressure from others on an early run tomorrow before Rory & Jacob tee off as the final pairing but Rory has been here many times before so we can only hope he does sink a few early and has JB thinking about it from hole to hole. We like a chaser! Currently on betfair exchange Rory is $7.40 out to $7.80 & why not try & get matched for $8 to $9, you could even be really cheeky & try for +$12 as many think 6 shots is near impossible to claw back.
Robert MacIntyre	Top 10 (Late Mail)	9.2/1(+920)	1.00	LOSS	To start with there is a host of players around the -7 to -5 that would be a hope in the T10 markets, I envisage at least a 72 hole -12 maybe -13 would be enough to bank the T10, so that means those players really have to shoot a good 65 (-6) to even be some chance. Enter a player we have found from time to time in the moody Scotsman, Robert Macintyre. I advise moody as he can be very temperamental but he can play, we saw on moving day today he was warming up nicely with his 66 (-5) but it could have been as low as (62 to 63) considering he missed a few close putts but it took him the previous 36 holes to figure out the Poa annua greens & was only one of a handful of players that played the 16th par 3 very well. Robert Macintyre really improved his stats, this is a glimpse of his overall (54 holes)- • 28th x SG: Off the Tee @ +0.371 strokes gained • 51st x Greens in Regulation @ 51.85% (28/54) • 47th x SG: Approach to Green @ -2.724 losing strokes • 8th x SG: Around the Green +2.166 strokes gained • 16th x SG: Putting @ +2.369 strokes gained • T22 x SG: Total @ +2.183 • T28 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (24/42) fairways hit Today on day 3 RB showed a really calm approach to his day & hopefully it is can only benefit his mental approach. • 17th x SG: OTT @ +0.503 • T9 x GIR @ 72.22% (13/18) • 21st x SG: APG @ +0.306 • 12th x SG: ARG @ +0.778 • 4th x SG: PUT @ +2.276 • T4 x SG: Total @ +3.863 • T5 x DA @ 71.43% (10/14) fairways • 18th x Driving Distance @ 300.40 yds • T4 x Bogey avoidance with only 1 today The Scotsman is already qualified into bigger events so hopefully this calmness can sink a few holes early as he will be feeling more positive about his game, he should, it was a different RB than we have seen usually so it should reflect on his low score for the final day of play. I did look at a few of our players that were selected to Win outright such as Fitzpatrick, Spieth, Cantlay & Knapp & to a lesser degree Scott Scheffler who could go for broke Sunday but the latter was too short around $2.70 on betfair at time of summary. Throughout last week I did have email discussions with a few of you regarding the backing of selections to not only to Win but also to cover the outlay in T10 & T20 markets. The new 2026 model for PGT we have decided to shift it up but we select & back players to win but if your banks allows it then of course it makes clear sense to cover the outlay like we did in previous years. We can only best describe why back only 1 horse in a race when going Dutch style betting has proven far more profitable. Price is at time of summary from betfair @ $9.20, I did look around at various global bookmakers like BET365 as we do have a few International members so please shop wisely and please keep in mind at the time of Analysis it is still 12 hours before tee off so price can firm or drift.

#Tips	Wins	Units	Net Profit	ROI
9	0	13.00	-13.00	-100.00%