PGA Texas Children’s Houston Open 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

• 10th x SG: T2G
• 23rd x SG: OTT
• 27th x SG: APG
• 37th SG: ARG
• 103rd x SG: PUT
• 6th x Driving Distance @ 319.10
• 3rd x Driving Distance All drives @ 304.2
• 51.65% x Driving Accuracy
• 68.16% x Greens in Regulation

We are not overly concerned that his current rank of 103rd in Putting as this course is wide open and suits his strongest skill very well and we saw his putting on display when he won the SONY open as was ranked 7th in Putting @ +5.089 strokes gained & even with his win @ WM Phoenix CG was ranked 49th but still managed to beat a far stronger field than this.

With the withdrawal of Scott Scheffler CG was still $25 to win in outright markets on betfair so he is now around $20 to win his 3rd event in 2026.

so far on PGA tour in 2026-

• 36th x SG: T2G
• 26th x SG: OTT
• 15th x SG: APG
• 139th x SG: ARG
• 109th x SG: PUT
• 47th x Driving Distance @ 307.80
• 19th x Driving distance All drives @ 299
• 60.86% x Driving Accuracy
• 71.56% x GIR

We saw with KK when he stormed into 2nd @ PGA Genesis Invitational that he can putt with the best of them as it was also on the very trying poa annua greens which tricked most that weekend but he did sit in 14th overall in SG: PUT picking up +3.112 strokes.

What also was impressive was his -7 (64) on day 4 which he did also card on Day 2.

Another player that is suited around Memorial and he cashed in for T36 in 2024 & T39 in 2025 but he is also playing better golf coming into this weekend.

He was also around $46 before the withdrawal of SS so he is currently around $38 on betfair but I suggest trying to get matched for +$45.

Last week at the Valspar-

31st x SG: OTT @ +0.714 strokes gained
28th x SG: APG @ +2.185
8th x SG: ARG @ +3.550
29th x SG: PUT @ +1.765
T7 x SG: Total @ +8.214
T60 x Driving Accuracy @ 46.15% (24/52)
9th x Driving Distance @ 314.20 yds
12th x Longest Drive @ 351.00 yds
T28 x GIR @ 58.33% (42/72)

Talking about hitting form at the right time for the 2024 Winner plus he has terrific form overall including-

• T9 x 2023
• 1st x 2024
• T11 x 2025

Last week he picked up a handy +3.14 strokes gained in T2G and he ranks 46th overall in 2026 for Putting.

He was $85 before the scratching of Scheffler and there has been consistent money for the German player between $60 & $70 on betfair, at the time of analysis there is plenty of $70 on betfair available.

Last week @ Valspar-

• 74th x SG: OTT losing -5.243 strokes
• 8th x SG: APG @ +4.194 strokes gained
• 2nd x SG: ARG @ +7.646
• 66th x SG: PUT losing -1.383 stokes
• T18 x SG: Total @ +5.214
• T71 x Driving Accuracy @ 38.46% (20/52)
• 28th x Driving Distance @ 307.00 yds
• 9th x Longest Drive @ 355.00 yds
• T72 x GIR @ 48.61% (35/72)

It was a tough event for TF last week but despite him losing 5 strokes Off the Tee he managed to gain +7.5 around the greens.
He is a player that is a course fit and there was closer to $100 before the favourite withdrew.

• 32nd x 2025
• 2nd x 2024
• 1st x 2023

I have seen with my own eyes the rapid improvements around the greens with TF and so far in 2026 he has been consistent with-

• 5 from 8 cuts made in 2026
• 3 x T25 in 2026

TF has also won 6 x PGA unlike many players this week looking for their first victory on tour.

In a field this week where you will be hardly penalised for finding the rough unlike the previous 3 weeks TF can go to work around the greens, currently around $80 on betfair but I expect him to remain relatively firm as punters search out course fit players.

From the Cognizant

• 23rd x SG: OTT @ +1.842
• 49th x SG: APG losing -1.243 strokes
• 15th x SG: ARG @ +1.786
• 16 x SG: PUT @ +2.649
• T17 x SG: Total @ +5.033 strokes gained
• T20 x Driving Accuracy @ 62.50% (35/56)
• 24th x Driving Distance @ 305.50 yds
• T39 x Longest Drive @ 336.00 yds
• T4 x GIR @ 76.39% (55/72)

It was a good result for the Norwegian and he is a player that sits much higher in our 115 player rotation than most PGA Non winners do.

Why?

• 1st x DPWT in 2026 for Driving Distance
• 2nd x DPWT stroke avg 67.75 (Ryan Gerard is 1st @ 66.50 & SWK 2nd @ 67.5)
• 1st x DPWT Par 4 scoring @ 3.83
• 2nd x DPWT Par 5 scoring @ 4.25

He is like a few players this week that you could categorize as the usual "Bomber/Putter".

There was plenty of +$120 around when I spotted him as value but with the withdrawal of SS many prices have changed and you can comfortably get around $80 now.

In previous summaries we have sent out we also highlighted he has a few low rounds in Europe such as 60, 61, 62 so when he is on song this is not uncommon for him to go low. Regardless of what he does this week he is a name you will be seeing more of.

From the Arnold Palmer Invitational-

• 49th x SG: OTT losing -5.930 strokes
• 10th x SG: APG @ +3.215 strokes gained
• 46th x SG: ARG losing -2.395 strokes
• 3rd x SG: PUT +6.977
• T18 x SG: Total @ +1.867
• T47 x Driving Accuracy @ 46.43% (26/56)
• 36th x Driving Distance @ 300.20 yds
• 9th x Longest Drive @ 358.00 yds
• 10th x GIR @ 66.67% (48/72)

It took many events for The Stig & MJ to forgive Max after his 2nd @ PGA Baycurrent as it was an event he really should have put to rest after leading, the history shows a red hot Xander chased him down so it took 8 events for us here @ PGT to forgive and finally select him around a course in which his typical "Bombing/Putting" should see him sit high on the leaderboard.

In 3 of his last 3 events MG has looked ready to peak-

• T18 X PGA Arnold Palmer with 74, 70, 74, 67 for -3
• T24 X PGA The Genisis Invitational with 68, 66, 70, 73 for -7
• T37 x AT&T Pebble Beach with 68, 68, 69, 72 for -11

At the PGA Arnold Palmer whilst all eyes were on the leaders Berger and the surging Bhatia, Max shot 6 birdies on the first 12 holes before a bogey on 16 halted his progression.

There was between $130 to $150 just yesterday on betfair so another casualty of the withdrawal of SS as there is $100 currently available on betfair. He may drift to +$120 as money comes in late for the more fancied few up the top.

From his T24 @ The Players Championships-

• 7th x SG: OTT @ +3.815
• 30th x SG: APG @ +1.891
• 59th x SG: ARG losing -1.487 strokes
• 32nd x SG: PUT @ +1.434 strokes gained
• T24 x SG: Total @ +5.653
• T20 x Driving Accuracy @ 66.07% (37/56)
• 7th x Driving Distance @ 306.40 yds
• T21 x Longest Drive @ 345.00 yds
• T33 x GIR @ 62.50% (45/72)

WM was even better the previous fortnight when he strutted his new form for a-

• T6 x PGA Cognizant Classic with 68, 70, 68, 67 for -11

WM is no stranger to us as we have selected him a few times in 2025 and he does own a few low rounds such as the 61 when winning the ISCO in 2025 along with a few 63s at various events since.

On a course that should set up rather nicely, The Stig & I only had a conversation regarding him on Tuesday when there was as much as $230 available, not sure if someone tipped him publicly but you can only get around $110 on betfair, Very possible he drifts after then market settles more.

From the Valspar-

• 16th x SG: OTT @ +2.124 strokes gained
• 12th x SG: APG @ +3.923
• 49th x SG: ARG losing -0.294 strokes
• 46th x SG: PUT @ +0.461
• T14 x SG: Total @ +6.214
• T64 x Driving Accuracy @ 44.23% (23/52)
• 2nd x Driving Distance @ 321.00 yds
• T7 x Longest Drive @ 357.00 yds
• T28 x GIR @ 58.33% (42/72)

We like many have been waiting for his good feel story to prosper but he has had some up and down events in 2025 and 2026 but after finding some form last week he can carry confidence into an event he has hit 3 straight results in-

• T2 x 2025
• T21 x 2024
• T9 x 2023

Currently ranked-

• 1st in Driving distance across all PGA players in 2026

He should be able to pick up yardage from hole to hole and his usual approach play is fair being ranked 125th but he does find 68% of greens in regulation and this will be easier for a few this week & as long as he does not give away too many strokes on other stroke gained metrics he can figure in the finish, his best is clearly good enough and he may well take that confidence booster from the Valspar into this week.

Despite the withdrawal of SS he is one of only a few players that has drifted with no support currently on betfair around $130 after opening on $95 late Australian time Monday night.

From the WM Phoenix Open-

• 54th x SG: OTT losing -0.452 strokes
• 60th x SG: APG losing -1.386 strokes
• 5th x SG: ARG @ +4.045 strokes gained
• 32nd x SG: Putting @ +1.487
• T28 x SG: Total @ +3.694
• T58 x Driving Accuracy @ 51.79% (29/56)
• 61st x Driving Distance @ 306.30 yds
• 18 x Longest Drive @ 372.00 yds
• T57 x GIR @ 65.28% (47/72)

The Canadian started well in 2026 making 5 for 7 cuts (71%) with good results at-

• T23 x PGA Cognizant Classic
• T34 x PGA AT&T Pebble Beach
• T28 x PGA WM Phoenix Open

Whether MH has decided to focus more on his overall game but I started noticing Hughes back @ the Procore in September after cooling off him due to form, he then went into missing 3 cuts in 3 of his next 4 before looking more focused in all of his 2026 events.

His Stroke's gained metrics have mostly all been in positive territory, so he has sparked the interest again and he has always turned up to play at the Memorial Course with proven results-

• 10th x 2025
• T14 x 2024
• T16 x 2023
• T29 x 2022
• T7 x 20221

If he can bring that form from the WM phoenix Open in early February through to the Cognizant form in early March he can feature on the final 36 holes as he has proven to us that whether he is hot or cold leading into this event he does turn up to play.

Currently around $160 on betfair without much support at this stage, you will most likely be matched for greater odds.

From the Valspar

• 2^nd x SG: OTT @ +4.172
• 49^th x SG: APG losing -0.116 strokes
• 54^th x SG: ARG losing -0.678 strokes
• 54^th x SG: PUT losing -0.164 strokes
• T30 x SG: Total +3.214 strokes gained
• T30 x Driving Accuracy @ 55.77% (29/52)
• 20^th x Driving Distance @ 309.40 yds
• T15 x Longest Drive @ 349.00 yds
• T52 x GIR @ 54.17% (39/72)

It is not just a matter of finding big hitters around here it will be players that can also take advantage of quicker greens and last week this Argentine player who is still searching for his 1^st victory.

He had to qualify through Q school back in December 2025 which is very tough.

He is an outsiders chance here, I prefer his fellow countryman Grillo more and the newcomer AJ Ewart but when I keep going back to a player I must include them as he was up & down last weekend and his stats were skewed by different metrics on different days, they did not all align each day.

As we have seen over the years any player is capable of winning when it all aligns, he has been in and out of our roster for some time. Around $210 he deserves to be +$300 but his SG: T2G was decent last week @ +3.36 strokes gained.

If you like to play in T20 & T40 markets he would be a better fit to cover the weekend play on him.

Valspar last week

• 9th x SG: OTT @ +2.704
• T20 x SG: APG +2.843
• 24th x SG: ARG @ +1.534
• 36th x SG: PUT @ +1.133
• T7 x SG: Total @ +8.214
• T30 x Driving Accuracy @ 55.77% (29/52)
• 60th x Driving Distance @ 292.20 yds
• T66 x Longest Drive @ 324.00 yds
• T16 x Greens in Regulation @ 61.11% (44/72)

Last week @ Valspar the course was not difficult yet so many players that should have absolutely figured just did not, Just on Jordy Spieth, honestly he can complain all he likes about being better once than Scott Scheffler but whilst he played some incredible recovery shots after finding the forest etc he also found the scrub more times than finding the fairways.

Unlike Grillo last week had the event been over another 9 holes he and Stephan Jaeger would have been fighting it out.

What I wrote down in my notes-

• 9th x Off the Tee overall but 14th on day 4
• 7th on Day 4 Putting with +2.48 strokes gained (Fitzy Won with +2.70 SG)
• 1st x SG: Total on day 4 picking up +5.703 strokes gained

He was really dialled in when day 4 arrived and after birdies on holes 1 & 2 it looked like he was going up the leaderboard with a bullet until the bogey on 3 stopped him quickly.

He composed with pars until hole 7 and went 3 x straight birdies (7, 8, 9) then another birdie on the 11th & 14th until the "SNAKE PIT" slowed him down but he was 1 of only a handful of players to play the stretch from 16th to 18th EVEN par.

He only has to carry that red hot form from Palm Harbour into Texas.

EG is a true grinder of the game and his overall SG:" Total stats deceiving, he is on the cusp of a breakout event & still recall when he withdrew from the PGA Bank of Utah back in October 2025 after only 1 round-

• 68 Rd x PGA Bank of Utah Championships 2025

Why I am referring to this event is EG played Round 1 in 68 from that round-

• +0.85 strokes gained OTT
• +2.10 strokes gained Putting
• +1.74 SG: Total

Other than Grillo losing -7.20 strokes at The Players Championships, his overall game is far better than his current price around $460 on betfair.

I like him much more than Tosti this week but another player you can easily have in T20 & T40 markets etc to cover the outlay on the outright win. I do agree with many other analysts that players under $100 are just incredibly short in the other markets to back.

He is far better than his odds would have us believe his current form is sometimes it is hard to understand why the market can be long on a player we like, over the years we do spot value and if you compare Tosti v Grillo it can be hard to accept why the latter is double the odds here.

It is not usually an event the player from Argentina focuses on but EG has already Won-

• 2 x PGA events (Frys Open in 2015 + Charles Schwab in 2023)

Go the bolter!

From the Valspar last week-

• 70th x SG: OTT losing -2.737 strokes
• 9th x SG: APG @ +4.175 strokes gained
• 22nd x SG: ARG @ +1.737
• 11th x SG: PUT @ +4.039
• T11 X SG: Total @ +7.214
• T60 x Driving Accuracy @ 46.15% (24/52)
• 46th x Driving Distance @ 298.80 yds
• T51 x Longest Drive @ 334.00 yds
• T16 x GIR @ 61.11% (44/72)

There has been a host of regular Korn Ferry tour players coming through and a few have already been competing up the top including Ricky Castillo winning his 1st PGA event @ Puerto Rico.

Unlike those KFT who finished T10 from 2025 who got 2026 PGA cards stamped a few like this Canadian came via the Q School back in December 2025.

There have been some notable results from this KFT bunch but no newcomers and this includes they very hyped KEEFER have been better than AJ EWART-

• T11 x PGA Valspar Championship
• T26 X PGA Puerto Rico Open
• T13 x PGA Cognizant Classic
• T28 x PGA WM Phoenix Open
• T49 x PGA Farmers Insurance
• T44 x PGA The American Express

In all PGA events in 2026-

• 6 from 8 CUTS made
• 2 x T25 in 2026

Even just playing AJ in making cut markets would net you profit @ 75% strike rate as he goes around most events at monster odds, just like he has again this week.

My own personal notes-

• 25 of 28 rounds played in 2026 ALL under PAR
• 65th in current FedEx points

Even 6 of his last 7 events he has +strokes gained total and whatever he has changed in his skill set it is working, he obviously enjoys his golf and big watches on both he and fellow countryman Sudarshan Yellamaraju who has already made a splash recently @ The Players (T5).

Whilst Sudarshan sits very high in all SG metrics amongst all PGA players in 2026 he also 1/5 the price, I like what I am seeing from AJ @ around $480 on betfair he is playing out of his skin lately and shows no signs of slowing down whilst travelling on the hectic PGA tour.

No current support on betfair as he opened around $320 days ago so try for +$550 and higher.

I have left room for a possible LATE MAIL as both he Hojgaard twins will be suited, I just need to see how they go early along with Clark, Coody & Theegala, all players previous tipped and should be suited to the course.

It's a watch and see presently.