| Russell Henley |
Win |
12.5/1(+1250) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The Stig & MJ get to use our brand-new revised database for the PGA season.
- 6th x SG: T2G
- 93rd x SG: OTT
- 13th x SG: APG
- 7th x SG: ARG
- 47th x SG: PUT
- 70.6% GIR
- 68.68 Driving Accuracy
- 89.5% makes cut in 2025
- 68.4 finishes in Top 25 in 2025
- 69.32 stroke avg
- 5 x PGA wins
RH has always been known for his ball striking and we did select him a few times in 2025 without him winning he did provide ample returns for his Top 5 & 10 results.
His current win price around $12.5 we consider short but despite his short price he has recent good course form.
|
| Hideki Matsuyama |
Win |
22/1(+2200) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 22nd x SG: T2G
- 139th x SG: OTT
- 19th x SG: APG
- 5th x SG: ARG
- 110th x SG: PUT
- 65.7% GIR
- BTA (below tour avg) in driving accuracy
- 86.9% made cuts in 2025
- 52.2% Top 25s in 2025
- 69.85 stroke avg
- 11 x PGA wins
A winner on this course in 2022 he proved his putting stats wrong from 2025 that he can run hot with his putter, HM did also win @ Maui the 2025 Sentry so he obviously likes playing in Hawaii, HM was the recent Hero challenge winner with a strong -22.
At his current betfair price of $22 he is the better in form vale than Russell Henley.
|
| J.J. Spaun |
Win |
22/1(+2200) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 8th in SG: T2G
- 41st in SG: OTT
- 5th in SG: APG
- 86th in SG: ARG
- 72nd in SG: PUT
- 69.57% GIR
- 62.05% Driving Accuracy
- 84% made cuts in 2025
- 56% Top 25 in 2025
- 69.48 stroke avg
- 2 PGA Wins
If you have been watching the golf through 2025 then you now know his name, he had a breakout year winning the US Open & kept the form rolling into the back end of 2025 with multiple placings & his latest a 4th @ Hero challenge to Hideki.
His current odds fair around $22 on betfair.
|
| Ben Griffin |
Win |
25/1(+2500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 19th in SG: T2G
- 58 in SG: OTT
- 22nd in SG: APG
- 45th in SG: ARG
- 19th in SG: PUT
- 69.66% GIR
- BTA- driving accuracy below tour avg
- 80% made cuts in 2025
- 56.6 Top 25 in 2025
- 69.17 stroke avg
- 3 x PGA Wins
Benny or as we like to call him Griff is another who had a breakout year in 2025. In his last 15 events Griff has 14 in positive strokes gained total. He can stalk the leaders over 4 days. His current price of $25 is very fair considering the company he is in.
|
| Keegan Bradley |
Win |
34/1(+3400) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 9th in SG: T2G
- 32nd in SG: OTT
- 39th in SG: APG
- 8th in SG: ARG
- 114th in SG: PUT
- 66.04% GIR
- 61.39% DA
- 90.5& made cuts in 2025
- 52.4% Top 25 in 2025
- 69.91 stroke avg
- 8 PGA Wins
KB has been super consistent in 2025 & I have watched him closely over in the TGL series and his game looks like it is in sync. He has proven he is a better putter than his current ranking of 114th and he showed this more recently @ Hero challenge with his strong closing 13th.
At the time of summary, he was $28 now available is $34, he could possibly drift to $40. He is always thereabouts but his TGL form is good leading into Hawaii.
|
| Nico Echavarria |
Win |
55/1(+5500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 146th in SG: T2G
- 121st in SG: OTT
- 86th in SG: APG
- 170th in SG: ARG
- 5th in SG: PUT
- 67.23% GIR
- 64.49% driving accuracy
- 70.4% made cuts in 2025
- 33.3 Top 25 in 2025
- 69.8 stroke avg
- 2 PGA Wins
This young Colombian has long been a reliable staple for us @ PGT simply because he is one of the better putters on tour. He lost in a playoff to saint Nick last year at this event so brings valuable course intel back in 2026.
At the current price around $55 on betfair that is very fair and we see it as value as he should be more realistically priced around $40 just on his skill with his putter alone.
|
| Harry Hall |
Win |
70/1(+7000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 64th in SG: T2G
- 122 in SG: OTT
- 107th in SG: APG
- 10th in SG: ARG
- 3rd in SG: PUT
- 01% GIR
- BTA- driving accuracy below tour avg
- 88% made cuts in 2025
- 60% Top 25 in 2025
- 84 stroke avg
- 1 PGA Win
Another slick putter on tour this Englishman makes up +2 strokes per day on average on the field in any event. His stroke avg in 2025 was 2nd with a very low 68.84 & only bettered by Scott Scheffler with 67.99 and he won 6 x PGA events in 2025.
As his driving accuracy is only fair if he can concentrate on finding most fairways his game from approaching to the greens in Hawaii to converting more putts for birdies can see him challenge late. His current price at the time of summary is around $70 is acceptable, he did open around the $55 but as more money is coming into the exchange I would expect him to float between the $55 to $70.
|
| Kurt Kitayama |
Win |
70/1(+7000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 7th in SG: T2G
- 12th in SG: OTT
- 32nd in SG: APG
- 39th in SG: ARG
- 148 in SG: PUT
- 79% GIR
- BTA- driving accuracy below tour avg
- 6% made cuts in 2025
- 3% Top 25 in 2025
- 27 stroke avg
- 2 PGA Wins
KK can often be hit or miss but he sits a very high 7th in Tee to Green play & he is our 2nd highest player just behind Henley in our selections. His only softer skillset is with his putter but he showed when he won PGA 3M Open in late July that he can be in positives strokes gained with his putter, all 4 days, he was positive. His overall SG was +3.32 each day so the goal here for our players is a consistent -4 (66) as the course is a par 70 to be competitive.
He deserves to be around $70 to win on betfair as he really has improved in 4 of 5 strokes gained metrics throughout 2025, could he be the next JJ Spaun?
|
| Billy Horschel |
Win |
110/1(+11000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 55th in SG: T2G
- 45th in SG: OTT
- 40th in SG: APG
- 40th in SG: ARG
- 45th in SG: PUT
- 82% GIR
- 65 DA
- 3% made cuts in 2025
- 7% Top 25 in 2025
- 0 stroke avg
- 8 x PGA Wins
He is our VALUE play this weekend and if he brings his current hot form putting from recent TGL games then he can put win #9 away. After his hip surgery in 2025 I was discussing with The Stig he could be the player to watch in 2026 now fit.
We have watched endless interviews from November & December 2025 and as we tune into TGL games his fitness obviously has him feeling stronger both physically & mentally. I was shocked to see he did not make the PGA Top 15 in their analysis & even more shocked he was $75 & has drifted to $110, that has us excited as he is tremendous value.
The very undulating hills @ Waialae Country Club will test his hip out.
|
| Webb Simpson |
Win |
170/1(+17000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
As this veteran of the PGA tour does not play enough normal games in 2025 we have based his stats from this event in 2025.
- SG: T2G +1.20 per day
- SG: OTT minus -0.35 strokes lost
- SG: APG +0.24 per day
- SG: ARG +1.30 per day
- SG: PUT +0.23
- GIR 69.7%
- DA 65%
- Stroke avg 67.25 at this event only in 2025.
- 5 x PGA Wins
1 of those to his credit was a Major, the 2012 US Open.
WS did finish T16 here in 2025 with a handy -11. He only had 1 negative metric from our measured 5 so he still hit a high 4/5 & that -0.35 strokes Off the Tee lost could have easily been a positive. He along with Keita Nakajima are our outsiders who on the very best day could upset. WS current price of $170 has fluctuated often since markets opened on betfair very late on Monday, I have seen +$230 at times so be mindful to try & get matched around $250.
|
| Keita Nakajima |
Win |
230/1(+23000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 65th in SG: T2G
- 50th in SG: OTT
- 50th in SG: APG
- 50th in SG: ARG
- 50th in SG: PUT
- 70% GIR
- 61.5% DA
- 65% made cuts in 2025
- 45% Top 25 in 2025
- 70 stroke avg
- 0 PGA Wins
- 1 DPWT Win
- 4 Wins on Japan tour
We have made adjusted stats for this PGA event as most of his data is from the DPWT & personally the new database is weighted much heavier/stronger for PGA players.
We saw recently with Ryan Gerard dominating at the recent DPWT event in Mauritius that PGA form is far superior, this also coincides with fact that many DP World tour players cannot win on the PGA tour.
We have long been smitten with this surging Japanese player & have a lot of analysis on him through other DPWT events in both 2024 & 2025, the Win came @ the Indian Open in 2024 but also solidifying 2025 he finished 2nd on 3 occasions & he was the #1 Amateur in the World for the longest time of 87 weeks eclipsing the previous record held by none other than Jon Rahm who has won over 20 events world wide in his career including 2 Majors.
He has now secured his PGA card for 2026 so expect his stock to rise considerably. He is very familiar with playing courses at home in Japan that resemble Hawaii.
His current price at the time of analysis is changing on betfair as he was $230, we saw $250 & as low as $170. I would suggest trying to be matched to win outright between +$230 to $250.
|
| Ryan Gerard |
Win (Late Mail)
|
22/1(+2200) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
With many players struggling on day 2 I am sure tomorrow with the traditional "moving" day 3 will see some players surge. Many of the leaders cold not capitalize and we had a few players ourselves that just made the cut into the final 36 holes .
Fortunately 8 of our 11 main selections (73%) scraped it through, it is very possible the main selections can still get it down especially if the current leaders sit down (like today).
The first of 2 late mails the American Ryan Gerard, went over to Mauritius and equalled 1st with the very inform Jayden Schaper who both had a good -22 before Gerard lost in a playoff. it would have been the boost the American needed and at the half way point of this event in Hawaii RG is-
- 1st x SG: T2G with +5.42 strokes gained total
- 1st x SG: APG with +3.82 strokes gained-
- All positives in other Strokes gained metrics with +0.67 in putting
The SG: T2G total strokes is made up of the other SG metrics which are around the green, off the tee & the above mentioned, they all add up to the total T2G.
- Over in Mauritius Gerard was also-
- 1st x SG: APG with +2.95 strokes gained per round
- 1st x Birdies per round with 6.25
- 1st x Bogeys per round with only 1.25
- 5th in SG: T2G
- 14th x GIR @ 70.83%
Not much has changed from Mauritius to Hawaii and if we look really close his greens in regulation is a high 80.56% so he only needs to keep hitting the green in the same fashion he has done in the most recent & present events.
I am not too fazed by his putting overall stats as they are based on the whole of the 2025 season, he was 3rd overall in SG: PUT in Mauritius & he just needs to hold his own for the next 36 holes. There are some very good players who pick up +2 strokes on avg against this field, they however are not playing as well as RG is on approach.
Just as I type this up I see Tommy has now gone 5 x birdies over in Dubai from his last 7 holes. over in the PGA event there are about 10 players capable of putting some runs on the board and are close enough, the late mails are insurance as I still like Ben Griffin, Harry Hall & Kurt Kitayama, it is all dependant on who pushes on moving day.
There was plenty of $26 for RG earlier so perhaps wait a bit as he drifted from $19 even as I typed this.
|
| Si Woo Kim |
Win (Late Mail)
|
40/1(+4000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
SWK is no stranger to The Stig or MJ as we were riding him home @ the recent Crown Australian Open where I thought he had his chance to win, call it a lapse in concentration late he did however look incredibly like his former self with middles days of 66 & 65 & finished the overall with -13 only 2 shots off winner, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen.
At Royal Melbourne Golf Club he sat in the Top 10 in all Strokes gained metrics, also now after Australia has made-
- 8 straight Cuts
- from the 8 events 3 x Top 5 results (3rd, T4 & T5) +4 Top 25s (T14, T19, T20 & T21)
- 7 of the 8 were in stronger PGA events than this IMO
In Honolulu he has all positive strokes gained in all metrics, the best being-
- 4th x SG: Total with +4.09 strokes gained overall
- 8th x SG: T2G with +2.55 strokes gained
- 8th x SG: OTT with +1.40 strokes gained Off the Tee (unlike Gerard he shines on APG)
- 27th x SG: PUT with +1.54 strokes gained, worth mentioning as he was -2.04 strokes lost on day 1
I think SWK is a noted grinder on moving day and as such he should be able to at least hit double figures on the leader board come day 3 and set himself up with a chance like he did in Australia on the final day.
Currently $40 on betfair but you could try and get matched for between $44 to $50.
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