| Hideki Matsuyama |
Win |
32/1(+3200) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
We selected HM for the 3M Open last week & this is what we sent out-
2026 PGA stats
- 44th x SG: Total
- 35th x SG: T2G
- 125th x SG: OTT
- 85th x Driving Accuracy @ 59.03%
- 34th x SG: APG
- 122nd x Greens in Regulation @ 64.54%
- 17th x SG: ARG
- 81st x SG: PUT
- 17/17 Cuts made in 2026 for 100%
HM went close when beaten in a playoff by Chris Gotterup @ PGA WM Phoenix Open and since that loss has gone on to make the cut in all 14 events since & has finished in the T20 in 5 of those with multiple T40 in other events.
Why we like HM this week is if we rule out Scottie Scheffler the field is wide open and in his last 2 events, we have seen his usually unpredictability off the tee improve and he now is 100% in all strokes gained metrics in his last 2 events, his sample over his last-
Last 6 events
- 3/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 5/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 6/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 5/6 x SG: Putting
After opening around $30 HM has now found strong support @ $34 on betfair, we are happy to select HM in the outright markets leaving Scheffler in.
**Rocket Classic
Hideki is one of those players on tour that can simply amaze you with some of the best shots seen to totally the reverse and question “what was that”.
With rounds of 70, 65, 65, 64 for (-20) with a day 4 -7 being his best day @ 3M open last week it’s rare when you can say carding a 70 was the cause for his defeat but a closer look at how well he did play suggests he can be in the finish again this week-
3M Open stats
- T11 x SG: OTT @ +3.084
- T3 x Driving Accuracy @ 80.36% (45/56)
- 62nd x SG: APG losing -2.634 strokes
- T40 x Greens in Regulation @ 72.22% (52/72)
- 1st x SG: ARG @ +8.170
- 17th x SG: PUT @ +3.412
- T3 x SG: Total @ +12.031
Normally I would be concerned with being 62nd at one sole event in approach but he had the softest touch around the greens & his scrambling on point, 3rd in Scrambling @ 85.00% (17/20).
This is a reasonably flat course, and we witnessed how wayward HM can be off the tee at various events leading into this, I d prefer him to find fairways plus his lost shots with his wedge & iron play did come on day 1 mainly losing -2.477.
We will take that as a win overall as his other aspects of his game were very good & he does normally play well on approach!
After opening around $36 on betfair late Monday nigh (AEST) he has found strong support which makes sense for this & we only have the Rocket, Wyndham, St Jude into the BMW before the grand final, TOUR Championships that will finalise this PGA season.
In form players usually & do win the BIG one at the end.
|
| Ben Griffin |
Win |
38/1(+3800) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
2026 PGA stats
- 32nd x SG: Total
- 67th x SG: T2G
- 97th x SG: OTT
- 54th x Driving Accuracy @ 61.48%
- 117th x SG: APG
- 82nd x Greens in Regulation @ 66.67%
- 5th x SG: ARG
- 20 x SG: PUT
- 17/21 Cuts made in 2026 for 80.9%
Benny & the jets can be a hard player to catch, BG only pops into our calculations from time to time so he really needs to be near his best for us to entertain his playing style. We did our usual comparison and the player we compared him to is Xander Schauffele but Xander as we know from previously selecting him & recently to has now lost strokes in putting in 7 of his last 9 events.
BG has been very consistent & his -
Last 6 events
- 4/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 6/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 6/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 3/6 x SG: Putting
The putting stats are better than his last 6 events though as he has +SG: PUT in 18 of his last 25 starts and does sit a high 20th in putting amongst all PGA Tour players.
If we are to be critical his only blemish was @ the PGA Memorial in early June where he shot a 74 (+2) on day 1 followed by a 77 (+5) on day 2 to be CUT, we consider this an off weekend considering he has made 80% of cuts in 2026.
To compare how & what happened on that weekend consider Rickie Fowler who was +17 for the 36 holes, crazy right? Fowler has since finished T38, T15 & T18, so players can juts have off weekends, it is when they do this for 3 to 4 events is the worry.
Now back on home soil we expect BG to continue his previously good form & we like him much more than we do for the bigger events coming in the next few weeks. After opening around $32 on betfair when markets opened in Australia there is plenty of +$36 on offer now and I would suggest trying to get matched closer to $40.
BG is the type of player you want to see start well, it is then he manages his game better.
Betfair odds updated as of 29/7 @ 12pm.
|
| Akshay Bhatia |
Win |
46/1(+4600) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
We are big fans of AB but when we have selected him thus far in 2026, he can put in some ordinary performances, there is plenty of in-depth analysis on the website, we are fans and he can putt but it can be his errant off the tee play that makes it hard for him to compete, if his driving accuracy is off then his 2nd shot hurts his approach game & so on.
We want to see AB find fairways!
2026 PGA stats
- 11th x SG: Total
- 48th x SG: T2G
- 121st x SG: OTT
- 104th x Driving Accuracy @ 58.10%
- 43rd x SG: APG
- 107th x Greens in Regulation @ 65.30%
- 26th x SG: ARG
- 1st x SG: PUT
- 11/17 Cuts made in 2026 for 64.7%
As you can see AB is numero uno in putting and since he introduced his “Broomstick” putter he has never looked back but if he could manage his drives even 25% better off the tee, he would be one of the best currently on tour.
Last 6 events
- 2/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 3/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 4/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 4/6 x SG: Putting
His overall stats do improve considerably with 17/25 in +SG: APG & 17/25 in +SG: ARG & of course his putting is his weapon & in +SG: PUT in 13/15.
We have also highlighted how he can suddenly improve his driving accuracy, around this week’s course @ Detroit he will get his chance as it will be one of the easiest courses in the next 5 weeks to find fairways.
The Detroit GC is often referred to as a “bomber & gauge” but it also can lend itself to players who are far better putters who can improve overall tee to green play by sinking more birdies.
AB is another player we prefer this weekend then say the TOUR Championship & after opening around $36 on betfair he drifted to as much as $48 before finding his current price of $46 which his fair price is around $40.
All eyes will be on where he lands in the fairway, he improves here then he can shoot up the leaderboard early, his relatively new caddy Joe Greiner (started 2026 together) really has grounded the often-nervous Bhatia.
|
| Ryan Gerard |
Win |
46/1(+4600) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
We at PGT are big fans of the “SNIPER” & despite only 1 x PGA win he will deliver a 2nd PGA event very soon. After very close efforts @ PGA SONY in Hawaii (2nd) followed by another 2nd @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach he then went awfully close again when 2nd @ PGA Memorial.
3 x 2nds in 2026 & normally a player we could select between $70 to $110 can no longer be such value. This course really should suit him down to the ground.
2026 PGA stats
- 26th x SG: Total
- 41st x SG: T2G
- 54th x SG: OTT
- 34th x Driving Accuracy @ 63.30%
- 20th x SG: APG
- 64th x Greens in Regulation @ 67.12%
- 128th x SG: ARG
- 32nd x SG: PUT
- 18/21 Cuts made in 2026 for 85.7%
We have watched many hours of interviews with RG and although intense when he talks “golf” he makes sense, he is very in touch with his own development, and you can see he can be in the T50 on PGA tour in the coming seasons.
After consistent efforts and now owning an 85% making cuts it really showcases where his overall game has developed to, currently ranked @ 18th in FedEx Cup points he has secured his spot @ the FedEX playoffs (T70) & very likely to play @ BMW Championships then into the TOUR Championships (T50) So RG should play very relaxed over the coming weeks.
Last 6 events
- 5/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 3/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 4/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 6/6 x SG: Putting
After starting the first half of 2026 with better APG stats compared to ARG stats that has reversed and his ARG stats are now much better, to be fair though in his last 25 starts RG has been in +SG: APG in 19/25, even in his last 12 events RG may have 8/12 in +strokes gained he has only missed by less than 0.40 stroke in 3 of the 4 events.
His last 4 starts he has also been 100% in both around the green & putting in strokes gained categories, his game is looking right on song coming into this weekend.
We will happily accept his current $46 on betfair after opening around $42 there is between $50 to $55 in the queue, but I doubt we will get more than $50, RG is on every radar now so the once $70-$110 is in the past now.
The Sniper is one of our more preferred plays this weekend.
|
| Nicolai Hojgaard |
Win |
55/1(+5500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
NH is the better player IMO of the “twins” on USA soil, no doubt his brother Rasmus will win at some point on the PGA tour but more likely in 2027.
2026 PGA stats
- 19th x SG: Total
- 18th x SG: T2G
- 43rd x SG: OTT
- 147th x Driving Accuracy @ 52.57%
- 25th x SG: APG
- 93rd x Greens in Regulation @ 66.04%
- 43rd x SG: ARG
- 68th x SG: PUT
- 13/18 Cuts made in 2026 for 72.2%
Normally when a player is cut especially in 4 of his last 6 events, we would not even consider them for many months but in 2 of those 3 cut events this Danish star lost his usually strong wedge & iron play, all in June.
We saw enough when he resulted as T14 @ PGA Travelers then into a T26 @ Gensis Scottish Open to reconsider him here because he can hit the ball long, 5th in driving distance and this is a very flat course compared to other courses & with his usual wedge & iron play strong he cans et up that 2nd shot onto the greens, now this is where he will need to perform.
His putting can be hit or miss.
Last 6 events
- 3/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 3/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 3/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 2/6 x SG: Putting
At first glance his last 6 events give pause for concern but his overall play prior to the last 6 have been better with +60% in all strokes gained metrics.
We noted when previously selected how strong he has been on PGA tour in 2026 with-
- T2 X PGA Truist Championships
- 2nd x PGA Texas Children’s Open
- T6 x PGA Cognizant Beach Classic
- T3 X PGA WM Phoenix Open
Both the Truist & WM Phoenix Open have been IMO very good form franking events since & now we have seen a return to confidence in 2 of his last 3 events we expect this Dane to be in the thick of it this weekend.
We need to see a smiling Nicolai, he reacts very much like Ludvig that when their game is flowing freely, they smile and joke, when they start looking very seriously and very fidgety on the tee box it never ends well.
We also want to see Nicolai sink some birdie putts or even an eagle, the markets have not missed him which does surprise us a bit as he has on paper missed 4 of his last 6 cuts & on betfair he is around $55 after opening around $45 on Monday night.
Try and get matched between $60 to $70 which is a fair price as I expect him to eventually drift on the day of tee off, only a suggestion but we know how good he can be, he just needs to put it all together, another player who IMO cannot win a BMW or TOUR Championship but can here.
|
| Rickie Fowler |
Win |
65/1(+6500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Yes, we have not given up on Rickie yet seeing his last 2 events were good results & he has decided to turn up after making 3 straight cuts.
The trust cycle has returned.
2026 PGA stats
- 46th x SG: Total
- 70th x SG: T2G
- 49th x SG: OTT
- 36 x Driving Accuracy @ 63.16%
- 78th x SG: APG
- 49th x Greens in Regulation @ 68.10%
- 102 x SG: ARG
- 40th x SG: PUT
- 13/18 Cuts made in 2026 for 72.2%
An area in which RF has improved in his last 7 starts is-
- 35th x Proximity to hole
- 6th x Approaches from >275 yards
So now he has come back from his recent wilderness hike with results back-to-back-
- T18 x The OPEN Championship
- T15 x PGA John Deere Classic
In the 3 cuts we saw in his last 6 events the one strokes gained metric that was telling was his putting, he has lost strokes in putting in 5 events straight from the PGA Championships in the middle of May right through to the PGA Travelers at the end of June (6 weeks of NO strokes gained putting) which is scary considering he was 13/16 prior in +SG: PUT.
That would have been a near 100% instead of 80% as he lost a mere -0.03 strokes @ FedEx St Jude this time last year & a mere -0.15 strokes in putting @ the Amex.
It was his go to, the foundation of his game so now he has proven to us @ PGT his mojo is back & a quick peek into his stats confirms what we are seeing as well-
Last 4 events
- 4/4 x SG: Off the tee
- 4/4 x SG: Approach the greens
- 3/4 x SG: Around the greens
- 2/4 x SG: Putting
Normally the guide is 6 events, but he was as we say in the wilderness, and I am happy to say he is trending in the right direction until proven otherwise.
After he had his chance when selected back @ PGA Truist when T2 with Nicolai, I say “had his chance” as he led with 7 holes to go but we liked him leading into that event and his last 2 events are trending very similar.
John Deer Classic
- 15th x SG: OTT @ +2.224
- 31st x SG: APG @ +2.318
- T15 x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (56/72)
- 21st x SG: ARG @ +1.439
- 45th x SG: PUT @ +0.928
- T15 x SG: Total @ +6.910
RF looked the goods with his 63 (-8) on day 3 but could not repeat anything similar when it matters on day 4 and could only muster a 68 (-3) where you had to be at least a 64 to even be considered, thankfully Chris Gotterup flew the flag for us @ $85 coming from 9 shots off.
We know the game of Ricky & now he has achieved 90% in his strokes gained metrics (we measure) in his last 2 events we will be cheering him here & after opening around $50 on betfair with not much support he has now slowly drifted to $60, I can see on betfair there is a chance to be matched closer to $75 hopefully come tee off time, try for much more then scale back as worst case scenario there is plenty @ $60 available but again always try for more.
RF is a player that when his game is on he can match with the top 10 in OWGR, this back stretch is where he needs to perform.
|
| Jacob Bridgeman |
Win |
80/1(+8000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
After his first win on PGA tour @ the very difficult Riviera GC (poa annua greens) were seriously wrong back in the back end of February this year it looked like after the very first win he had become a serious challenger to the top tier ranked players.
From the MASTERS onwards in mid-April his normally very reliable +1.80 strokes gained in putting on avg per day (an impressive +7.20 strokes each event) that’s on average had deserted his game.
In 4 of his next 6 events, we saw a negative in his putting which is odd seeing such a talented putter lose strokes in 66.6% of those events, it’s near diabolical really.
It was not until recently we trusted his putting game had finally returned, proof is now historic as JB has recorded +strokes gained in-
- 4 of his last 5 events +SG: PUT
2026 PGA stats
- 17th x SG: Total
- 68th x SG: T2G
- 71st x SG: OTT
- 44th x Driving Accuracy @ 62.01%
- 42nd x SG: APG
- 71st x Greens in Regulation @ 66.89%
- 122nd x SG: ARG
- 3rd x SG: PUT
- 18/19 Cuts made in 2026 for 94.7%
JB has however been incredibly consistent in making cuts which you need to, so you see the final 36 holes in any contest. It is still impressive to be near 100%.
Last 6 events
- 4/6 x SG: Off the tee
- 6/6 x SG: Approach the greens
- 3/6 x SG: Around the greens
- 4/6 x SG: Putting
The last 6 events or 4 can be seen as a smaller window into current strokes gained metrics a quick glance to see whether a player has changed in what we can see for the last 7 months, because we have our forever changing database, we still have baselines for players which of course can change.
If the best version of JB turns up he proved he can hold off the worlds best (Rory & company) & most players can play far better away from all the media attention, I see last week’s winner Jackson Koivun is the 2nd fav this week, which is ludicrous, sure he won well but to be fair last weeks course is entirely different than this week and even the tougher courses are coming up over 4 weeks. There is a reason the next month sees “CHAMPIONSHIP” courses come into effect.
Either way congratulations to the 21yr old but there have been players as highly touted as he is to be stuck on 1 sole PGA win after 2 years of fulltime competition, it’s a tough sport.
Back to JB, after opening around $55 on betfair there is no rush to even get matched @ $70, I suggest try getting matched for well beyond $80 to $90 as JB has no interest on betfair at the time of summary.
- JB is 8th on birdie average @ 4.28 (317 birdies from 74 rounds)
That figure is skewed a touch due to his poor run when totally out of form, this could be a birdie fest early so hopefully JB continues his most current form line.
Good value for the weekend.
$80 on betfair updated as of 29/7 @ 12pm.
NOTE: Brooks Koepka withdrew so we lose one player.
|
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen |
Win |
130/1(+13000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Every event we usually throw in a speculator, meaning that if everything went like we think it could he would be there at odds & surprise a few but not us as after all he is good enough to make our 130-player database.
The Dane won his first DP event in Australia back in late December @ Crown Australian Open @ Royal Melbourne on the infamous sandbelt, anyone who watches golf will tell you it is one very difficult course to score on.
RNP defeated starts such as Cam Smith, SWK, Adam Scott, MWL, Rory & recent Major winner, Ryan Fox, so he beat a very good field.
What he has done since is remarkable-
2026 PGA stats
- 55th x SG: Total
- 72nd x SG: T2G
- 18th x SG: OTT
- 51st x Driving Accuracy @ 61.66%
- 108th x SG: APG
- 73rd x Greens in Regulation @ 66.87%
- 138th x SG: ARG
- 45th x SG: PUT
- 13/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 81.25%
I used the word, remarkable, it is how he has managed to make over 80% of cuts but he finds himself ranked 90th in FedEx points so outside of the T70 bubble that players need to be under to play in the BMW, it is worth $20 Million and if you finished well in that you would advance to the T50 for the end of TOUR Championships, that is the prize.
This Dane is a bolters chance, but we like him here for this weekend only, his driving off the tee should be able to set him up for the all-important 2nd shot, whilst his overall approach stats do not inspire confidence he has however been in +SG” APG in 50% of his last 25 events, of course there are highs and lows but on average he is 50% a okay.
It is the Danes putting that has kept him in the mix-
- T20 @ PGA 3M Open Championships
- T9 x The OPEN Championships
Not only are they back-to-back good results but they are also proof he has made 8 straight cuts & we like consistency.
3M Open
- 1st x SG: OTT @ +5.612
- T3 x Driving Accuracy @ 80.36% (45/56)
- 52nd x SG: APG losing -0.537 strokes
- T18 x Greens in Regulation @ 77.78% (56/72)
- 9th x SG: ARG @ +3.116
- 52nd x SG: PUT losing -2.159 strokes
- T20 x SG: Total @ +6.031
Although losing -2.159 strokes over 4 days he had most of that come on day 2 when he was ranked in 139th losing -2.788 strokes.
That was his worst day a 72 (+1) which saw 3 bogeys which was 50% of his total 6 bogeys all on day 2, I liked how he corrected what he could and other than day 2 he shot 3 days identical in 66, 66, 66.
The other Dane, we will call him was also a strong T11 in scrambling @ 75% (12/16) and that matters, He is good off the tee and good putting, if he can minimise any losses from his wedge & irons he can feature in the finish.
He is out specky & after opening around $75 on betfair there was plenty of $110 to $130 on betfair now at the time of summary, despite PGT following him, I wonder whether other analysts are picking him as I have not had time to catch up, not that we pay attention, it’s the opposite as we prefer others not to pick similar players.
We are shooting for 12 outright winners, Let us hope out 4 x T10s from last week convert to a winner this week.
|
| Nico Echavarria |
Win |
230/1(+23000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The Colombian along with our last pick could well be very under valued this weekend and 2 are playing better golf than at first glance.
Nico is no stranger to us, and I cannot recall him ever leaving the T100 players in the past 5 years, he has won 3 PGA events, and we have been lucky to have found him all at the right time.
2026 PGA stats
- 126th x SG: Total
- 130th x SG: T2G
- 124th x SG: OTT
- 69th x Driving Accuracy @ 60.84%
- 87th x SG: APG
- 136th x Greens in Regulation @ 63.60%
- 139th x SG: ARG
- 81st x SG: PUT
- 13/20 Cuts made in 2026 for 65%
For those that have been with us for a while we noted way back @ the PGA Cognizant that he was one of the game’s elite putters-
PGA Cognizant
- 146th in SG: T2G
- 121st in SG: OTT
- 86th in SG: APG
- 170th in SG: ARG
- 5th in SG: PUT
- 23% GIR
- 49% DA
Now obviously Nico is only ranked @ 81st for putting overall but the Cognizant was only back in the first weekend of March, of interest & importance since Nico has had-
- 11/14 in positive strokes gained in putting
Meaning he still is putting well; he is not making up the losses in other metrics but if he is still in +SG: PUT in 78% of his next 14 events then he has our attention.
As Nico is on our roster of players I thought he was better than okay @ PGA Travelers he then carried that into the Genesis Scottish Open and backed it all up with a tidy effort @ The OPEN Championships.
He is a player that is also better than 50% in +SG metrics in all 4 we measure, it would not take much to be in the thick of it all this weekend, first step stay in touch, 2nd step make Cut and third step sink some birdie opportunities, I watched his putting last few weeks and gee he hit some really good putts, he missed a few close ones but they were from +20 feet so would have made a big difference.
A usually safe & reliable putter in which if he can continue his putting form then the $200 on betfair now could be a steal. We like both Nico and the next player as they represent value to us.
There has been zero interest on betfair, try and get matched for +$500 and work your way back if unmatched.
$230 @ betfair updated 29/7 @ 12pm.
**Confirming Brooks has withdrawn so our players are now down to 10 for the event & 6.9% of the field only.
|
| Matt McCarty |
Win |
260/1(+26000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Perhaps many are forgetting that this Arizonia resident carded a 63 @ Amex, a 61 @ Zurich, a 63 @ Truist, a 64 @ Charles Schwab, a 63 @ Travelers, he can shoot low and despite not backing a single day low round up he still has-
- T2 @ PGA American Express with -23
- T12 @ PGA RBC Heritage
- T10 @ PGA Zurich New Orleans
- T9 @ PGA Cadillac Championships
- T10 @ PGA Truist
That little run was impressive and overall, he sits very comfortably in 45th on FedEx points so right now he is in the BMW Championship and right now the TOUR championship.
That would be a great achievement.
2026 PGA stats
- 111th x SG: Total
- 122nd x SG: T2G
- 117th x SG: OTT
- 53rd x Driving Accuracy @ 61.60%
- 83rd x SG: APG
- 137th x Greens in Regulation @ 63.56%
- 132nd x SG: ARG
- 49th x SG: PUT
- 14/22 Cuts made in 2026 for 63.6%
He may sit in 49th in putting for 2026 but again a closer inspection of each week in each week out shows us he is still in +SG: PUT in 19 of his last 25 events.
Another player that has us interested as he is better than +50% in all his other strokes gained metrics. If you follow the golf like we do he has led a few events and sure that has been on day 1 or 2 but he can start quickly and has shot low rounds in 5 events just in 2026.
Now it’s a matter of if he can link up a few days of solid more consistent golf, he has been good so far with 8 x T25s overall which includes 4 x T10s, he can shoot birdies so let’s hope he goes on a run. After opening around a very enticing $260 on betfair I have seen as much as $350 on offer and as low as $240, there is $460 to $500 as I now type trying to get matched on betfair.
Again, always try for more and we will show members when we go live on our youtube channel how you can get matched on betfair, remember smaller increments when odds are so large.
Of course, at these odds he is our roughie but as highlighted he is far better than that phrasing.
**Confirming Brooks has withdrawn so our players are now down to 10 for the event & 6.9% of the field only. That gives us plenty of room for a late mail if required.
|
| Keegan Bradley |
Win (Late Mail)
|
55/1(+5500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Rocket Classic
- 57 x SG: Off the Tee @ losing -0.216 strokes
- T60 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (16/28)
- 1st x SG: Approach to Green @ +7.512
- T4 x Greens in Regulation @ 83.33% (30/36)
- 43rd x SG: Around the Green @ +0.192
- 68th x SG: Putting losing -2.099 strokes
- T14 x SG: Total @ +5.389
KB is no stranger to PGT but after watching everyone from last night into the morning hours of day 2, he was one of only a handful of players that looked interested in making it into day 3.
- 2nd x Day 1 in SG: APG
- 1st x Day 2 in SG: APG (see above for overall)
Around a course which has in the players own words “made it much tougher” after recent renovations it is still a simple course to-
- Keep it on the fairways
- Approach to the Green- hole proximity from wedge & iron shots
- Putting- converting birdies
Honestly not a difficult formula but KB was on day 1 driving it off the tee to find only 50% of fairways 7/14 (example Akshay Bhatia only found 40%) but that improved to 64.29% (9/14) on day 2 with the optimal goal IMO is 70%, so KB is close and usually on the PGA tour he is @ 60% so far in 2026 so I expect he can thrive with his 2nd & 3rd shot as long as he can maintain finding the fairways 60-70% of drives.
The saving grace has been his approach shots and although currently over 36 holes to date has lost -2.099 shots with his putter, his birdies on 17 & 18 were determined putts & surely will make his dinner taste better ending with -2 on the 2 holes as they were generally very tough to birdie both.
His only misses (bogeys) were-
- Hole 1, Par 4- missed the putt to save par by 6 inches
- Hole 5, Par 3- missed the putt by 5 inches as it rolled over the right side
- Hole 13, par 4- worst hole as he found native area 300 yards off tee-recovered well.
Normally I would be concerned as his tee shot was way off the course, but his tee shot on 14, 15, 16, 17 were straight, his drive off 18 was off to the right in the rough & not as terrible as the 13th so KB has a few little corrections to make.
We expect him to play consistently on day 3 with 36 holes to play, he has also moved into 72nd on FedEx bubble so he knows he must get into the T70 in coming weeks to then make it into T50 for the Tour Championships.
He tends to thrive under pressure & his 2 final birdies today were under immense pressure. Currently around $55 on betfair and if he maintains his #1 ranking on approach he can be in this for a long way.
|
| J.J. Spaun |
Win (Late Mail)
|
70/1(+7000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Last years US Open winner has been hard to catch in 2026, we have selected JJ a few times including the “Late Mail” his formula over the final 36 holes is to get hot with his putter, we know he can as we have witnessed it with our own eyes.
JJ looked to follow Cam Youngs low scoring day when he started on the back 9 first & went birdie, Eagle, birdie on holes 13, 14 & 16 before giving a shot back with his bogey on the 17th, his putt only just missing before finding composure and birdie the 18th.
His back 9 score was 31 (35) so he started the stretch from holes 1 to 9 already -4 & his tee shot found the left rough & his 2nd shot was terrible @ 85 yards only finding the left bunker that guarded the green, even I shook my head for him, he finally got on the green and had a puttable shot for bogey on the par 4 before it hit the inside of the hole and ricocheted out.
Yes, a double bogey (6 shots) on a par 4 quickly erased and smile JJ had & you could see he was not happy. A steady play on hole 2 saw par before claiming his lost 2 shots backs with birdies on 3 & 4 and just as he looked to regather momentum yet again, he bogeyed hole 6.
He finished with a 67 (-3) for the day but he did steady the ship
Rocket Classic
- 17th x SG: OTT @ +1.748
- T21 x DA @ 71.42% (20/28)
- 27th x SG: APG @ +1.759
- T10 x GIR @ 80.56% (29/36)
- 13th x SG: ARG @ +1.162
- 59th x SG: Putting losing -0.730 strokes
- T21 x SG: Total @ +4.389
As we often look at JJ we really know his stats off by heart, he normally is a genuine chance if his putter can run consistent. He will not be under the same pressure as KB as JJ firmly is entrenched high up the FedEx rankings (now into 19th) he will be playing @ TOUR Championships and can even afford to miss perhaps the PGA Wyndham or PGA St Jude if he requires a freshen up, after opening around $55 on betfair after completion of day 2 there was plenty of +$70 on offer.
His overall 2 days of play has been good; he just needs to convert more birdies or at least avoid bogeys.
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| Si Woo Kim |
Win (Late Mail)
|
95/1(+9500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
It is very simple for SWK to be a chance he must sink more birdies, and it has always been the Achilles heel of his game.
Rocket Classic
- T33 x SG: OTT @ +0.882
- T44 x DA @ 64.29% (18/28)
- 13th x SG: APG @ +2.933
- T21 x GIR @ 77.78% (28/36)
- 18th x SG: ARG @ +1.432
- 67th x SG: PUT losing -1.918 strokes
- T32 x SG: Total @ +3.389
On day 1 no bull he hit this sweet little chip shot and it was going in the hole until it hit the flag, it was cruel to watch, he has had some very impressive shots just off the green & as he is usually one of the more accurate driving and with his 2nd & 3rd iron shot, I expect him to at least be setting up birdie conversions chances.
Ultra consistent in 2026, we think around $95 on betfair is ludicrous overs even if he is 5 shots off the leaders, Day 3 will see plenty of movement, hopefully SWK is one of those movers.
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| Marco Penge |
Win (Late Mail)
|
110/1(+11000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The Englishman who has been climbing the rankings in our player database and we have entertained him here and there in 2026, he returned to focus on DPWT, and we have not missed those efforts.
More known for his driver he had some good results on PGA with-
- T21 x PGA Valero Texas Open
- T4 x PGA Valspar
- T16 x PGA Genesis Invitational (won by Jacob Brdigeman) MP was there before fading.
He has improved his overall putting & has now been 100% in his last 3 events in SG: PUT and looking further back also has been in +SG: PUT in 7/10 with his around the green stats looking far better as well, this was on show recently when-
- T18 x The OPEN Championship with 72, 68, 69, 68 for -3 (SG: Total +5.64)
- T9 x DPWT BMW International with 68, 69, 70, 72 for -9 (SG: Total +7.92)
We are relying on MP being very consistent over the next 36 holes, we have seen enough of his play to expect him to break his PGA maiden tag very soon, He has beaten all of the best in OWGR previously having 3 x DP World tour wins to his name already (all coming in 2025 season) & unlike the non-winners on PGA tour he has much more chance to break through.
From what we have seen @ Detroit GC so far, the Englishman is clearly going for broke-
Rocket Classic
- 2nd x SG: OTT @ +3.945
- T35 x DA @ 67.86% (19/28)
- 29th x SG: APG @ +1.573
- T10 x GIR @ 80.56% (29/36)
- 20th x SG: ARG @ +1.115
- 70th x SG: PUT losing -2.244 strokes
- T21 x SG: Total @ +4.389
Day 1 saw a 70 (even par) but he had 5 birdies erased by the same amount of bogeys & day 2 he went for it with a 64 (-6) as the cut line kept moving but I liked the fact he went for it, it was to continue over the next few weeks or go home, he had 8 birdies on day 2 & kept the errors down with only 2 bogeys.
His driving accuracy a very high 78.57% (11/14) fairways found on day 2 & he was crisp with his wedge & iron play @ 88.89% (16/8) & T4 overall.
If he can continue anywhere near those figures, he can run up a challenge, with some of the bigger known guns looking ahead in 4-5 weeks’ time, MP is playing to just keep going from week to make the next week.
He will be ranked 106th on FedEx cup points before teeing off on day 3, he needs a big result here to leapfrog those around the T70 bubble.
We are happy to play MP at 1 unit as a late mail to find out, currently on betfair around $110, he opened @ $95 but it is possible to get matched closer to $150 as tee off is not for another 6 hours (check tee times for round 3 commencing).
There will be many players making a run on the traditional day 3, the hope is we can stack the deck for the final push with 18 holes to go.
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| Nick Taylor |
Win (Late Mail)
|
600/1(+60000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
This is our speculator & Saint Nick has been kind to us in the past, but we watched both 2 days @ Detroit and all the live coverage on Foxtel and we think he looks very comfortable out there.
Unlike a few players we have included as late mails he has not secured like SWK & JJ as they can choose to play in what events they like in the coming weeks, NT sits right on the bubble @ 69th on FedEx points.
NT has been here before, so he knows he needs a good result to shake off the chasers and 69th is too risky as the it is T70 then into T50 for the end of year Final.
Rocket Classic
- 60th x SG: OTT losing -0.316 strokes
- T21 x DA @ 71.43% (20/28)
- 42nd x SG: APG @ +0.819
- T10 x GIR @ 80.56% (29/36)
- 23rd x SG: ARG @ +1.079
- 36th x SG: PUT @ +1.807
- T32 x SG: Total @ +3.389
Unlike SWK, KB & JJ this Canadian late mail is very predictable and secure with his putting, he sist a comfortable 56th in all of 2026 in putting which is strengthened by his last 3 events all with +strokes gained in putting & also-
- 7/8 all in positive strokes gained putting
There is just something we have seen over the 2 days, he looks incredibly calm, on “a mission” you could say & other than being cut @ US Open which I know that would have hurt his pride as NT over the years honestly believes he is up there with the worlds best (he is currently 72nd in OWGR) he has been as high as 24th in OWGR.
A best foot forward approach by NT over the next 18 holes should see him set up for the final 18 holes on day 4, to have him on offer around $600 on betfair is ludicrous. Currently 32nd & only 5 shots off the leaders, he should be no more than $150 in our humble opinion.
Try for more than $600 as I have seen $700 in the time it has taken to type up the analysis, small increments at higher odds the best approach.
The main factor is that NT plays consistent golf & other than the cut @ a major he would have made 12 straight cuts, he is what we would call a “bread & butter” player.
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