PGA PGA Championship 2025 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

HOPEFUL 😀 IS GOOD ENOUGH:

2025 USPGA Championships
Quail Hollow GC
Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
May 17 to 18th 2025
Tee Off @ 10:15pm Our time (Please ckeck times)

As advised it is ALL ABOUT who can lessent h errors and remain @ par or better, Many players are going -10 over the 2 days they are having that eaten up bymore BOGEYS than birdies.

I highlited HOW IMPORTANT PAR 4s would be, they are FRICKN amust to stick to PAR 4s, so far 70% of players have DOUBLE BOGEYS on par 4s on this course, crazy stats really.

Anyway we want a grinder an all rounder and hopefully this player fits the bill, he has abit of improving to do but is very capable, he just needs to control the errors.

This has proven to be a very tough course, if most of the WORLDS top players could not EVEN MAKE THE CUT what does this say about the design?

I have read about 15 articles in the last 3 months on HOMA, in those he said his game was slowly improvig and like many he chaged so many aspects of his play, I had him peaing more for AUGUST as the crawl improvement seemed like it would take longer.

***He is one of only handful of Winners on this course albeit 6 years ago @ WELL FARGO to make it into day 3, unlike PAVION who had a clean card HOMA conquered the tough PAR 4s and he only faltered on the Par 3 the 4th hole.

Over the 2 days here he sits 5th in SG OFF the TEE, placement has been spot on & a decent 11th in SG PUTTING.

HOMA is @ -6 a nice buffer as long as he maintains his consistency on Day 2 into day 3. Even a-3 on day 3 may be enough to kick on into day 4.

For every $1 a possible return of $20 (Betfair) I will wait till around 8pm to see if I can grab $22 or similar.

The other logical hope would be MATT FITZPATRICK like HOMA was simply out of form he sits @ -6 too but I am leaning on horses for courses which HOMA won here in 2019 and HOMA did conquer those tricky Par 4s, there is 11 of them.

VALUE PLAY 🤑:

A lot was NOT said about how good his effort was in the US MASTERS when we tipped him.

Honestly I am amazed he is not around $50 to $66.

His skill is well known for his Prowess around the Greens, his putter usually very reliable & even he looked genuinely shocked when he missed the birdie par on the 13th hole.

A rare mistake but REED did finish 3rd @ -9 only 2 shots off playoff winner RORY MC ILROY.

the front 9 he went Bogey, Bogey to then correct that with 4 straight birdies on 6, 7, 8, 9.

He should have won, He also had 2 x EAGLES that was T2 so whilst he plays mainly over on the LIV Golf Tour where he is a passable 68% in GIR + in SG PUTTING he picks up 1.67 shots on Avg each round.

I actually got both $120 & $110 on Betfair, I have backed him in all markets.

All we have to do without winning is 2 x Top 5 or 10 or 20 to actually maKe profit on this whole weekend, a winner will be icing on the cake.

HIGH RISK 🤞 READ WHY + OPTIONS:

Our own Aussie has some staggering stats.

Not only is he a Winner back in 2018 he was T4 in the PAR 4 scoring, this suoer important as advised in Pre Analysis.

6 winners since 2017 all were under 4 shots on Average & Day was officially 3.93 shots, RORY who won this in 2024 was ranked 1st with 3.86 shots, even WYNDHAM CLARK a winner in 2023 was also 1st with 3.86.

I have all the stats if you need them!

NOW the risk is that DAY withdrew last week @ TRUIST becuase he has long had BACK spasms but he is also greatly affected by his sinus.

So stick to same level staking, if he starts well he will be managing it well.

IF YOU WANT LESS RISK due to his problems, then throw in SHANE LOWRY @ $55 he has never played better than now in 2025 or SUNGJAE IM @ $160 (his effort in MASTERS 1st class) wait though as he is on a drift from $140 ***(he may actually be sent out as another MAIN SELECTION).

For now $1 win on Betair @ $140, he is only $86 on Sportsbet & $86 on BET 365.

THE SMOKEY 🙏:

Yes this little LEPRECHAUN from Ireland is the forgotten FROM MY ISLAND with RORY & LOWRY hogging all the limelight.

He is a HORSE for COURSE scenario.

His last 5 here have resulted in-

T17, T23, T54, T18 & T16

That effort last year in 2024 was better than it even reads as he was nursing a major injury,
being HIP & BACK earlier in 2023 which flared up in the back end of 2024 into 2025 to recover and his golf is on the improve. More below.

I actually got $1000 matched & $980 on Betfair last night, he is currently this price at time of analsysis write up.

PEAKING BIG TIME👌:

Hideki has kept himself nice and fresh for this with only 2 events in the last 4 weeks.

***In 2025 thus far he has made 9 CUTS from 11 events with a 1st & 1 x Top 10 but 7 x in the Top 25.

A strong 13th in SG Total, His OFF the TEE not good +100th but he makes this up being 14th SG TEE to GREEN, throw in his SG APPROACH to GREEN (24th) he sets up his shots well being 4th in SG AROUND the Green.

He holds well with his Putter, not sstrong as REED if comparing but PAR 4s he is currently ranked 19th & one I like is BOGEY AVOIDANCE @ 29th.

You want plays who are well rounded here & HIDEKI fits that bill.

I will wait until more than $86k comes into Betfair as it will grow by 10 to 20 x more yet, so price will be adjusted, as Sportsbet have him @ $9.50 & BET 365 @ $7.

THE OVERS 🚀:

JJ was a star player in High school and went thru College with a scholarship he also led his team to 2 x Championships in the USA, his junior play does not get the mention like it should.

He was misdiagnosed for years to have Diabetes 3, he maanged as best as he could but his healht was an issue, He actually had Diabetes 1, big difference.

After many years of sorting himself out his last 2 years on PGA Tour have seen some incredible
results.

SURE we tipped RORY to beat him in the playoff @ THE PLAYERS in March but he was taking on a player that had won 4 MAJORS (now 5) & 46 x 1sts to his 1.

I did say he would choke but I have learnt alot about JJ SPAUN in the last 3 weeks. I AM ONE that really can see his STAR is on the rise, CREDIT is due!

At $370 on betfair for every $1 invested he may not win but he has shown us 3 times in 2025 that his 2 x 2nds + a 3rd he deserves to be here, Overs IMO.

You will get more $$$ in the next 24 hours.