Mexico Open at VidantaWorld 2025 Golf Picks, Odds & Analysis

MOST PROBABLE 🔥:

Now if you have been following the GOLF picks religiously as I do you know we have often tipped the big fella from Germany.

Already a winner now on the PGA he has nothing to lose but yeah he is short odds to STILL CHASE down 3 shots from the 1st TEE.

What I am saying is even though he is within 3 we need the SAR player to par or bogey a few early to unsettle him.

The thing is with JAEGER he managed to keep out #1 Scottie Shceffler so you can make an argument he has 2 rookies above him being 2 & 3 shots ahead. Alot will happen on the front 9 but JAEGER went 4 birdies in the 1st x 7 holes before a bogey on that 7th hole.

For all 3 rounds at VIDANTA he has managed to rank-

SG Off Tea x 19th (1.376 strokes gained)
SG Approach to Green x 24th (2.143 strokes gained)
SG Around the Green x 27th (1.141 strokes gained)

Now the BIG hoopla was all about who can drive the longest which is why ALDRICH POTGEITER is fairing as well as he is, POTGEITER is #2 SG off the Tee with a crazy 4.253 strokes gained & he is #1 in Putting.

Jaeger is currently #2 so the SAR has the wood truly on his competitiors as he is very accurate on the fairways but his nerves did start to show as he bogeyed a few holes, he still played very well but the BIG ??? is if he only cards a -4 & the chasers card a -7 to -8 it is most likely the chasers catch him.

IT IS ALL ABOUT THE FRONT 9 in the wee hours off Monday morning & even though JAEGER is somewhat handicapped (chasing -3) he also has WON on Tour (Texas Open) & has represented his Country in the Olympics.

Again it all starts in the front 9- if the BIG YOUNG SAR steadies early he probably wins, which will crush me as I have a big liability so LOSES, LOSE LOSE please.

I only Had $250 on JAEGER @ $5.50 so covers my whole outlay on the event bar the LAY play.

MY PREFERRED 🤞:

Yes the Englishman we have also tipped a few times and he had the long drives etc so I did consider him in early markets but thought I would go for better priced players IMO.

NOW I left out the man in the middle in ALEX SMALLEY he sits @ -15 being -1 above AARON RAI so why exclude him?

SMALLEY stats are good this week but if you recall I had him in my selections only afew events & he slumped, he too is a NON winner on the PGA and sure he does play well but I try and remain NON BIAS but I try not to back players who crumble late, we have been burned by afew over the years who IMO should just win.

That final day pressure is so bizarre, not only the young ones but remember Rickie Fowler? how the frick he did not win that time?

Anyway the Englishman here owes us nothing but this week in the 3 rounds to date he sits @-

SG Off Tea x 10th (2.917 strokes gained)
SG Approach to Green x 3rd (6.316 strokes gained)

Now he is south 30th around the greens which is problematic but he is T3 for driving accuracy so if he can get as close as he has over the last 3 days that 6 strokes gained around the Approach to Greens may pay dividends.

WE JUST NEED HIS PUTTER to be hotter than usual.

Of course he is still a massive 6 shots off the young SAR but much can happen in this game & I have been on & seen players win from 7 to 8 off on the final Day, it all comes down to what the leaders do & if the chasers are on song.

RAI went only a -3 yesterday but was clean everywhere else & on Day 2 a very good -7 with an Eagle on 7, On day 1 he went a -5 but a Bogey on 3 was his only error from 54 holes.

Rai seems to be perculating well for his final day 4 assault.

Sure he has to give 4 players above him the start but I have a general rule when it comes to Day 4 & that is take off the leader and the target is the 2nd player.

STATS do rule when it comes to Golf & the example when DETRY won he too was perculating well, the difference he had a nice few shots up his sleeve.

I just think the odds are worthwhile, I had $150 on @ $42 on Betfair, you can get NOW $44 probably soon more, that is it for me though, both are good enough it all depends on what the young SAR does 1st 9.

Event: 2025-02-21 - ⛳ PGA Mexico Open
Selection: Michael Kim WIN
Comment (Short): Hard to Beat 👍
Comment (Long):

Very inform player that sits in 27th FEDEX and is actually #80 in the world.

Currently 28th in SG Total and off the Tee is #47 & #37 Approach Greens.

These are the 3 stats that count this weel, accurate driving and placement on the greens, Putting can be forgiving.

1 unit WIN only
Win Odds: WIN x1.00
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Profit/Loss: 0.00
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Event: 2025-02-21 - ⛳ PGA Mexico Open
Selection: Jackson Suber WIN
Comment (Short): The Roughie 🙏 He is RED 🔥
Comment (Long):

A T6 in the SONY Open was a fantastic result for him, he then went 65 on the 1st day @ the AMERICAN EXPRESS before bombing the Farmers Open.

Sits in 2nd overall SG Total, only 90th off the Tee but #1 SG Approach to the Green (strokes gained) and an impressive 18th SG Putting.

He only needs a clean start to figure at long overs.

Because of his odds play him harder on the Top 10 & 20 and even 40.
Win Odds: WIN x1.00
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Profit/Loss: 0.00
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PLAY TOP 20 💪:

Already a Winner on the PGA unlike most here, he sits #5 in SG Total thats this season including the BIG GUNS.

I missed $140 as had saved my plays to go back & back them, he is also 5th in PUTTING, very rare.

1 Unit Win to be resulted but back him Top 20 all day long.

7 INTERNATIONAL WINS

More than 70% of this field have never won even 1 event so although this South African has beaten the Top 20 in the World.

He can be slow to start but if he is in the Top 10 come day 3 lookout.

Value play so 1 unit win only but I am playing him top 10 & 20.

Event: 2025-02-21 - ⛳ PGA Mexico Open
Selection: Victor Perez WIN
Comment (Short): I am Following 🤞
Comment (Long):

He is a good player but another who seems to lose the plot from time to time.

1 unit WIN to be resulted but I have more on him to Top 20 personally.
Win Odds: WIN x1.00
Resulted:
Won:
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Profit/Loss: 0.00
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