| Rickie Fowler |
Win |
44/1(+4400) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 52nd x SG: Total
- 71st x SG: T2G
- 49th x SG: OTT
- 31st x DA @ 63.26%
- 78th x SG: APG
- 63rd x GIR @ 66.67%
- 104th x SG: ARG
- 40th x SG PUT
- 11/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 68.75%
Despite missing his last 3 of 4 cuts before bouncing back with a T38 last week @ PGA Travelers the cuts were @ US Open, The Memorial & Charles Schwab.
RF did have strong results prior with 3 straight T10s the best of those a T2 @ PGA Truist in early May after we had been selecting him in that run. He opened around $42 on betfair and has slightly drifted to $46, there is however only $52k in the pool, a fair price is $55 to $60 considering he has been cut but remembering he had good form prior.
|
| Sungjae Im |
Win |
60/1(+6000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 66th x SG: Total
- 98th x SG: T2G
- 51st x SG: OTT
- 65th x DA @ 60.99%
- 144th x SG: APG
- 149th x GIR @ 60.07%
- 14th x SG: ARG
- 32nd x SG PUT
- 10/14 Cuts made in 2026 for 71.42%
It is well documented that SIM had a layoff due to injury, and we saw some kind of form back in mid-March when a T4 @ PGA Valspar.
From his 11 events since his best result since was a T5 @ PGA Truist + T9 @ PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson and has good finishes in 3 of his last 4 events.
His best is good enough in this weaker affair & after opening around $44 on betfair there is $60 available, we can push & see if you can get matched for +$70, we liked him @ $44 so anything over is a bonus.
|
| Daniel Berger |
Win |
60/1(+6000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 69th x SG: Total
- 53rd x SG: T2G
- 83rd x SG: OTT
- 43rd x DA @ 62.37%
- 9th x SG: APG
- 22nd x GIR @ 68.95%
- 129th x SG: ARG
- 104th x SG PUT
- 12/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 75%
After duelling it out with Akshay Bhatia @ PGA Arnold Palmer in early March he has found consistent results in the 6 of 9 events since and around a course where his ball striking will play a big role, he can easily appear as a contender as he aims for a 5th PGA Win.
DB opened around $50 on betfair and although drifting to $60 has found steady support, it is an acceptable price but always see if you can get matched for higher, you can always come back to the $60. He only needs to maintain his 2026 form to feature.
|
| Michael Kim |
Win |
65/1(+6500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 76th x SG: Total
- 116th x SG: T2G
- 134th x SG: OTT
- 121st x DA @ 55.74%
- 101st x SG: APG
- 135th x GIR @ 62.99%
- 51st x SG: ARG
- 22nd x SG PUT
- 14/18 Cuts made in 2026 for 77.77%
For newer members we nearly got MK up @ $220 and it is very simple, when his putter is on song then he will always feature on the leaderboard. Why we like MK is since the narrow miss @ PGA Valero Open, he has made 8 of 9 cuts and 8 straight now with good results in strong fields.
As highlighted in previous events when picked (see on website) he only needs to improve off the tee & get his wedge/irons to co-operate then his good putting can sink a few more birdies than most. After opening around $55 on betfair he has found support around $65, I would like to try and get matched between $75 to $80.
His starts can often be slow so if he were to find himself withing 3 or 4 after day 1 then he usually has a low round in him, lower usually than 60% of this field.
|
| Aldrich Potgieter |
Win |
70/1(+7000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 83rd x SG: Total
- 73rd x SG: T2G
- 9th x SG: OTT
- 137th x DA @ 53.04%
- 113th x SG: APG
- 89th x GIR @ 65.19%
- 139th x SG: ARG
- 101st x SG PUT
- 8/14 Cuts made in 2026 for 57.14%
The Stig & MJ had selected Potty for the PGA Cadillac; he had a few good days for his T14 but most importantly we highlighted in the analysis the incredible change in Potty (see on website) but one aspect of his game that has seen the most improvement is in his putting.
After being 1st in driving distance in 2026 his putting was very weak in general & he has now had positive strokes gained in 5 straight events. This is significant as he would give away between -2 to -3 strokes in putting which you just cannot do & expect to be around come day 4 with 18 holes to play.
After opening around $60 on betfair & a surprise to us there is +$70 and could be more considering at the time is summary there is only $52k in the betfair pool, try for more as $100 would not be impossible. His whole new game of late can take him far in this.
|
| Davis Thompson |
Win |
80/1(+8000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 86th x SG: Total
- 39th x SG: T2G
- 56th x SG: OTT
- 65th x DA @ 60.43%
- 56th x SG: APG
- 41st x GIR @ 67.38%
- 63rd x SG: ARG
- 149th x SG PUT
- 10/15 Cuts made in 2026 for 66.67%
A player who could really have his best season yet if he could only get his putting in line with the rest of his game. DT is ranked 39th in strokes gained tee to green yet is ranked poorly @ 149th in putting, if he could improve his putting by just 40%, he would have many more wins than his sole PGA Win at this very event in 2024.
- DT shot an incredible -28 when 1st here in 2024 (-8, -4, -9, -7)
What is very positive is he has also now had +SG in putting in 4 of his last 8 (50%) & we can forgive his cut @ US Open, he will be nice & fresh for this & perhaps he is lower odds than usual as a previous TPC Deere Run winner as we have seen him start well above +$120 in other recent events other than the major he was cut in.
DT did give the PGA Sony Open in Hawaii a big nudge earlier in 2026 (won by Gotterup) who has really franked his form in 2026. I would be comfortable if we could get near $100 on betfair, he opened around $65 on betfair and there is no money and has now drifted to $80.
Again, he is a course winner and that goes along way this weekend.
|
| Taylor Pendrith |
Win |
100/1(+10000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 109th x SG: Total
- 73rd x SG: T2G
- 32nd x SG: OTT
- 106th x DA @ 57.29%
- 111th x SG: APG
- 19th x GIR @ 69.22%
- 86th x SG: ARG
- 119th x SG PUT
- 13/18 Cuts made in 2026 for 72.22%
Canadian TP is a very hard player to catch and often perhaps over tipped by analysts along with fellow countryman, Corey Conners, both good ball strikers and both have lured us in at times but why this week?
This is a weaker field than usual in the sense of whilst it has a few decent names here the majority are resting for upcoming events over the pond, this event gives those fringe players who would normally finish between T40 to T60 with more of the better OWGR players at those events & in previous years there has been 1st time winners on PGA tour.
I just think in 2026 it will be one of the “fringe players” to break through again & after opening around $90 on betfair on Monday night (AEST) there is now plenty of $100 to be matched, for certain try above +$120.
|
| Luke Clanton |
Win |
180/1(+18000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 141st x SG: Total
- 129th x SG: T2G
- 146th x SG: OTT
- 110th x DA @ 57.23%
- 35th x SG: APG
- 29th x GIR @ 68.32%
- 140th x SG: ARG
- 138th x SG PUT
- 8/13 cuts made for 61.53%
We @ PGT like what we have been seeing with our own eyes with this 22yr old. His last 3 events have seen more consistent efforts across all strokes gained & after seeing him when T5 @ PGA Puerto Rico in March he has made 7 of 8 cuts since but 7 straight and it is his wedge/iron play & his putting that has seen the most improvement.
He will only be growing in confidence but if there is to be “a maiden” winner this week it could well be him, after opening around $110 on betfair he has really drifted now out to $180.
If his putter continues to sink opportunities as we are seeing of late, contrary to his actual 2026 PGA stats which is over 13 events not his last 8 then we can see him mount a serious challenge.
$200 is not impossible on betfair.
|
| Andrew Putnam |
Win |
170/1(+17000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 64th x SG: Total
- 80th x SG: T2G
- 148th x SG: OTT
- 4th x DA @ 69.65%
- 64th x SG: APG
- 118th x GIR @ 63.68%
- 6th x SG: ARG
- 55th x SG PUT
- 12/16 Cuts made in 2026 for 75%
AP has been on the PGA tour since 2015 & although he boasts only 1 win from 258 events he has-
- 5 x 2nds
- 16 x T5
- 27 x T10
- 63 x T25
At first glance you might think okay but the 63 x T25s improve from 161 cuts he has made from those 258 events, this shows a much stronger 39.13% when he makes it past 36 holes.
Often why is he is notoriously a slow starter and like Nicolai Hojgaard last week who was +$250 they both can finish well (Nicolai shot 62 last week (-8) on day 4, Putty can do that on day 3 or 4 never both of course.
He is trending well with his last 6 straight events in positive strokes gained in putting with crisp play around the greens, he has not had 6 straight events in putting since late 2024 & after opening around $120 on betfair there is no current support with plenty of $170 on offer.
As evident with his T5 @ Valero followed up with a T18 @ Cadillac then a T17 @ Charles Schwab his game has never looked a sharp, fresh since the US open we like him around +$200, if he play like he has, especially with is putting in his last 6 straight then he is the value pick this week.
|
| Tom Hoge |
Win |
220/1(+22000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
- 135th x SG: Total
- 134th x SG: T2G
- 144th x SG: OTT
- 96th x DA @ 58.07%
- 62nd x SG: APG
- 105th x GIR @ 64.84%
- 134th x SG: ARG
- 108th x SG PUT
- 14/20 Cuts made in 2026 for 70%
TH was playing some of his best golf of late back in April& May this year, he showed us glimpses earlier when T14 @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach & his best results are on courses that are difficult, He has not played at TPC Deere Run in the last 5 years but he carded a 62 when T6 @ CJ Cup & 61 when T6 @ Zurich where to be fair that event has produced recent winners in both Fitzy brothers, Reitan, Smalley led a major so it has recent strong form lines.
Hogey will have to be on song with his approach play as he can be hot & cold with his putter but as we have seen with most players if they run hot it usually is out of the blue one weekend, enter Aaron Rai but after opening around $150 on betfair we are getting odds to find out can he put it all together @ $220.
If can try for $250 to $300, he deserves to be those odds based on his last 4 events, if you were making your own market in the previous 5 events then he would be less than $70, he has also made 9 of his last 10 cuts, we want as many as we can get into day 3 with 36 holes to go.
We just need Hogey to fire on all cylinders, unlike 35% of this line up he does have 3 x T10s in 2026.
|
| Zach Johnson |
Win (Late Mail)
|
46/1(+4600) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
It was interesting to listen to several interviews with ZJ over the 3 days @ TPC Deere Run, the first interview before a ball was even struck on day 1, he was super positive saying “I am here to win”.
Much of this was from the fact he is a past winner of this event (2012) & also the fact he was playing the PGA Champions tour (known as the Seniors tour +50 yrs of age) where he currently sits in 2nd overall to Stewart Cink but most importantly IMO is he bypassed the US Senior Open which has a handy $4’000’000 purse.
On day 2 it was very reflective in that he said “I left too many out there” but on day 3 it was a good rebound to finish with a 66 (-5), with 3 days now behind him with rounds of-
- Day 1 a 65 (-7) with 1 eagle + 6 birdies minus 1 bogey
- Day 2 a 70 (-1) with 4 birdies minus 3 bogeys
- Day 3 a 66 (-5) with 1 eagle + 5 birdies minus 2 bogeys
Whilst he does not drive the ball as long as most around TPC Deere run you need to find fairways, that is how simple it is.
TPC Deere Run stats this week-
- 42nd x SG: OTT losing -0.012 strokes
- T3 x Driving Accuracy @ 78.57% (33/42)
- 27th x SG: APG @ +2.756 strokes gained
- T27 x Greens in Regulation @ 75.93% (41/54)
- 10th x SG: ARG @ +2.289 strokes gained
- 16th x SG: Putting @ +3.193 strokes gained
- 7th x SG: Total @ +8.226
ZJ has shown great resilience and that only comes from his 15 Wins on tour (12 PGA) including 2 majors to boot, we must consider that a little more than 50% of the current Top 20 on this leader board have “0” wins on the PGA tour, some have been trying for +200 events (a few of them).
ZJ knows what it takes and he has been consistent when small errors have crept in with-
- T35 x Sand Saves @ 60.00% (3/5)
- T26 x Scrambling @ 69.23% (9/13)
From 2 of the 3 days, he also owns 2 eagles (Day 1 & 3) and is currently-
- T1 x Eagles (2)
- T23 x Birdies (15)
- T57 x Pars (31)
- T31 x Bogeys (6)
Deep in discussions with The Stig this morning we still think a player could blow everyone away with a 62 (-9) or 63 (-8) from well back in the field, even Rickie Fowler was -9 today coming into the 9th (his 18th) when @ -9 & in a putt he should have made for par on that hole he missed & the bogey dropped him down to a 63 for the day.
Looking at who is capable of going low or at least the target must be close to -20 to win this weekend we expect a few up the top currently will struggle, if players like the 3 x late mails can card at least a 65 to 66 then they give themselves a realistic chance of lifting the trophy!
Currently around $46 on betfair now after he opened around $40 try getting matched closer to $50-$55. The exchange will settle this afternoon as more desperate money fills the pools.
ZJ is only 3 shots off the tied leaders, all eyes will be on the front 9 to see who will fold under the early pressure and who makes that early run. Not giving away a bogey an imperative strategy on how to win this.
|
| Max Homa |
Win (Late Mail)
|
55/1(+5500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Although Mr cruise, Max Homa is around $60 we do like ZJ & CG much more, MH will need to be on point for him to challenge, his game has been consistent in the last few months, why we like him this week is his putting has been his strength with-
- 6 of last 7 events in positive strokes gained (SG: PUT)
MH was on our radar in February & March, but he was more like a player that was reliable to T40 rather than to win, he did pop @ MASTERS with a solid T9.
It was not until his 2 most recent finishes we start considering Mr cruise again-
- T20 @ PGA RBC Canadian Open with 68, 67, 67,69 for -9
- T22 @ PGA Charles Schwab with 66, 71, 71, 67 for -5
The most pleasing strokes gained metric that came out of the 2 most recent results was that MH was in positive strokes gained with his wedge & iron play, his previous 4 events he was very off with his irons yet his 15 of 17 previously were also in +SG.
I get the feel he is playing much better golf and this week around-
TPC Deere Run stats this week-
- 32nd x SG: OTT @ +0.429 strokes gained
- T64 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (24/42)
- 13th x SG: APG @ +4.219 strokes gained
- T11 x Greens in Regulation @ 79.63% (43/54)
- 24th x SG: ARG @ +1.232 strokes gained
- T37 x SG: Putting @ +1.346
- T8 x SG: Total @ +7.226
Oddly enough on the visual all weekend with MH despite his only finding 24 fairways he has only had to get out of bunkers twice (1/2 sand saves).
- 6th x Scrambling @ 81.82% (9/11)
Our eyes will be on MH off the tee box with 18 holes to go, he has picked up over +4 strokes on approach and if this continues the final day, he can be a real chance to be poking around the leaderboard.
MH will start @ -12 & be spotting Zach Jonson 1 shot but be 1 shot in advance of Chris Gotterup, he is fairly priced around $55 now on betfair, I would try for between $60 to $70 as a suggestion but if Chris Gotterup is already on the plane (mentally) then this could well be MH best chance of a win in 2026 to advance his overall PGA wins to 7.
All 3 x Late Mail are in with a good show, we still also have Rickie Fowler @ -11 along with Andrew Putnam also @ -11, RF needs to repeat today & we were pleased with AP and his positives strokes gained off the tee on day 3, day 1 & 2 he gave away just under 4 strokes off the tee so for him to be sitting @ -11 he had to lean on his putter (thankfully).
5 in with a chance with Tom Hoge & Davis Thompson both on -9 and 1 shot back is Sungjae Im @ -8, all 3 would have to card incredible scores on Day 4, not impossible but tough.
|
| Chris Gotterup |
Win (Late Mail)
|
85/1(+8500) |
1.00 |
WIN |
We left CG alone for this PGA event for the simple reason he will go over the pond next week to defend his 2025 Genesis Scottish Open win & personally The Stig & MJ had lengthy conversations as to what his mental state would be this week?
With the absence of some of the worlds highest ranked he still is the top seeded OWGR player (14th OWGR) here this weekend & upon watching him over 54 holes he gives us the impression he has never been out of 2nd gear.
Days of-
- Day 1 a 66 (-5) with 5 birdies
- Day 2 a 68 (-3) with 4 birdies minus 1 bogey on hole 6
- Day 3 a 68 (-3) with 1 eagle + 3 birdies minus 2 bogeys
What the stats really do not highlight which is from the visual of watching him play the 56 holes is he had some brilliant par saves, especially today on day 3.
TPC Deere Run stats this week-
- 1st x SG: OTT @ +4.410 strokes gained
- T18 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.05% (29/42)
- 75th x SG: APG losing -2.491 strokes
- T34 x Greens in Regulation @ 74.07% (40/54)
- 8th x SG: ARG +2.402 strokes gained
- 26th x SG: Putting @ +1.905 strokes gained
- T12 x SG: Total @ +6.226
Even though to the eye CG looks like he is cruising in 2nd gear he still is putting in the effort with some good scrambling when the odd shot misses the fairway with-
- T27 x Sand Saves @ 66.67% (2/3)
- T10 x Scrambling @ 78.57% (11/14)
With only 18 holes remaining and despite being 5 shots adrift the 56-hole leaders Lucas Glover & Lee Hodges (both players we have tipped in 2026 but both have faded) we like CG now who can grind this out with similar wins when close enough in 2026 in Hawaii @ PGA SONY Open & when we were on @ PGA WM Phoenix Open.
Most of his game has evolved in 2026 and even though he has lost near 2.5 strokes on approach this weekend he is ranked 39th amongst all players in strokes gained approach on PGA tour in 2026 across 16 events so there is plenty of $85 on betfair to be matched.
Betfair has not settled quite yet so we expect it to be more stable in the afternoon so always try and get matched for higher!
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