DPWT Dubai Invitational 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

I can happily forgive Rory in Melbourne @ the Crown Open although we steered well clear for a reason, you could see how tired he looked plus his media commitments were too large, it showed with his struggling T14.

We can rely on his more usual good stats as he has now in his last 25 starts in 2025-

• 24 of 25 in +SG: Total with +3.01 on avg each day
• 24 of 25 in +SG: OTT with +1.32 on avg each day
• 20 of 25 in +SG: APG with +0.68 on avg each day
• 18 of 25 in +SG: ARG with +0.49 on avg each day with 4 events less than -0.35 strokes
• 19 of 25 in +SG: PUT with +1.75 on avg each day with 4 events less than -0.25 strokes

Most events Rory probably does not get the props he deserves with his putter but he can hold his own and even @ this event in 2024 he was still-

SG Total with +3.09 strokes each day which was made up of +0.69 strokes picked up just in putting each day, it is important to note he also produced very similar figures when he backed up at-

• 1^st x DPWT 2024 Hero Dubai Desert Classic with -14 with rounds of 71, 70, 63 & 70

In 2025 he has now produced 4 x 1sts & 4 x 2nds & although The Stig & MJ do not normally favour short favourites, we have developed a new strategy for 2026 & it includes all players that we think can win regardless of price.

Rory in 2025 made-

• 7% made all cuts
• 5% of all events in Top 25
• 9^th in SG: PUT amongst all PGA players in 2025
• 4^th in SG: OTT which will help on this course
• 1 was his stroke avg in 2025 only bettered by Scott Scheffler.

Currently $4.70 on betfair to Win outright.

We all knew Tommy could play and he proved this in his time over in Europe with

• 8 x DPWT Win including the 2024 edition of the Dubai Invitational

That win at this course in 2024 was by 1 shot over Rory with Tommy scoring consistent rounds of

66, 69, 63 & 67 for his -19.

More recently I watched closely his dual with fellow Englishman Aaron Rai in Dubai @ the Yas Links course, it too had wide open rolling fairways and very large greens with all his SG metrics in positive strokes gained & on show.

He lost to Aaron Rai albeit with -25 but they did look the most likely to fight it out in early November, the player that had the best finish on day 4 was Rory with his closing 62 (-10).

That event I refer to is because the courses in Dubai play very similarly to each other & Tommy had 2 x 1sts from 4 events leading into the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championships.

I was very surprised to learn how good Tommy has been over the 2025 season overall.

• 24 cuts made from 25 events.
• 11 straight cuts made leading into this weekend
• 24 of 25 events in +SG: Total with +3.49 strokes on avg each day

Not as strong as Rory OTT however is better in strokes gained in other SG metrics such as-

• 6^th overall in PGA in SG: APG (Approach the Green)
• 25^th overall in PGA in SG: ARG (Around the Green)
• 3^rd in PGA in SG: T2G (Tee to Green) as where Rory sits in 11^th

I am making comparisons with the 2 favs as currently Tommy is @ $6.20 on betfair so we can identify him as better value at the time of analysis.

What we have improved @ PGT is having more players make it into day 3 so more players have the chance to earn in the final 36 holes.

• 7% made all cuts
• 7% of Greens in Regulation (in Dubai he is 87.3%)

Overall in all SG metrics we know Tommy has a better skill set on approach & around the greens and like Rory holds his own with his putter, Rory hits longer yet his accuracy is actually below PGA Tour avg as where Tommy sits comfortably with his driving accuracy @ 67.37%.

Both The Stig & MJ have time for the Hojgaard twins and Rasmus did lead by 5 shots on the final day @ his home event The Danish Open in mid-August 2025, he finished 2^nd by 1 stroke to Marco Penge who really turned the corner in Europe.

In 2025 his twin brother Nicolai was also playing good golf and it is sometimes hard to remember they are still only 24 yrs of age.

In 2024 Nicolai who I personally believe is the better player finished T25 with his -5 & his putting let him down @ this course & event.

Looking at his entire 2025 record-

• Only 11 of 25 events in +SG: PUT

Fast forward I think 2026 is a breakout year for both twins as we watch all golf events Nicolai was also often the victim of missing some very close putts, that would obviously have weighted bearing on his SG stats. However, he does bring some strengths in his game, that being-

• SG: OTT is 18 of 25 in positive strokes gained.
• 7% cuts made in PGA events in 2025
• 47% Green in Regulation in PGA events (higher in DP)
• 48 Stroke avg- compared to Rory is 69.1

There are some big positives moving forward, his Iron paly is his strength he just needs to tidy up the putting.

As he is player that relies heavily on confidence so when he is playing well he can go on runs of 5 to 6 straight events with the usual Top 10 results, when his confidence is low he can mis 3 to 5 straight cuts.

I compare the above because he has now gone 3 straight events in the back end of 2025-

• T14 x PGA Baycurrent in Japan with -10 carding 68, 70, 72, 64
• T3 x DPWT Abu Dhabi HSBC Championships with -24 carding 65, 67, 65, 67
• T11 x DPWT Championship with -13 carding 67, 65, 73, 70

Nicolai has always suited playing in Dubai & he did show great resilience when he carded 73 (+1) on day 3 after losing -3.33 strokes he rebounded well with his +0.21 strokes gained and behind him were recent winners Tom McKibbin, Jayden Schaper (2 x 1sts), Marco Penge, Kristoffer Reitan & even Michael Kim.

That is strong form.

Like this course being forgiving due to the size of the greens as are clubs, he starts well he plays well but around the $18.5 on betfair is a price on what he can be, in this line up I think a fairer price is around $35.

We were fortunate to have selected this young Spaniard when he won @ BMW Championships @ Royal Brisbane with a very strong -18.

He was consistent over all 4 days with 68, 67, 65, 66 & despite playing over @ LIV it is great to see the younger players from LIV wanting to show us their goods before the LIV season commences.

I want to highlight his good stats in QLD.

• Stroke avg was +66.50 (the course is a par 71
• 15th in SG: OTT in driving with +0.36 strokes gained each day
• 17^th in Birdies with 4.50 each round
• 1^st in Bogeys with only 0.50 each round
• 2^nd in par 3 scoring with 2.75 strokes
• 4^th in par 4 scoring with 3.82 strokes
• 4^th in GIR with 79.17% (he should easily be closer to higher +88 % in Dubai
• 1^st in scrambling with 86.67% ARG
• 3^rd in SG: PUT

It was David's 1^st win on the DPWT but he was composed and to watch his Iron play was a delight so we cautiously did NOT select him in Melbourne as not many can back up a win with another win which was wilder when Jayden Schaper put 2 good wins back-to-back.

Fast forward to the new year and he arrives very fresh for Dubai and another player that will absolutely enjoy the big greens as targets, the course @ Royal Brisbane is very.

His placement including back spins close to the pin was good to witness, a player who generally matches him with iron play features this week as well.

Finally, DP has played in 22 events in 2025 & moving into 2026 has some positives such as-

• 18 of 22 events he has 81.8% SG: PUT ranging from +0.28 to a high of +1.96 strokes
• 21 of 22 in SG: OTT with his avg of +1.24 strokes gained each round
• 19 of 22 events in SG: Total (his weakness not really is ARG)

Looking through his resume, I could not find Dubai but he has played many games in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh as the courses though are all in the desert so all feature similar grasses being drought tolerant etc.

What we saw in QLD he should be even better around the greens than most, he is another young gun who has been priced more for what he will be than who he meets in this field.

At his current $30 on betfair I would think his more reasonable price is $40, he has proven veterans at much better odds.

The Danish player was so close to obtaining is 1^st win on US soil in 2025 but often just came up short on the final day.

In Europe he has already amassed 8 x DPWT wins & he did make the PGA top 100 on FedEx points being ranked @ 96 after the PGA announced a move down from 120, those players are now on the KFT trying to win their way back. Thorbjorn has his 2026 card locked in so we will see more of him.

His best results in 2025 on PGA tour were-

• T14 @ PGA WWT Championships with –21 in early November
• T3 @ PGA Bank of Utah Championships with -16 in late October
• T14 @ PGA 3M Open with -16 in late July
• T7 @ PGA Myrtle Beach with -12 in Mid-May
• T5 @ PGA Valero Texas Open with -4

His resume is better than that as he had Multiple 1^st time winners finish behind him in 3 of those events with the most recent being a player that was in our players to follow in Sami Valimaki, Steve Fisk & Harry Hall, the company he has kept is strong.

The above are only highlights but in the 31 events in 2025 in mixed organisations TO still made-

• 22 of 31 cuts made for 70.96%
• Just in Rose has only made 66% of cuts in 2025 as a comparable.
• 15 of the 31 events resulted in Top 35 finishes.
• 65% greens in regulation on the stronger PGA tour
• 29% driving accuracy which sits well above tour avg
• 4 stroke avg on tour (remember above players) how good they are.
• Top 85 in all 5 x SG: metrics in PGA
• #87 on our new ratings system
• 25^th in SG: PUT amongst all PGA players.

Both the Stig & MJ do not just provide stats to say he is this & that we are using our own database to find consistent winners, TO has come very close & I did watch him when he chose the same shot that rolled down the hill on approach, his chip repeated and the commentators were all asking why did he not change his 3 iron @ Utah, it cost him -2 shots on 1 hole.

He is a player well suited to Dubai having already proved his mettle with-

• T3 x 2024 Abu Dhabi HSBC championships with -21 (tied with Rory).

That was on the Yas links course again very similar to this & he is not the shiny new thing like David Puig so betfair offers us $28 which is a fairer price than DP. In saying that TO would normally start +$50 in most events.

A very big fan of this kiwi but he did disappoint in both starts in QLD @ Melbourne despite finishing-

• T6 x PGA/DPWT 2026 Crown Melbourne Open with -10 (Dec 2025) in Brisbane.
• T5 x PGA BMW 2026 Australian Open with -14 (Nov 2025) in Melbourne

I say disappoint as those results were on the back of some very strong form @ DPWT

• T5 x DPWT Abu Dhabi HSBC Championships with -22 with rounds of 66, 68, 65, 67

The expectation was high after he placed T9 @ DPWT India Championship on a course that was incredibly hard with even the better know Iron players struggling, his form followed the T5 which was on the Yas links course in Dubai so very similar to this week's course.

• 12 x straight cuts since early sept 2025
• 22 of 31 + strokes gained in SG: PUT for a good 71% SR
• 25 of 31 cuts made in 2025 for 80.64% SR

I refer to cuts as he was in the wilderness from early July to late August when missing 4 x straight cuts. He rebounded @ Amgen Irish Open in early September with a T29.

See above the 12 straight cuts since.

Knowing the player he is it puzzles me how he missed a qualifying spot to obtain a 2026 PGA card is as he finished in 18^th with players up to 16^th securing a card. It is puzzling simply because he went toe to toe with both Rory, Tommy, Lowry, Hatton, Rai etc and he finished T5 in Abu Dhabi beating players like Jordan Smith (16^th & last PGA ticket) by 4 shots.

He finished 16^th in the final event on the DP World Tour but points transfer the top 16 overall but he again beat home Jordan Smith who qualified.

Of course, his good results in Australia were not included for 2025 points but are for 2026 so he is currently in 14^th.

It would not have not been easy to mentally rebound in Australia & perhaps I was too blunt on him in Australia I did watch every day @ both Abu Dhabi & DP Tour Championship @ Jumeirah golf course, he was very good around the greens.

It is time to step up here & one final factor he did look tired on the final event which was the DP Tour Champs, he had 2 weeks off into QLD then 1 week into Melbourne & it will be 5 weeks into this.

It would not surprise me if he is competing on day 4, there is no cut in Dubai but we will still need a nice clean start with little errors. Around $50 on betfair presently is more than fair but  will try and get matched at least $50.

This event intrigues me to who will fly out of the start and who makes inroads on days 3 & 4 with notoriously late improvers over the grinders.

Is our man from SAR & he shows glimpses each season on how good he is, unfortunately we often see a winning Thriston to a cut player at the next event.

TL has improved in the back end of 2025 and I often refer what was seen to The Stig way back @ US Open in June of 2025 where he finished a very respectable T12 in a MAJOR, it was his soft touch around the greens where he picked up

• +9.30 SG Total & +1.64 strokes gained came from his putter.

At the more recent –

• 1^st x DPWT Omega European Masters with -22 in late august with rounds of 63, 66, 63, 66

He shocked me as we had him selected in previous events in which he did not show up at all, even the 3 events prior he missed the cut, he wins in Swiss Alps with all the chasers clearly having their chances; after winning he was back to Mr Jekyll & Hyde with another 2 missed cuts September.

He is a player we know incredibly well but his hot/cold antics means we can miss him often but since those 2 missed cuts he has been a machine-

• 7 of 8 cuts made for 78.5 SR
• 5 of 7 event SG: Total in positive

That last stat of strokes gained total reflects his mood & I rate him like a Keith Mitchell or even a Wyndham Clark, if you watch golf like we do every week you will understand what I am alluding to.

So, on his day TL can shine, he did at this very event back in 2024 when he went all so close to winning when-

T2 x 2024 Dubai International with -18 with rounds of 65, 70, 67, 64

The T2 as featured numerous times above is a course indicator with Rory finishing T2 & both were only 1 shot from winning.

We know TL can hold his own OTT, if he is playing well on approach then his green play will come into effect, then hopefully his putter shines as his true strokes gained is nowhere a good guide as he is one of those players that misses putts by millimetres, he will then turn into a Keith Mitchell or Wyndham Clark type.

We want to see a smiling Thriston who is enjoying his golf, when he is in this mood he really is much better than his 65 in OWGR. A winner of 5 x DWPT & 3 others such as the Sunshine Tour in SAR.

The very 1^st day is all so important here with his attitude, At the current price of $48 is short as I have him closer to $65, why pick him then? Its all about his 1^st day effort & in this line up with only 60 pros, he is by far in the Top 30 not the bottom 30.

This Englishman has been quietly improving his game and fly's under the radar this week to some degree as we are only getting reduced odds due to field limit of 60, other than that he would be around $140 in most DPWT events.

One of the better-known putters in this small line up & he has now stretched it to-

• 5 x straight events with +SG: PUT stats

Watching him nice & relaxed at ABU DHABI Championships on the Yas links he shocked me with his T7 & -21, he shocked me as he can be known to start quickly like Marcus Armitage due to their putting prowess but then fade over the final 36 & 18 holes.

AS stuck to is guns with solid 4 days of-

• 65, 67, 67, 68 (-21)

All 4 days in positive SG of course but diving into all his 5 x past events shows us-

• 16 of 25 in SG: metrics all + such as OTT, APG, ARG, PUT & SG: Total = (5 metrics)
• Important to note of the 9 metrics in minus (-) 5 were less than -0.007 strokes lost
• AS has shown much more consistency in his last 25 rounds of golf

Is he capable of beating Rory & Tommy and company? If he can pick up shots like he did around the big greens on the Yas links course, he did finish only 4 shots off Tommy & Rai.

Yas links which was only in November of 2025 he was-

• 7^th in stroke avg with 66.75
• 6^th in Birdies with 6,25 per day
• 1^st in Par 3 scoring with 2.63 strokes
• 6^th in par 4 scoring with 3.80 strokes

In his latest effort in South Africa in early December in Sun City, yes the one with lions on the fairways.

• 10^th in SG: PUT
• 2^nd in Birdies with 5.75 each round

Around Dubai it will be those close to the pin which can sink a birdie, those carding par will be left behind, the winner will be at least +20 (avg -5 each day) & this is a grinding AS I have not seen for along time, he has won 4x DP World Tour and his results since July of 2025 well earned, he really has picked up his game.

Around $65 is about right considering he would be around $130 to $140 in a full field, players this week do not have to worry about the cut after 36 holes. I would wait to see if matched closer to the $80.

Another Englishmen who tried hard to run down recent winner Kristoffer Reitan @ the Nedbank Golf Challenge in SAR but after Reitan shot his 4^th or 5^th 63 or under on the 1^st day it made it hard for the pack to chase him down.

Reitan faltered on Day 4 with an uncharacteristic 72 as where DB finished strongly with his 66, now with him tied was recent double winner Jayden Schaper who mind you we selected a few times in 2025 with no Win so it did not shock but annoy us.

Schaper did what not many have done & that is T2, 1^ST, 1^ST in 3 events, look he had loads of ability and stats to match he just could not get it done, what changed, not sure as we watch plenty of videos, either way it is strong form to finish so close to him.

DB has-

• 8 x straight SG: APG stats in positive
• Better than 55% in +SG: OTT-this course is far easier
• 7 straight cuts made in late 2025 to 2026

He keeps showing glimpses of putting it all together and his recent close finished along with the fact he did finish T7 @ KLM Open & then a T3 @ Italian Open showed if he starts well he can compete.

Despite the $100 on betfair, more likely $150 & he is more likely a Top 10 around $ 4.50, he has won 2 x DP events so deserves to get his chance, I have Calum Hill ahead of him and Nacho as well. He is the speculator of the selections as he has the ability must go 72 holes consistently.

His best is good enough.

We selected this Italian back at a recent PGA event in US in November.

His last 3 events have all been in PGA events-

• T34 x PGA Butterfield Bermuda Championships with -1
• T27 x PGA WWT Championships with -17
• T42 x PGA Bank of Utah Championships with -8

Why Molinari is included is he has long been known for his strongest skill set, Putting, Now to be fair and just he has been playing mostly in PGA events through 2025 & from the 14 x PGA events made 7.

Normally we would not be fussed about making 50% of cuts made but this is the PGA and even in this line up there is over 75% who have yet to taste success in a PGA event.

FM has won 2 x PGA events along with another 8 x DPWT events, his latest win was back in 2019 but he did stretch the leaders in 2024 Dubai Invitational when-

5^th @ -15 with 68, 70, 68, 63 but importantly +12.50 strokes gained.

His 63 (-8) was impressive on the final day when picking up +6.78 strokes, FM can be dangerous especially if he is in the mood around the greens. I will be tuned in watching both events this week.

His current price of $140 we consider too short, he does not bring the more recent good form that many above him bring, he will suit the big greens but his fair price is closer to $200 even in this condensed field of 60.

This Scotsman has the habit of bobbing up like he did more recently when winning the Joburg Open back in early March.

He is probably the best putter in this line up, proven each event-

• 22 of 29 events in +SG: PUT
• 7 of his last 8 events he made the cut 87.5%
• 10 of his last 11 in +SG: PUT with the avg +1.27 each round
• In 2025 @ Abu Dhabi HSBC, he was +2.42 strokes gained per round in putting

To give you an idea compared to Tommy who was +1.38 strokes gained per round. CH still was able to finish with a -17, he cannot compete with the big guns OTT as CH was losing -0.68 in driving, he also was only 61^st in driving accuracy with only 58.93% of fairways found.

With big wide spacious fairways most players should at least hit 65 to 70%, they only have to focus on quality not distance.

He was also good on approach the green-

• 10^th in GIR with 86.11%
• 1^st in SG: PUT with a monster +2.42 strokes gained each day

His T2G was dragged into minus strokes due to his average efforts OTT, he did however manage excellent overall OTT stats throughout most of 2025 with-

• 9 of his last 15 he was less than -strokes lost under -0.80.

I would always prefer a tradesman around the greens, especially as this course has wide open fairways, his focus has to be just on quality, his APG play handy and we know he is lethal with the putter.

He could shock if it all comes together, remember Aldrich Potgieter? A Big driver, finally went 4 days as a freak iron and putter player, we have not seen that since but any player can run hot, I prefer better putters than drivers off the tee especially around desert courses.

Rico Hoey, we have long been supporters of his craft, he was 2nd in T2G across all PGA players, only 1 better in Scott Scheffler, since changing to the broomstick putter his game has improved out of sight, just saying players can improve their lesser skills.

I think at current odds near $270 at time of summary is value for possibly the best proven putter in the field.

I had to include 6'1 Spaniard "Nacho" who, not to be confused with his brother Manuel, both play well. But it was not hard to miss his efforts but on watching the duel with Tommy Fleetwood & Aaron Rai at the 2025 ABU Dhabi HSBC in November - Elvira was going for broke.

His result-

• T7 with -21 with rounds of 65, 68, 65, 69 - this is a par 72 course.
• He was -18 after 54 holes
• Day 1 he was in T7 with -7 | the leader Tommy was -8
• Day 2 he was in T6 with -14 | the leaders Tommy & Rai were -14
• Day 3 he was in 4^th with -18 | the leader Rai was -20
• Day 4 he was in T7 with -21- | the winner was Rai with -25

As you can see on Day 3 he must have given himself a chance being only 2 shots adrift from leader Aaron Rai, who for the record played some terrific shots, he out played Tommy around the greens & on approach.

Nacho was hard to miss as I know the name well following golf religiously each week but turning for the final 18 holes there were 5 players within 3 shots of Rai & a further 5 a further 2 shots adrift (total = 5 shots).

I must tip my hat to Nacho as he stood there and was having his best go, he did finish T2 the event previously in South Korea.

• T2 x DPWT Genesis Championships @ South Korea with -8

Look he does go around @ odds on Betfair better than $270 & many will not give him a look in, but he has won 6 events overall with 2 x DPWT & 4 other in 1 of the feeder organisations for the DPWT in Challenge Tour.

All his SG metrics have improved since his T29 @ Amgen Irish Open in early September, with his Putting the most improved followed by APG where he has reduced lost shots by 50% on avg and even his ARG play has improved to only just losing -0.30 shots on avg compared to -1.85 shots lost around the greens.

If he brings his T7 from Abu Dhabi he can give this a shake, apart from the obvious faves this event is set up for a long shot, if they do not win they will go awfully close at odds.

Finally with more $$$ in the Betfair pool as there is still at least 40 hours till tee-off odds will drift for those bigger odds players.