PGA Charles Schwab Challenge 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

As we have seen with recent players that were tipped previously in Aaron Rai, Kristoffer Reitan & Wyndham Clark winning, it is a matter of players clicking & with Rai & Clarke they had incredible final days which is when you want to card a low round not on day 1.

RF had been going well before the PGA Championships with-

• T2 x PGA Truist Championships with rounds of 74, 63, 69, 65 for -13
• T9 x PGA Cadillac Championships with rounds of 69, 70, 72, 68 for -9
• T8 x PGA RBC Heritage with rounds of 65, 69, 69, 70 for -11

This course has teeth and around Colonial it’s not a bad thing if you are hitting pars on most holes, all the above events were difficult courses as well.

Previously tipped and we like him because-

• 18^th x SG: Total
• 38^th x SG: T2G
• 48^th x SG: OTT
• 39^th x Driving accuracy @ 62.05%
• 51^st x Greens in regulation @ 67.42%
• 44^th x SG: APG
• 112^th x SG: ARG
• 20^th x SG: PUT
• 10/12 cuts made for 83.3%

At the recent events we tipped him in he had far better APG stats that his total of 2026 shows.

RF is very familiar with Colonial with recent results of-

• 2025 x T16
• 2024 x T37
• 2023 x T6
• 2022 x T57

We think he is playing some of his best golf of late & he opened around $26 on betfair on Monday night (Australian time) and has held firm with mostly $28 available on betfair now. If you can get matched above +$30 that’s a fair value.

The fragile Scotsman (as was Clark x fragile) has really focused on his driving of late and it shows.

• 21^st x SG: Total
• 69^th x SG: T2G
• 10^th x SG: OTT
• 29^th x DA @ 62.68%
• 111^th x GIR @ 64.58%
• 138^th x SG: APG
• 68^th x SG: ARG
• 8^th x SG: PUT
• 9/11 cuts made for 81.8%

The only cuts this year for Bobby Mac have been @ both Majors, I am happy to excuse those as he had a nice little stretch from the Sony Open in Hawaii in early April right through his T2 @ PGA Valero Open in early April.

At Colonial your really need players to find fairways and despite his overall 138^th in APG he has bettered that in 6 of his last 8 events.

At PGA Valero he was good with iron & wedges for

• 5^th x SG: OTT @ +3.207
• 4^th x SG: APG @ +5.625
• 39^th x SG: ARG @ +0.230
• 25^th x SG: Putting @ +3.112

All we need from RM is to keep his frustrations in check & he opened around $28 on Monday & has remained very firm, he was T6 here in 2025 which was only his 2^nd go around @ Colonial. There is a lot of $30 to be matched on betfair currently

JJ has been on our radar for a while and sure we missed him when he won PGA Valero but sometimes when players go away and work on other aspects of their game it greatly affects what they were doing so well previously.

• 49^th x SG: Total
• 14^th x SG: T2G
• 44^th x SG: OTT
• 20^th x DA @ 64.52%
• 49^th x GIR @ 67.64%
• 8^th x SG: APG
• 61^st x SG: ARG
• 155^th x SG: PUT
• 7/13 cuts made for 53.8%

Only making just above 50% of cuts in 2026 is a slight concern as we like our players to sit above 70% & especially so when they are under $50 to win.

The focus this week will be for JJ to improve his putting stats, in his last few events he has only missed by 1 or 2 putts to be in positive strokes gained.

With his accuracy off the tee, he can set up his 2^nd shot on the smaller and faster greens, his confidence will go through the roof if he can sink a few early with the flat stick.

From his last 4 starts around Colonial, he has had mixed results with a WD in 2022, T63 in 2023, Cut in 2024 & last year a good T6 but we could easily make a case that his last 12 months has been the best of his career.

This is what we sent out as Late Mail for the PGA Truist for JJ-

• 25^th x SG: Off the Tee @ +0.758
• 21^st x SG: Approach to Green @ +1.567
• 48^th x SG: Around the Green losing -0.672 strokes
• 2^nd x SG: Putting @ +5.333
• T6 x SG: Total @ +6.986
• 3^rd @ Driving Accuracy @ 83.33% (35/42)
• T24 x Greens in Regulation @ 66.67% (36/54)
• T9 x Sand Saves @ 80.00% (4/5)
• 3^rd x Scrambling @ 83.33% (15/18)
• T23 x Birdies @ 12
• T4 x Pars @ 39
• T2 x Bogeys @ 3

JJ has been very safe and only has 3 bogeys over 54 holes, 1 of those occurred on day 3.

I like what we saw on Day 3 and JJ is already a winner earlier defeating our own Michael Kim but usually when JJ starts his form, he will hold it over 6 to 8 weeks and on day 3 we saw his putter come to life-

• 2^nd x SG: Putting @ +3.30 strokes gained

This lifted his overall strokes gained total to +4.71 for the day & although his 65 (-6) was good he looks more likely to peak on day 4 than those mentioned earlier in the JT summary.

Over the 54 holes we have seen more than 65% of the field finding either water or in the woods, I honestly shake my head at some of the errors, JJ has been good so far with=

• Day 1 x driving accuracy @ 71.43% (10/14)
• Day 2 x driving accuracy @ 92.86% (13/14)
• Day 3 x driving accuracy @ 85.71% (12/14)

All eyes will be on his putter early & JJ opened around $32 and now sits firmly at $36 on betfair, try and push the price and see if you can get matched above +$40

• 12^th x SG: Total
• 42^nd x SG: T2G
• 128^th x SG: OTT
• 108^th x DA @ 56.97%
• 77^th x GIR @ 65.99%
• 39^th x SG: APG
• 26^th x SG: ARG
• 5^th x SG: PUT
• 8/12 cuts made for 66.6%

In previous analysis of AB we sent out the concern is where he puts it off the tee, this course does have dog legs and from all I have dive in deep finding the left rough in fairways is worse than the right side,

• the differential is 15%

so if you are going to miss the fairway you want it to be on the right side, we did highlight that in his stats when we selected him for the PGA Championships-

• 50% of fairways @ PGA Cadillac (28/56)
• 50% of fairways @ RBC Heritage (35/56)
• 79% of fairways @ PGA The Players (43/56)

Of note his last event was the Cadillac and he has had an easy season in 2026, but he was 1st in driving accuracy @ The Players which was won by Cam Young so very good form and Cam is no slouch off the tee.

I mentioned an easy season for AB, his results have been excellent-

T3, T6, T16, 1st, T13, T16, T23 from 10 events he has made the cut in 7 but it is the results that follow that are scary good.

As where we will watch and see how JJ goes with the putter, that is of no concern for AB but all eyes will be where he puts off the tee.

Another player in which The Stig & MJ can excuse for his fail @ the recent major, after opening up on betfair around $40 there is not much support and that sees him drift to an acceptable $48 currently, with little interest try and get matched for +$55 as that sems a realistic price at this stage, he did finish T22 here last year but his game is on a much higher level now.

After some brilliant rounds @ Truist (63 & 68) he has elevated in our opinion, but it is his-

• 4 x T10 in 2026 +
• 8 x T25 in 2026

2026 PGA stats-

• 91^st x SG: Total
• 101^st x SG: T2G
• 97^th x SG: OTT
• 42^nd x DA @ 61.85%
• 124^th x GIR @ 63.89%
• 74^th x SG: APG
• 127^th x SG: ARG
• 58^th x SG: PUT
• 12/16 cuts made for 75%

We were looking at Ryo Hisatsune but despite him playing very well thus far he is short odds to win his 1^st PGA event so we did the versus comparison between these 2 players and MM came out on top.

What is also remarkable is the results from MM yet his overall stats look average at first look for his overall 2026 but as we do we dive deep in in his latest @ PGA Truist-

• 49^th x SG: OTT losing -0.531 strokes
• 12^th x SG: APG @ +3.315
• 47^th x SG: ARG losing -1.083 strokes
• 7^th x SG: Putting @ +4.770
• T10 x SG: Total @ +6.472

He was also a very good T4 in GIR @ 70.83%, he can get on a roll early around these faster greens & he has only ventured to Colonial once in 2025 where he was cut but again he is playing his best golf of late & after opening around $55 & searching for his 2^nd win on tour there is plenty of $65 on betfair, I did see $75 yesterday so try above +$75.

If ST can put 4 consistent days together then he can rocket up the FedEx rankings as he can play some superb golf 2 of the 4 days, he just needs to remain focused all 4 days.

• 47^th x SG: Total
• 54^th x SG: T2G
• 118^th x SG: OTT
• 125^th x DA @ 54.93%
• 104^th x GIR @ 65.02%
• 69^th x SG: APG
• 14^th x SG: ARG
• 61^st x SG: PUT
• 14/15 cuts made for 93.3%

We have highlighted how good ST could be when selected in previous events in 2026, oddly he partnered Aaron Rai @ PGA Zurich in New Orleans and he out played AR there and look where Rai ended up.

ST has not played this course in recent years which may work in his favour this time & he has been building but without diving too deep into Analysis at one point in this event he will be up near the top, it is all about consistency with him, After opening around $80 on betfair he did drift out to $110 yesterday and I see he is back into $90.

I would suggest try & get matched for +$100.

RG is trending nicely for this & future events in the coming months.

• 50^th x SG: Total
• 39^th x SG: T2G
• 50^th x SG: OTT
• 32^nd x DA @ 62.40%
• 32^nd x GIR @ 68.38%
• 12^th x SG: APG
• 148^th x SG: ARG
• 80^th x SG: PUT
• 13/15 cuts made for 86.6%

His game is on point of late and his last 2 events would have greatly affected his overall 2026 stats, on a course which was incredibly difficult he finished T2 @ PGA American Express and his tee to green play is right up there with the current T40 in OWGR so all eyes are on RG this weekend and his consistent wedge & irons should see him contend well into the weekend.

He opened around $75 on betfair on Monday night and has slowly drifted but not alarmingly either with $90 easily available on betfair now, try above +$100.

The price issue is something The Stig & I discuss at great length, when first trying to get matched put 50% of your play on higher, if it does not get matched then hit it all on the suggested price, try first though for higher, prices will change from the time selections are received to tee off as there is often 36 to 48 hours in between.

We really like him this weekend, he should give us a great site over the 4 days.

It was an interesting interview of SJ after his 64 on day 3. He was quoted a saying “my putter has never been the problem, it is my driving, so when I drive the ball well, I play well”

• On day 4 he was 66^th in Driving accuracy @ 35.71% (5/14)

That says it all above, how does a pro find only 35% of fairways, comical!

What PGT sent out last week-

• 68^th x SG: Total
• 88^th x SG: T2G
• 97^th x SG: OTT
• 154^th x DA @ 48.51%
• 129^th x SG: APG
• 116th x Greens in Regulation @ 63.96%
• 24^th x SG: ARG
• 44^th x SG: PUT

We have tipped German SJ a few times now, but he was playing super golf last week until it caught up with him, the course had teeth and some of the world’s best struggled, SJ was the leader early.

His strengths lay once he gets on the greens, this is where he can pick up the field this week in Texas.

SJ has also made most cuts in 2026-

• 8/12 cuts in 2026 (67%)

Last week @ PGA Championships he was-

• Rounds of 67, 70, 73, 69 ended the tournament @ -1
• 9^th x SG: Putting @ +5.241 strokes gained

Again, last week where driving was super important, Cam Smith only found 3/14 fairways on the final day, this is far easier and the rough is nowhere as thick, once on the greens SJ can go to work and from all players selected T10 he represents significant value around $8.40 on betfair to T10.

This week-

Around Colonial it will 100% depend on what & where he ends up on the fairways, the only day he was good with his tee shots was on day 1 @ PGA CJ Cup @ +70% driving accuracy, all 3 days after he sat below 40%.

Why back up this week?

The rest of his game is going well, and he is one of the more reliable putters on tour and he has had some good days at both the PGA Championships (Major) & PGA CJ Cup along with 3 x T10 in 2026, he only needs to control his tee shots.

After opening around $90 there is plenty of $110 on betfair, seeing he needs to focus on his driver despite the price we do like others more, Putting though most players struggle with & as we saw with recent winners, if they can get the putter going it is there weekend.

JS we sent out not to long ago and he was on fire last week but his last few events he has been in positive strokes gained in 8 of the 10 metrics we measure, results show-

• 4^th x PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson
• T19 x PGA Myrtle Beach Classic

At CJ Cup last week which we have to consider how easy it was to score, there were many that hit rounds of 60 which is not common as well but still he did what 60% of the field could not and that is go low rounds.

2026 PGA stats-

• 104^th x SG: Total
• 68^th x SG: T2G
• 126^th x SG: OTT
• 120^th x DA @ 55.50%
• 15^th x GIR @ 69.92%
• 14^th x SG: APG
• 96^th x SG: ARG
• 138^th x SG: PUT
• 5/10 cuts made for 50%

Last week JS did shoot 61 & 63 but he also carded a 63 @ PGA Texas Childrens Open and a 61 in the shoot our format in New Orleans, his game has improved significantly hence why we picked him many events back and even in 2025 he was on our radar.

Last week-

• 25^th x SG: OTT @ +1.521
• T24 x DA @ 69.64% (39/56)
• T7 x GIR @ 79.17% (57/72)
• 3^rd x SG: APG @ +8.168
• 25^th x SG: ARG @ +1.461
• 29^th x SG: PUT @ +2.061
• 4^th x SG: Total @ +13.210
• T24 x DA @ 69.64% (39/56)

Yes, the course was mostly easy to score on and may have made some players look far better than they were considering we watch all players every week but he has been hot of late and if he can just control his driving then his irons will take him along way this week.

I was shocked to see his price today, there was $220 yesterday on betfair so he is now into $130, I would suggest waiting for the pools to settle and try getting matched well above +$150 to $200.

TM is clearly having his best season on tour and in 9 events has 5 good results, see below

• 45^th x SG: Total
• 81^st x SG: T2G
• 23^rd x SG: OTT
• 141^st x DA @ 52.40%
• 139^th x GIR @ 62.81%
• 144^th x SG: APG
• 50^th x SG: ARG
• 30^th x SG: PUT
• 9/11 cuts made for 81.8%

Those 5 good results as mentioned above have-

• T14 x PGA CJ Cup with rounds 62, 69, 69, 66 for -18
• T17 x PGA Myrtle Beach with rounds of 68, 67, 71, 64 for -10
• T20 x PGA Zurich with rounds of 66, 68, 64, 68 for -23
• T2 x PGA Cognizant with rounds of 67, 67, 67, 68 for -15
• T56 x PGA American Express with rounds of 70, 68, 66, 70 for -14

Also, of the 9 events he has been under par in 7 of those 9 events and apart from his T2 earlier and he did push both Shane Lowry & winner Nico he also has 4 x T25 in 2026.

His best is good enough and his 2026 overall stats are misleading as last week he was good in all strokes gained metrics, again the course was easier than here, but we have seen very similar in those better results to date-

Last week-

• 22^nd x SG: OTT @ +2.117
• 42^nd x SG: APG @ +0.805
• 32^nd x SG: ARG @ +1.008
• 10^th x SG: PUT @ +4.281
• T14 x SG: Total @ +8.210

As we know with golfers it is all about confidence, the results are flowing for TM & after opening around $110 he is pretty firm settling @ $130 on betfair currently. A very fair price but he will be looking for win #2 on tour, if he plays his best golf he can threaten.

It would be of no surprise to anyone that we @ PGT are fans of MK, after giving us a great watch @ $220 when JJ won @ Valero Open.

Since Valero he has produced some pretty good rounds-

• 62 @ PGA RBC Heritage (-9 on the final day when not many could go low)
• 65 @ PGA Cadillac
• 67 @ PGA Championships
• 12 of his last 24 rounds have been under 70.

Now the odd, good round does not mean much as at least 3 of 4 does but he has been building and it all gets back to when his putter is on fire.

Playing far greater than his 2026 stats-

• 84^th x SG: Total
• 125^th x SG: T2G
• 147^th x SG: OTT
• 127^th x DA @ 54.84%
• 148^th x GIR @ 61.45
• 107^th x SG: APG
• 51^st x SG: ARG
• 11^th x SG: PUT
• 10/14 cuts made for 71.4%

Are The Stig & MJ concerned about his hit or miss driving? Yes, but only a 20% concern as we saw recently @ Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage)-

• 49^th x SG: OTT @ +0.059
• 4^th x SG: APG @ +3.158
• 9^th x SG: ARG @ +1.495
• 2^nd x SG: PUT @ +3.508
• 1^st x SG: Total @ +8.220
• T59 x Driving Accuracy @ 50.00% (7/14)

Now the above stats are his low round on day 4 and he achieved this by still only finding 50% of fairways, personally I would love him to find more this week but like other that we have selected such as REITAN, RAI, CLARKE & others they are trending in our own database well & on discussion with The Stig we will revert to outright win only.

The T10 & T20 markets just get so diluted plus those players can be chosen to win instead, if its working why change?

MK has 2 good results around Colonial from the last 3 years-

• T16 in 2025
• T6 in 2023

We will carefully watch he & Bhatia off the Tee, perhaps with one eye open & say a prayer as they tee off, I would personally prefer a good putter over an accurate driver as it is rare to get all strokes gained metrics to fire, when they do we witness a Wyndham Clark doing what we knew he was capable of but he lost his way last few recent events.

MK opened on Monday night (AEST) around $90, there has been little support and @ $130 we like him, however I see not much is being matched and there is an opportunity to wait and see if we can grab more like $150 to $170 on betfair.

We keep mentioning that around Colonial par is King, so you just do not want to many bogeys on day 1 as it’s a tough course to give shots away to then make up.

The proven PGA winner from Argentina is a true grinder, already winning x 2 but it is usually around this time of the year when the big guns stick to the Majors and across the pond that he puts in some big strides.

Personally, he should be +$200 but I am sure some PGA analyst probably picked him hence the firming on betfair as punters shop for value.

I say “Grinder” but since he joined the PGA tour in 2016, he has amassed $25’000’000 which is not a bad average per year over this his 10th season.

• 87 x Top 25s from 206 events where he has made cut = 42.2% SR

Again highlighting why he has been termed by us as a “Grinder” that’s a handy record @ 33 yrs of age.

• 145^th x SG: Total
• 119^th x SG: T2G
• 103^rd x SG: OTT
• 13^th x DA @ 65.99%
• 106^th x GIR @ 64.81%
• 94^th x SG: APG
• 131^st x SG: ARG
• 98^th x SG: PUT
• 6/13 cuts made for 46.1% (that is not our preferred)

We watch a lot of golf @ PGT and sometimes players really look far better than what their stats reveal, stats are from true history but we have said it previously “some players miss 3 or 4 puts by 25mm or less each round, that would change the overall significantly, or the player that finally finds the middle of the fairway and produces a lovely gap wedge onto the green only to miss the putt, that perfect lead up is recorded as history but it can quickly fall away as the round progresses.

In other words, “we see much more by our own eyes” than what stats record.

Yes, the current price of $140 on betfair is considered by us as too short, he should be +$200 in this line up but wait overnight for the pools to grow on betfair as we should be able to grab between $170 to $190.

EG is a past winner so that does attract attention for the “horses for courses” scenario.

Best of his last 5 years around Colonial-

• T16 x 2025
• 1st x 2023
• T8 x 2021

Prices are only suggestions as we cannot guarantee but always look at bookmaker odds especially for those players under $50 sometimes sportsbet & bet365 offer a few points more on players around that $20 to $35 bracket.

TH is on a surge, how long it goes for is yet to be seen but if his past few results are anything to go by it looks like he has solved a problem with his irons & putter.

• 138^th x SG: Total
• 143^rd x SG: T2G
• 155^th x SG: OTT
• 103^rd x DA for 57.04%
• 107^th x GIR @ 64.78%
• 61^st x SG: APG
• 142^nd x SG: ARG
• 94^th x SG: PUT
• 11/16 cuts made for 68.75% (excellent for Hoges)

Another player who really has flipped his average stats in 2026 and has now-

• 5 of his last 8 events in positive strokes gained (the loss of strokes were minor)
• 6 straight cuts made

More so his stats have reflected a resurgence in his last 2 events where last week where scoring was possible @ TPC Craig Ranch-

• 39^th x SG: OTT @ +0.025
• T40 x DA @ 64.29% (36/56)
• T7 x GIR @ 79.17% (57/72)
• 4^th x SG: APG @ +7.241
• 59^th x SG: ARG losing -1.249 strokes
• T12 x SG: PUT @ +4.194
• T6 x SG: Total @ +10.210

We must highlight that it was much easier scoring conditions last week than players will face this week @ Colonial, in saying that he did play incredibly well also @ PGA Championships for a final score of EVEN Par with a steady game-

• 57^th x SG: OTT losing -0.828 strokes
• 49^th x SG: APG @ +1.096
• T27 x SG: APG @ +1.426
• 19^th x SG: PUT @ +3.788
• T26 x SG: Total @ +5.482

The above was in a major & many good players struggled with Aronimink, it was a nice reward for Hoges on the back of more seasoned play and he did shoot 61 & 64 in New Orleans.

His game has never looked better and so far in 2026 he has 3 x T10 with 4 x T25 so a good push this weekend will see bigger events on the horizon.

What we want to see from Hoges this weekend is maintaining his new putting game which went on a streak back in January @ Sony Open right through to Pebble Beach (5 straight events) with good putting numbers. After opening around $50 on betfair late Monday night he has continued to drift to his current price around $170, A lot of $110 to $170 on betfair is not being matched & I can see a few @ $190 & $200 which I think +$200 is fair even with his current form streak.

MH we were tracking most weeks & often changed where he sat in our database, I likened him to a Rickie Fowler & even a Wyndham Clark, they all are good players who were out of form but had shown glimpses of their former strong skill sets.

2026 PGA stats

• 125^th x SG: Total
• 133^rd x SG: T2G
• 81^st x SG: OTT
• 94^th x DA @ 57.49%
• 141^st x GIR @ 62.75%
• 131 st x SG: APG
• 122^nd x SG: ARG
• 69^th x SG: PUT
• 9/13 cuts made for 69.2%

MH ticks the making cuts criteria as we like our players to be around that 70% (minimum) and apart from failing at the most recent major, PGA Championships he has been solid.

Since the PGA Bank of Utah, in late October 2025 where driving accuracy was imperative MH has been good in most strokes gained metrics, including-

• 10 from 10 events when making cut in + SG: PUT for 100%

He also boast a good +70% from 10 events in APG and 8 from 10 events in OTT, which definitely belies his overall 2026 stats according to PGA website, So far in 2026 he has had runs of 4 straight events after being cut twice, he missed the cut at the major recently but that could be a blessing as he has now had 2 weeks to freshen up leading into this.

MH his best around Colonial-

• T9 x 2023
• T23 x 20222

We just get the feel that is he can get his confidence high like Rickie Fowler has then he should be able to appear high up on the leaderboard over this weekend. His scoring average has improved & of his 36 full rounds he has 21 under 70 for 58.3%, this can improve easily as MH does sit currently @ 69.6 for his tour Avg-

We are ignoring his overall 2026 stats as at times he just looks like he is near clicking with his game, I missed this weeks edition of “On the Range” 1^st in 2026 as would have loved to of seen him warming up but he is not under any injury clouds so hopefully he starts doing what we are seeing.

After opening around $140 on betfair there has been no support & his current $210 on betfair is more than acceptable, there are at least 30 players between $60 to $150 that should not be below him, he is a winner of 6 x PGA and like a few of late they can turn it around quickly.