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PGA BMW Championship 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

Course

Bellerive Country Club

Location

St. Louis, MO

Date

20 August 2026Starts 9:03 am CDT (event local)

2026-08-20

America/Chicago

This week’s free pick

Our free pick for BMW Championship 2026 is Viktor Hovland at 33/1(+3300).

Course Overview

The countdown to the PGA TOUR Championships with the BMW Championship the week before setting up who will be crowned PGA Champion for 2026.

In 2025 the BMW Championship was played at Caves Valley Golf Club & the 2026 edition returns to which last hosted the BMW in 2008.

Bellerive last hosted the 2018 PGA Championship, but the history of Bellerive Country Club begins well over a century ago, in 1897, when it first opened its doors as a modest nine-hole course in north St. Louis, shared among just 166 founding members.

As the club grew, the membership officially incorporated in 1910. Seeking a name steeped in local history, they chose to honour Louis St. Ange de Bellerive, the last French commander in North America. That same pivotal year, the club relocated to a new course in Normandy designed by Scottish architect Robert Foulis, a location they would proudly call home for the next half-century.

By 1955, visionary members Hord Hardin and Clark Gamble recognized the need for a larger footprint and spearheaded a movement to relocate the club further west. They brought in the legendary golf course architect Robert Trent Jones Sr., who hand-picked a sprawling prime farm location in Ladue. After years of careful shaping and planning, this new course- affectionately dubbed the “Green Monster of Ladue”– officially opened to the membership on Memorial Day in 1960.

It did not take long for the “Green Monster” to capture the attention of the golfing world.

Just 5 years after opening, in 1965, Bellerive made history by becoming the youngest course ever to host the U.S. Open. The tournament was a thriller, concluding with South African Gary Player defeating Kel Nagle in a playoff. Not only did Player complete his career Grand Slam with this victory, but he also generously donated his winnings to cancer research and junior golf, leaving a legacy at the club.

That unforgettable U.S. Open paved the way for decades of world-class championship golf. Bellerive proudly hosted the inaugural U.S. Mid-Amateur Championship in 1981, allowing St. Louis native Jim Holtgrieve to claim victory on home soil. In 1992, the course challenged the game’s best once again during the PGA Championship, where Nick Price captured his very first major title. While the club was slated to host the American Express World Golf Championship in September 2001, the event was understandably cancelled following the tragic events of 9/11.

Major championship golf triumphantly returned to Ladue in 2004 for the U.S. Senior Open, where Peter Jacobsen bested a stellar field to win his first major. Recognizing the need to keep the historic course up to modern championship standards, Bellerive underwent a massive, year-long renovation shortly after. In a fitting tribute to the course’s origins, the 2006 project was entrusted to Rees Jones, the son of the original architect.

The refreshed course immediately proved its mettle. It hosted the 2008 BMW Championship during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, delivering Camilo Villegas his 1st career Tour victory. Five years later, the 74th Senior PGA Championship arrived at Bellerive. This 2013 event cemented the club’s place in golf royalty, making Bellerive only the third club in history to host all four men’s traveling major championships. The club’s historic run continued in August 2018, when it was granted the distinct honour of hosting the 100th PGA Championship, drawing the eyes of the sporting world as top golfers battled for the Wanamaker Trophy.

Today, Bellerive stands as one of the premier venues for professional golf in the Midwest. Remaining true to its core mission, the club continues to be the preeminent family country club in St. Louis, seamlessly blending top-tier dining and social experiences with a nationally recognized golf course. Looking ahead, Bellerive is poised to write its next great chapters, preparing to welcome back the BMW Championship in 2026, followed by the highly anticipated Presidents Cup in 2030, where the pride of Missouri will once again be on full display for the world.

 

The Course

Par 72

7547 yards

Tee– Zoysia grass

Fairways– Zoysia grass

Greens- A-4 Bentgrass

 

Hole 1 – Par 4 · Yards 425

Bellerive’s opening hole is a straight line 425-yard par 4. The tee shot doesn’t require length, as the fairway bunkers squeeze the landing area right at 300 yards, but you will want to find the fairway to access the hole locations, especially on the left side of the green. You will see plenty of less-than-driver selections off the tee all week.

Hole 2 – Par 4 · Yards 410

change in the renovation of 2006, being transformed from a long dogleg left, to a shorter but more versatile short par-4. The most recent enhancement to the hole features a dramatically elevated tee box, clearly introducing the players to the water feature and penalty area that snugly guards the left side of the fairway. With the fairway gently sloped left, with rough heights cut low bordering the water, encouraging any ball hit down that side to trundle into the pond. You will see a variety of clubs utilized to find the fairway, which then gives the player a short-iron or a wedge to go after the pin.

Hole 3 – Par 3 · Yards 148

Being the shortest hole on the course players will look to birdie but water surrounds much of the green, making the right and back hole locations dangerous. If the cup is cut over the left ridge, there will be a good chance to see a hole-in-one that day.

Hole 4 – Par 4 · Yards 521

Played as a par-5 for the Bellerive members, this long dogleg left will be set up as a 500+ yard par-4. Most players will be able to hit their tee shots past the left bunker but will need to slide just left of the two large bunkers guarding the right side of the fairway. The heavily bunkered green, although a good size target approaches to the front and back right side of the green will play as birdies. If the hole location is back left, very few players will be able to take on that challenge. A risk to reward hole.

Hole 5 – Par 4 · Yards 471

This is one of the classic Robert Trent Jones par 4’s. Any kind of par will be happily accepted with the rare birdie chance coming when the hole is cut on the left side of a massive green. All tee shots kick to the right, towards an always thick and healthy rough. the left rough is even more hazardous. Finding the fairway off the imperative on hole 5.

Hole 6 – Par 3 · Yards 213

This is the signature par 3 at Bellerive. In the 1965 U.S. Open, this hole played to an incredible 4.03 stroke average. The green has even shrunk a bit since the renovation, making the front of the green just as difficult to hit as the back right shelf. Hole locations cut in the middle swale always provide some excitement with tee shots feeding toward the cup. Par is exceptional.

Hole 7 – Par 4 · Yards 381

This is the shortest par-4 on the front side. The proper tee shot usually played with a wedge, the green is well guarded and undulated, making it difficult to control approach shots coming from outside the fairway.

Hole 8 – Par 5 · Yards 610

This hole underwent a slight change to the landing area. The left fairway bunker, which guarded the dogleg, has been removed, allowing players to take an aggressive line to hit the green in 2 shots. The creek that hugs the right side is now exposed, making golfers think twice when laying up for their second shot. This green offers a wide but shallow target. Any hole cut on the left side of the green is protected by two deep bunkers.

Hole 9 – Par 4 · Yards 433

You can take your pick between holes 5, 10, or 15 as to which is the toughest of the par 4s at Bellerive, but this hole might yield as many bogeys as any of those. At only 433 yards, it’s not the length that makes this hole so challenging. The classic uphill approach to the most complicated green on the course makes it impossible to gauge the right distance to be hole high. If the hole is not cut in the front bowl, players will have very few good birdie chances. This hole might offer some of the most interesting up-and-down attempts or lag putts during the round.

Hole 10 – Par 4 · Yards 508

The other ‘member par-5 turned par-4′ stands at 508 yards, with a sharp left turn at the fairway bunker. This will require the players to either play safety to the bend, which will leave them a mid-iron to a very wide, but shallow green. For those taking an aggressive line off the tee, they will have to avoid the bunker that guards the left elbow of the fairway. If successful, a short iron may give them a rare scoring opportunity on the 10th.

Hole 11 – Par 4 · Yards 355

A true risk/reward short par 4!  Players choosing to lay up short of the pond guarding the front right of the green will only need a mid-iron to do so.  This will leave the player with a wedge to a long, narrow green.  The risk taker will need a precise drive to hit the green.  However, the hole can also be played at distances from 275 to 355 yards, enticing more players to try to hit the green.

Hole 12 – Par 4 · Yards 452

the 12th provides one of the most visually appealing tee shots from an elevated perch and plays at 452 yards. Keep the ball out of the left fairway bunkers and it opens up the angle to the green. In 1992, Nick Price holed a 105-foot putt for birdie on route to victory at the PGA Championship, his first major title.

Hole 13 – Par 3 · Yards 156

Simply put, hole location means everything as to how tough this hole will play. If the flag is on the accessible left side of the green, plenty of birdies will follow. If the hole is cut back centre or right, a routine two-putt will be a tall task. The slopes and ridges in this large green make for quite a roller coaster ride when putting. Elite putters to the fore.

Hole 14 – Par 4 · Yards 410

This is the beginning of “The Ridge”, the gauntlet of finishing holes at Bellerive. Secluded back in the trees, the 14th challenges the player to hit a tee shot to a landing area guarded by bunkers on the right and deep rough on the left. The bombers will have to be accurate, as the fairway narrows. The green is so tucked around the corner that players hitting approaches from the left side might not be able to see their target. Birdies will come in bunches when the hole is placed on the front right of the green.

Hole 15 – Par 4· Yards 495

Another perfect example of a Robert Trent Jones par-4, the 15th is a tough par but a reasonable bogey. Quite long at 495 yards and usually into a prevailing southerly wind, a good tee shot gives a player a chance to hit a middle or long iron into this wide, but shallow, target. If you miss short right or go over this shallow green the steep right-to-left slope makes short pitches and chips very challenging from deep bunkers.

Hole 16 – Par 3 · Yards 237

Another tough hole on “The Ridge” at 237 yards and like the 15th into a prevailing southerly breeze, look for players to carve long irons and hybrids, into this large, elevated green. Just make a 3 here and be on your way. The front bunkers are no place to be as the unlucky player will have a hard time just seeing the flag stick from within the depths of the sand.

Hole 17 – Par 5 · Yards 597

The tee box has been relocated to the east side of the long creek that guards the hole through its entirety. In addition to that change, an additional 15-30 yards of potential tee selections may add to the challenge of a birdie. Best strategy is keep the tee shot left of the penalty area and then decide if negotiating the cross bunker at 70 or so yards is worth the risk… if up for the challenge, players can reach the green in two and make a late move up the leader board.

Hole 18 – Par 4 · Yards 457

A classic finishing hole, the 18th gives very little, accuracy off the tee and finding the fairway vital or otherwise, this may be the hardest green to hit on the entire course. The most exciting hole location on this green, is the middle-left swale that allows a player to fee the ball towards the hole. Otherwise, getting approach shots close for birdie may be at a premium on the closer. A par on the 18th is important to survive “The Ridge”.

The last 5 holes as we saw at the recent 2026 US Masters can make the difference, a very controlled game will be required.

What to Look For

Only the top 50 from Memphis compete here, making the field smaller but more elite. Bellerive’s demanding test rewards complete performers — elite tee-to-green ball-striking, strong short-game play, and Bentgrass putting ability all matter. Players who peak in August tend to compete strongly for the championship title.

Tips Coming: Full selections and analysis, from our chief analyst MJ, will be published Wednesday 19 August 2026 approx 3pm AEST ahead of the event tee-off.

STAKING: At PGT, we apply a strict and consistent staking strategy to every tip we publish. All published results on our site are calculated on the basis of one (1) unit per tip, unless otherwise stated. The actual dollar value of a unit (if any) is determined by each individual — it may be for a no-value bet with a friend, or $5 or $50. This methodology is for record-keeping and educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to bet or to bet in any particular way.
Competitor Tip Type Odds Units Result Rationale
Ludvig Aberg Win 21/1(+2100) 1.00 LOSS

We selected the Swede young gun last week & around TPC Southwind there was a major disadvantage if players could not find fairways, the prime example was Tommy Fleetwood who on day 4 could only find 4/14 fairways for a 28% strike rate.

The penalty was overwhelming for those that could not set up their 2nd wedge/iron shot, the event was littered with many who struggled.

LA finished T7 last week and his rounds of 68, 65, 74 & 67 were a testament to his off the tee play where he ranked-

  • 1st x SG: Off the Tee @ +5.006

Whilst we saw most of his drives find the fairway overall @ 51.79% (29/56) he did have highlights unlike the majority of the T20-

  • Day 1 x 67th/70 finding 3/14 fairways @ 21.43%
  • Day 2 x T10/70 finding 9/14 fairways @ 64.29%
  • Day 3 x T2/70 finding 11/14 fairways @ 78.57%
  • Day 4 x T47/70 finding 6/14 fairways @ 42.86%

The most telling day was his 74 (+4) on day 3 which contrasted with the 3 other days as he had no problems finding 78.57% of fairways but it was his 2nd & 3rd shot in which he really struggled, LA lost shots in 3 of the 4 metrics-

  • 63rd x SG: APG losing -2.224 strokes
  • 68th x SG: ARG losing -1.937 strokes
  • 60th x SG: PUT losing -4.294 strokes

It was far more than telling, it made no sense but on day 4 he corrected his wedge/iron play and he ranked 13th, 15th, 29th versus his +60th in all metrics the previous day.

There were players that were more suited to TPC Southwind last week who may struggle on this bigger course this week, some pf what we sent out for the **St Jude last week-

2026 PGA stats

  • 6th x SG: Total
  • 7th x SG: T2G
  • 22nd x SG: OTT
  • 58th x DA @ 61.78%
  • 14th x SG: APG
  • 23rd x GIR @ 68.89%
  • 51st x SG: ARG
  • 61st x SG: PUT
  • 14/17 cuts made in 2026 for 82.4%
  • 10th in FedEx Cup points

Simply put the best version of Ludvig has to turn up, we have mention in previous analysis of him that “watch for his quirks” before teeing off, you want to see a smiling & laughing with his caddie before he drives the ball, a fidgety LA is a concern and we have spotted it 80% and when he starts to his errand shots that have you shaking your head.

LA was sent out last week @ $30 on betfair, this week he is only $21 on betfair now, there is also a market without Scottie Scheffler, we did consider this market, but the odds were so diluted taking Scheffler out of the market, around $12.50 on bet365 & or $14 on sportsbet.

We will risk the full unit on taking on Scheffler this week @ $21 on betfair.

LA will be in the end of season PGA Tour Championships regardless of his result this week.

 

 

Matt Fitzpatrick Win 30/1(+3000) 1.00 LOSS

If timing & momentum is everything then MF is in the running for winning more events than any player on PGA Tour, he is aiming for 4 x wins in 2026.

2026 PGA stats

  • 2nd x SG: Total
  • 2nd x SG: T2G
  • 49th x SG: OTT
  • 16th x DA @ 67.49%
  • 2nd x SG: APG
  • 6th x GIR @ 70.95%
  • 3rd x SG: ARG
  • 72ndt x SG: PUT
  • 18/19 cuts made in 2026 for 94.7%
  • 2nd in FedEx Cup points

If comparing MF with LA then we expect greater consistency, Fitzy is generally considered a safer option than the Swede and we like him more than LA based on odds and he knows how to win events.

Once known as a better putter, it is fair to say Fitzy has improved other aspects of his game in late 2026 and into 2026.

From St Jude last week

  • 32nd x SG: OTT @ +0.361
  • T14 x Driving Accuracy @ 60.71% (34/56)
  • 30th x SG: APG @ +0.526
  • T18 x Greens in Regulation @ 61.11% (44/72)
  • 32nd x SG: ARG losing -0.140 strokes
  • 9th x SG: PUT +3.612
  • T12 x SG: Total @ +4.360

If we compare odds on the first 2 players selected, we personally will have these 2 swapped around, you know what you get due to MF Consistency, the only advantage LA has is length in driving distance over Fitzy, although not being penalised as much this week around Bellerive if not finding fairways you still have to be above +55% in driving accuracy.

The other factor is usually MF has less bogeys per event.

After opening around $28 on betfair he has found support mostly around $30 now, again confirming we are playing with Scheffler in the market, hopefully we have it right as in the W/O Scheffler markets MF is as low as $14.50 on bet365 & $18 on sportsbet.

If you prefer reducing risk then you can back our player picks in the W/O Scheffler market, personally we are prepared to risk due to more than 50% dilution in price, had it been less than 20% sure.

Another player that should have no pressure this week as he is firmly into the TOUR Championships.

 

 

 

Chris Gotterup Win 38/1(+3800) 1.00 LOSS

The New Jersey native is a player we come in & out for and it is all relevant to when we select him, bigger open courses are his forte, we compared CG with Cam Young this week as both are very similar with drivers (low & far) but we prefer CG this week due to his better putting overall.

So far Cam Young has lost shots in 7 of his last 9 events in putting.

2026 PGA stats

  • 9th x SG: Total
  • 19th x SG: T2G
  • 11th x SG: OTT
  • 143rd x DA @ 54.05%
  • 48th x SG: APG
  • 39th x GIR @ 68.89%
  • 96th x SG: ARG
  • 34tht x SG: PUT
  • 19/21 cuts made in 2026 for 90.5%
  • 7th in FedEx Cup points

LAST WEEK around TPC Southwind CG lost strokes in around the greens & putting, this is not his normal, we have seen in his last 12 of 14 events where he has positive strokes gained in putting, this is a major improvement.

This week his focus only needs to be finding the fairway and setting up his 2nd & 3rd shots.

From St Jude

  • 28th x SG: OTT @ +0.659
  • T26 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (32/56)
  • 27th x SG: APG @ +1.374
  • T4 x Greens in Regulation @ 66.67% (48/72)
  • T40 x SG: ARG losing -0.414 strokes
  • 36th x SG: PUT losing -0.260
  • T30 x SG: Total @ +1.360

We do prefer when CG is a chaser, and we are waiting for tee off times at time of summary so we would like to see a safe start sitting a few shots off the leaders with 36 holes to play, there are no cuts again right through to the end of the season, the best CG is where he is stalking.

After opening around $30 on betfair , there is plenty of +$34, we are playing with Scheffler in the market, hopefully we have it right as in the W/O Scheffler market, but Gotterup is around $22 on bet365 & lower on sportsbet @ $20.

Regardless of what CG does this week he qualifies for the PGA TOUR Championships.

Odds update to $38 as of 19th August @ 9am.

Viktor Hovland Win 38/1(+3800) 1.00 LOSS

The smiling Norwegian was in contention last week until some terrible errors saw his drop out of contention.

Some of what we sent out last week when VH was @ $48 @ St Jude-

2026 PGA stats

  • 26th x SG: Total
  • 20th x SG: T2G
  • 82nd x SG: OTT
  • 27th x DA @ 65.42%
  • 18th x SG: APG
  • 104th x GIR @ 66.17%
  • 38th x SG: ARG
  • 84th x SG: PUT
  • 12/16 cuts made in 2026 for 75%
  • 22nd in FedEx Cup points

The smiling Norwegian finally put it all together to defeat Scotti Scheffler @ PGA Travelers Championship in late June. It was a confidence boosting win as he was having mixed weeks, yet he was still relatively confident in all the interviews we watched before the victory.

VH had mentioned many times about the changes he had made in his game, and we all know that comes with time, also VH is not a player we often select either, off the top of my head maybe twice in the last 2 years, so we try and get him at the right time.

As mentioned in the late mail pick from last week “In the early hours of this morning, I had watched both Scheffler & Hovland tied for 1st @ -10, I nodded off because by the time I awoke Scheffler was at the 15th hole and Hovland had gone missing.”

The demise of Viktor on day 3 was his double bogey on hole 12 finding the water, he followed that up with a bogey on 13th & 15th & in that very short stretch had given back +4 shots.

The positive for VH fans is he played well for the first 36 holes, day 3 started the slide yet his overall figures for all 72 holes was very acceptable-

  • 55th x SG: OTT losing -1.852 strokes
  • 9th x SG: APG @ +3.587
  • 17th x SG: ARG @ +1.058
  • 29th x SG: PUT @ +0.566

Despite his woeful day 3 & day 4 play where he had a total of +6 (4 x bogeys + a double) & day 4 with +7 (5 x bogeys + a double) so yes he gave away 13 shots just over 36 holes, that is significant as he only gave back +3 shots in the first 36 holes.

Another positive is despite his demise over the last 36 holes he did sit an incredible-

  • 3rd x Greens in Regulation @ 68.06% (49/72)

VH was able to offset the +13 over the last 2 days with 9 birdies, however even if he had 50% pars then his overall score would have seen him finish in overall 2nd.

All eyes this week on his demeanour, it is why we cannot entertain Booby Mac who no doubt played his worst game of golf last week, also very unsportsmanlike to withdraw from the event after shooting 82 (+12), that deserves a sin bin for life as it is his temperament where we saw great improvement of late.

This week we should see a normal consistent effort from Viktor, after opening around $32 on betfair there was $40 available, He is around $38 now on betfair at time of summary, again confirming we are playing VH in the scheffler market, in the W/O Sheffler market he was a short as $23 on bet365 & $21 on sportsbet.

Too diluted in our opinion but just highlighting it is an option, we are thinking Scheffler was long overdue last week but his play was highlighted more so with no player really challenging him to put him under any pressure, **of the 69 players last week on day 4 there were only 21 players (30.4%) of players who shot under par.

 

VH just needs to get back to his previous efforts to mount a serious challenge, highly possible & he moved up 1 spot in FedEx Cup points from 23rd to 22nd, he looks very safe to qualify for the TOUR Championships (T30)

 

Wyndham Clark Win 38/1(+3800) 1.00 WIN

We left WC alone for a few events, he won his major in 2026, and we only again entertained him @ Genesis Scottish Open; he finished T13.

Luckily, we left him alone for both The Open & PGA Rocket Classic as he was CUT from both, but what we saw last week around a course that should have proved difficult for him was a lift in his game.

2026 PGA stats

  • 7th x SG: Total
  • 23rd x SG: T2G
  • 99th x SG: OTT
  • 123rd x DA @ 56.89%
  • 22nd x SG: APG
  • 103rd x GIR @ 65.95%
  • 13th x SG: ARG
  • 23rd x SG: PUT
  • 16/21 cuts made in 2026 for 76.2%
  • 5th in FedEx Cup points

What we saw & liked from WC last week-

St Jude-

  • 17th x SG: OTT @ +1.510
  • T63 x Driving Accuracy @ 42.86% (24/56)
  • 11th x SG: APG @ +3.119
  • T33 x Greens in Regulation @ 58.33% (42/72)
  • 24th x SG: ARG @ +0.252
  • 22nd x SG: PUT @ +1.478
  • T5 x SG: Total @ +6.360

What we like and similar to what we saw when he won the US Open in late June was his 1st shot off the tee along with his 2nd shot were not terrific yet he still managed to card par or under on all 4 days with 69, 66, 70, 68.

There are a few strong factors that can see WC challenge this weekend-

  • 5th in current streak @ 205 putts WITHOUT a 3 putt
  • 1st in Par 3 scoring

As we saw @ Shinnecock Hills GC he can still be wayard off the tee and pick up shots on the greens, of course a perfect scenario is WC finding 60% of fairways so his 2nd shot onto the green will be closer to hole proximity.

We just think this week now with his confidence back from his St Jude effort he can challenge, he needs to be in the right mood, we have highlighted the big change in his mental approach, but it is a big positive when all his skills are in positive strokes gained as was the case last week.

It is not an anomaly, his game was very good before his 2 cuts, it has returned.

WC opened around $34 on betfair and he has been supported just as well as Viktor Hovland with as much money invested but he has settled around $38 which is the value this week.

Another player we are we are backing in the usual outright win market as in the W/O Scheffler market has him as low as $23 on betfair & $26 on sportsbet.

Shop for +$40 on betfair as I did see higher yesterday (Tuesday), & he will be playing with no pressure as he already has qualified for end of season TOUR Championships.

 

 

Kurt Kitayama Win 65/1(+6500) 1.00 LOSS

We will declare of our 9 players this week KK just has to find more greens, he was ranked 50th when playing from the rough last week, he makes it harder than it needs to be.

We just feel he could pop at any time, unlike a few in this line up if he can get his wedge/irons under control then he could win here, double bogeys are dangerous for him.

Some of what we sent out last week for St Jude-

2026 PGA stats

  • 30th x SG: Total
  • 19th x SG: T2G
  • 31st x SG: OTT
  • 69th x DA @ 61.34%
  • 12th x SG: APG
  • 16th x GIR @ 70.24%
  • 113th x SG: ARG
  • 103rd x SG: PUT
  • 17/19 cuts made in 2026 for 89.5%
  • 33rd in FedEx Cup points

His last win was in 2025 @ 3M Open which was roughly this time last year and we have been on KK a few times in 2026, he has played well most of the time but one thing we have noticed is he has been far more consistent overall in 2026.

In 2026 he has made all 4 cuts seeing the final 36 holes at ALL MAJORS with his best result a T10 @ PGA Championships, Aronimink GC was tricky and this is no different here, in 2026 he has made 82% of cuts & when comparing his 2025 season he was only 60% & he only qualified to make it through to the 2025 BMW Championship (T19).

BWM Championships

We like to pride ourselves on finding value, so we sent him out around $130 last week, so it is bemusing that KK is around half of that this weekend!

Should he be so short?

Sure, he is trending well and he is firmly in our cross hairs, but he does also sit a high-

  • 3rd in current streak @ 251 putts WITHOUT a 3 putt

Why this is surprising is KK is not known for his putting, we have highlighted how well he did on poa annua greens @ Riviera GC but it is his tee to green that has him higher ranked than others on PGA tour.

Without setting the event on fire last weekend, KK was very consistent across all 4 days with @ St Jude

  • 21st x SG: OTT @ +1.249
  • T32 x Driving Accuracy @ 53.57% (30/56)
  • 21st x SG: APG @ +2.108
  • T18 x Greens in Regulation @ 61.11% (44/72)
  • 26th x SG: ARG @ +0.117
  • 27th x SG: PUT @ +0.885
  • T12 x SG: Total @ +4.360

KK only needs to replicate the consistent figures from last week and the form he is currently finding, around Sedgefield 2 x bogeys a day quickly adds up to +8 for the event, players will still need to be finding fairways this week, closer to hole proximity is the goal as putting is very possible around this course.

Simply put KK must find fairways, he is 50th in SG: APG from the rough, this is where he needs to improve this week, he finds fairways he can compete.

Currently into 28th on FedEx Cup points he only needs a 49th finish here @ Sedgefield to qualify for next weeks TOUR Championships, he will play with absolutely no pressure this week, maybe the motivator he needs as he is more likely to win this week than next week regardless his odds.

After opening around $55 on betfair there is plenty of $65 available on betfair, the field has been shrunk from 70 down to 50 this week so perhaps that can explain the odds being shorter but I would still like to see KK closer to $90-$100, that is fair odds IMO.

In the W/O Scheffler market he is way too low to consider @ $35 on bet365 & $34, his fair & acceptable price would be what we are getting now on betfair.

His best is good enough.

 

 

Min Woo Lee Win 70/1(+7000) 1.00 LOSS

Another player we were keen on last week around TPC Southwind, I watched as much as I could with MWL and it’s hard to put a finger on why he did not pop, sure we have stats to refer to but on what the eyes saw he honestly seemed uninterested, he was a bit like Rory who based on interviews alone had already checked out mentally.

Let’s compare as we sent MWL out @ $90 last week-

2026 PGA stats

  • 13th x SG: Total
  • 11th x SG: T2G
  • 12th x SG: OTT
  • 93rd x DA @ 59.88%
  • 61st x SG: APG
  • 96th x GIR @ 66.40%
  • 31st x SG: ARG
  • 81st x SG: PUT
  • 14/17 cuts made in 2026 for 82.4%
  • 18th in FedEx Cup points

Without doubt his best season on the PGA to date, the results have flowed in 2026 & this Aussie will be winning plenty in the coming years. Often more known for his driving distance we have seen his smooth wedge & iron play on display @ Pebble Beach & Spyglass links course @ PGA AT & T Pebble Beach into PGA Texas Houston Open & he gave us a scare when we picked Tom Kim in Scotland, MWL was 2nd but he looked super consistent across all 4 days-

2nd x Genesis Scottish open with rounds of 66, 66, 66, 67 for -15 (265)

Last week he was acceptable @ St Jude

  • 67th x SG: OTT losing -4.062 strokes
  • 68th x Driving Accuracy @ 37.50% (21/56)
  • 1st x Driving Distance @ 336.30 yds
  • 43rd x SG: APG losing -1.232 strokes
  • 9th x SG: ARG @ +2.451
  • 49TH X SG: PUT losing -1.798 strokes
  • T55 x SG: Total losing -4.640

BMW Championships

Even if we do what we like to do & that is doing a player V player scenario, we would still prefer MWL over say a Russell Henley, the latter always under achieves, after witnessing what RH did last week, I honestly think he fluked the PGA Charles Schwab.

It was not a good week for MWL, it usually lights a fire in him though & around a course where his length in driving will take him along way, he will still need to be accurate off the tee, across 4 days last week he was only-

  • Day 1 x only 2/14 fairways @ 14.79% (honestly, I could have done better)
  • Day 2 x 8/14 fairways @ 57.14%
  • Day 3 x 5/14 fairways @ 35.71%
  • Day 4 x 6/14 fairways @ 42.86%

These are NOT good driving figures, he might be 1st in driving distance but he will still need to find +55% of fairways here, he hits his average 60% of fairways he can get back in the hunt.

All eyes will be on whether he is NOT in the rough off the tee.

Another player I was surprised & similar to Kitayama that opened much shorter than our own ratings have them at, we sent MWL out @ $90, after opening around $60 on betfair there is $70 on betfair now, I would prefer him to be closer to the $90 like last week.

It is important to note he is a player that can quickly adjust from week to week and apart from his accuracy off the tee the rest of his game was more than acceptable, his approach play was greatly affected by his poor driving and he played 65% of his shots from in the heavy rough last week.

His form around tighter courses was far better so we will give him leeway for this weekend, I would suggest trying to get matched for much higher than his current $70 on betfair, in the W/O Scheffler market on bet365 he is $37 & sportsbet @ $41.

Again, if he was like $70 in the W/O market then I would also play it.

We are expecting a big bounce back this weekend & whilst he has secured next week into TOUR Championships being 18th in FedEx Cup points he really should play stress free golf.

 

 

 

Alex Noren Win 120/1(+12000) 1.00 LOSS

The other Swede we were following but left alone last week, the rest is history as he stormed into a T3 @ PGA FedEx St Jude.

He managed to get the one metric going in which he can struggle, that was his wedge & iron play was strong, and it was his dominant SG metric over his usually reliable putting.

2026 PGA stats

  • 42nd x SG: Total
  • 94th x SG: T2G
  • 112th x SG: OTT
  • 27th x DA @ 64.82%
  • 102nd x SG: APG
  • 107th x GIR @ 65.73%
  • 54th x SG: ARG
  • 5th x SG: PUT
  • 15/20 cuts made in 2026 for 75%
  • 34th in FedEx Cup points

The strong T3 last week moved him very close into next weeks TOUR Championships, he will need a solo 17th @ Bellerive GC, a course that should suit him even more than last week.

We had been on AN @ the PGA Wyndham Championships @ $95 along with him @ The OPEN Championships @ $280, he has been on our radar for a few months now, we will be looking deeper into EACH WAY markets closer to 2027, the USA analysts play mostly in that space.

Around this course his usually reliable finding fairways could set him up nicely again into this event, there could well be no other player with better momentum into this week from last week.

He needs to replicate similar figures.

St Jude stats

  • 35th x SG: OTT @ +0.207
  • T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 58.93% (33/56)
  • 1st x SG: APG @ +6.995
  • T8 x Greens in Regulation @ 63.89% (46/72)
  • 42nd x SG: ARG losing -0.424 strokes
  • 28th x SG: PUT @ +0.581
  • T3 x SG: Total @ +7.360

The standout stat was being 1st on approach, had he only played so well when we had him in with a chance before day 4 teed off @ PGA Wyndham, he was -14 after 54 holes and only 2 shots off the leaders, Michael Brennan & Beau Hossler.

IMO he laboured with a flat 70 (par), yes, he was on our radar and after that disappointment we steered clear but it was good to see his T3 last week as it just reinforces our players are in the thick of it, our 130-player rotating database finds heaps of winners but usually if we are not winning, we always have a few in the T10 with a show.

We also know AN found form and kept it last year when winning 2 DPWT events (read previous analysis from Wyndham & Open) on website and he has now had 3 straight results, how can we NOT have him in our plays this week.

After opening around $80 on betfair as of late Monday night (AEST) he was on our short list quickly, he has now drifted out to a more acceptable $120 on betfair, I would suggest closer to $150 would be well overpriced but always try for higher and work your way back.

His figures are strong he just needs to replicate last week, he is so close to that first win on PGA tour, in the W/O Scheffler market he is as short as $44 on bet365 & $51 on sportsbet, I would need at least $100 to consider him without scheffler, it is what we consider a fair price.

His accurate driving should see him compete.

Bud Cauley Win 160/1(+16000) 1.00 LOSS

BC was a late inclusion as he was a player that after we go through our own cut process and limit the number of players down each week, we did a comparable versus Patrick Cantlay & again versus Michael Brennan.

The latter is very well known for being one of the longer hitters on tour, unlike most long hitters he is very accurate & Brennan we could accept over Cantlay but when comparing both against current stats BC was a good stand.

He is no stranger to our database, but BC did leave a bad taste when he broke through @ PGA RBC Canadian Open, let’s take a deeper dive into the $160 chance this week.

2026 PGA stats

  • 61st x SG: Total
  • 24th x SG: T2G
  • 60th x SG: OTT
  • 82nd x DA @ 64.82%
  • 57th x SG: APG
  • 74th x GIR @ 66.83%
  • 17th x SG: ARG
  • 137th x SG: PUT
  • 18/21 cuts made in 2026 for 85.7%
  • 29th in FedEx Cup points

**BC only needs a solo 48th finish here and he advances to next weeks end of season PGA TOUR Championships. Before he won, he had another feel-good story which we will not mention as it is well documented in media but it was good to see the emotion after he won in Canada.

That WIN in Canada made his life much easier for the next 2 seasons as he has secured his card & if you are like us and are golf mad then just reading how difficult it is for the average player to organises schedules if outside the T100 bubble, I am of the opinion now and in the future that these players really should see it as a privilege, to play a sport for a living, honestly how hard can it be? Better than most occupations.

Anyway, without the added pressure of week to week, he has now secured the next 2 years of events, he should be playing in the end of season TOUR Championships that also secures the signature events etc so more $$$ & more points.

He could well be flying under the radar this week as he finished a very respectable T12, he had 4 consistent days with 66, 72, 70, 67 & we do not mind a player who starts well & finishes well, the truth of it all was last weekend he only had one day in which he was over par, Day 2 saw a 72.

On a weekend where bogeys were easier than pars it seems he was better than most-

  • T13 x 9 bogeys
  • T14 x 1 double bogey

He was able to offset the +11 shots with 16 birdies (T11) so he must have left TPC Southwind smiling for many reasons.

St Jude

  • 8th x SG: OTT @ +3.212
  • T16 x Driving Accuracy @ 58.93% (33/56)
  • 47th x SG: APG losing -1.792
  • T43 x Greens in Regulation @ 56.94% (41/72)
  • 5th x SG: ARG @ +3.941
  • 45th x SG: PUT losing -1.002 strokes
  • T12 x SG: Total @ +4.360

I think on my previous notes I made the comment which I have a paper file on what I see during the live event is “only a bogey every 6.5 holes” just little cheat notes I write during play, he does sit a very high 19th x SG: T2G @ +0.825 shots on avg per day across all of his 2026 PGA starts (21).

We try not to look at what a player was doing 5 years or more ago as really what is the relevance?

In the case of BC he was years away from Golf due to an accident, again well documented but of the 12 majors he played in up until 2021 then after 2024 he resulted in 8 of the 12 majors (75% in the $$$) from his earlier win on KFT (1) in 2014 he had many wins through the Collegiate circuit under 2010 (he is now 36 yrs old) but when you look at how many T10s he had as soon as he arrived on PGA tour it is impressive.

  • 17 x T5
  • 30 x T10
  • 73 X T25

The biggest takeaway is he played stuff all golf in 3 years (2021 to 2024) due to the accident, you often hear a story about an overnight singing star or actor, well when you read into this so called “overnight stars” have ben cutting it in their chosen industry for 10 to 15 years.

Without rambling too much we hope BC puts his best foot forward and goes and slays this event.

After opening around $100 on betfair he quickly drifted to $120 then out to $160 now, I would like to hope we get +$200 but he has solid form and will more likely play with freedom as he only requires a solo 48th here to advance, there is only 50 players this week.

In the W/O Scheffler market he is too low @ $61 & $61 on sportsbet, we can achieve 3 x this on betfair, that’s worth the risk to reward play.

Life has never looked more rosier as he locks in all majors & signature events for next year.

 

 

Nico Echavarria Win 230/1(+23000) 1.00 LOSS

The Colombian is back playing well, and he is one of the more proven putters on Bermuda greens. He is also playing into form at the right time with 2 x T12 @ PGA St Jude & the week earlier @ PGA Wyndham Championships.

We know players can run hot with their putters, but I feel more assured knowing that my player usually is a decent putter most weeks, a player IMO can always back off his drives to find fairways especially to ensure his 2nd shot is easier on approach to the green, I have seen with my own eyes Nico sink 15–20-foot putts regularly.

When he burns the edges of holes it usually only takes him a day to adjust.

So far in 2026 he has been hit or miss but his overall stats-

2026 PGA stats

  • 110th x SG: Total
  • 122nd x SG: T2G
  • 117th x SG: OTT
  • 60th x DA @ 61.38%
  • 92nd x SG: APG
  • 140th x GIR @ 63.78%
  • 133rd x SG: ARG
  • 56th x SG: PUT
  • 15/23 cuts made in 2026 for 65.27%
  • 42nd in FedEx Cup points

If you look @ Nico his overall 2026 stats would scare you off backing him, that is a large summary, and we like to look a few snapshots because considering he has been in positive driving accuracy in 5 of his last 7 matters.

He has made 8 of his last 9 cuts and we can point to when he was CUT @ PGA Rocket Classic he strangely lost -2.25 shots just with his putter.

That was an anomaly in our opinion.

From last week @ St Jude

  • 25th x SG: OTT +0.999
  • T3 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.64% (39/56)
  • 33rd x SG: APG +0.075
  • T43 x Greens in Regulation @ 56.94% (41/72)
  • 36th x SG: ARG losing -0.314 strokes
  • 10th x SG: PUT @ +3.599
  • T12 x SG: Total @ +4.360

This most recent snapshot tells us he has his game flowing well, the mere fact he was 3rd in driving accuracy did shock me a bit but some players like Si Woo Kim was more likely made to look better as we know SWK is very accurate not only off the tee but his iron play is very accurate, he only struggles with sinking birdies with his putter.

Even with his last 2 results being T12 & T12, Nico will still require a finish to advance into next week, he will need at least a 2-way 7th to stitch up all majors & signature events in 2027, he has a lot to play for this week. He has already secured all other events in 2027 & 2028 due to his win @ PGA Cognizant Classic.

It is worth noting for newer members we selected him to win there & he was a horror watch when off the tee, so much to the point that on day 4, I would leave the room as it could “end up anywhere” he has played most events since far better in driving accuracy.

We are doubling down on the fact he is one of the “better more reliable putters on Bermuda greens” it would not surprise us to see him make a run early up the leaderboard on days 1 or 2.

It is all in his hands now but after opening around $150 on betfair late on Monday night (AEST) I have seen as much as $260 this morning and another check he is around $230 now on betfair.

Try for +$300 and work back, he is around $126 on bet365 in the W/O Scheffler win market + $101 on sportsbet, he is worth considering but you cannot beat the value on Nico on betfair which is likely to be 2.5 to 3 X more.

A quick summary below as to why we have excluded players we have been on recently, this is not to say they cannot win, they just seem to be lacking a factor to win-

Tommy- false lull, always thereabouts but does find it hard to win.

Rory- he had already checked out before hitting the 1st ball last week, his media interviews tell you a lot, we have yet to get it wrong after viewing his pre-event interviews.

Morikawa- I was expecting more around a course that really favoured his game, will monitor this weekend and he may be  abetter chance next week.

Burns- too many times in contention of late and just cannot find enough to win.

Young- still in negative strokes in 8 of his last 9 events, he changed putters recently and has changed a few other aspects of his putting, got it right for 2 days only last week before reverting to his “old ways” to rest and change putters now is a wrong decision.

Hideki- been in contention every week of late but he will birdie the hardest hole to fluff the easiest hole, around courses of late his better greens play has kept him up there as has the improvement in his off the tee antics, just cannot trust him to secure a win.

SWK- very favoured last week with his accuracy setting up nicely, this course should test him more, he has had so many chances to win, better to back him in T5 & T10 markets only where he has proven to be a cash cow.

Cantlay- a pretender.

Henley- I honestly think he fluked his win in 2026- very accurate but he was also very ordinary last week when he should have thrived on a course that suited him.

Brennan- playing incredible golf, he will be up there at some point due to his long drives, he solved his putting woes of late, but this field should sort him out & it is very difficult to win so close after securing his 2nd PGA win. Odds stacked against him at this stage of his young career.

Players to watch

Jake Knapp- full of talent- plays outstanding golf but needs to link 4 days together and not 2- is very capable.

Michael Thorbjornsen- finally broke through recently for his 1st win, he had a fever and was sick last week so his effort comendable- will be feeling so much better this week- question his maturity but his play is improving as he often will shoot up the leaderboard to then bomb on day 4.

 

 

#Tips Wins Units Net Profit ROI
10 1 10.00 28.00 280.00%