PGA BMW Championship 2025 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

If you have been paying close attention this is another Golfer I am following.

This left hander can often surprise but he has alwasy been in my 50 player rotation & at this price I would possibly regret not picking him, previous weeks he has been half these odds yet his pay had been okay.

If I was to compare him to SAM BURNS, Harman was much better in all SG METRICS last week @ St Jude, yet BURNS is $46 v Harman @ $160.

HARMAN is aknown BIG hitter of the ball & last week he was only T51 ( not great as there were 70 players) he did however sit in 20th in DRIVING ACCURACY with better thn 65% of Fairways hit, the fairways are wider and longer here so he may really open up and smash them.

He actually was very good in SG: ARG with a handy +2.1.89 strokes gained + another +1.764 SG on PUTTING.

It really would not take much for HARMAN to shine this week, he does normally sit In the Top 15 in most events anyway, it was his 3rd day 72 that made him stumble, he improved on Day 4 with a 67 (-5 shot differential).

This lefty has been on a very slow perculation & timing is everything, he would have to be at his very best & Scheffler to have a not so good 1 day but he has beaten the Fav in many events prior.

Win @ $160 ( his fair rice should be no ore than $100)

Top 10 @ $6.20

Top 20 @ $3.60 (at time of summary only $167 on betfair) so shop for better

Ensglish we have tipped a couple of times in 2025, he has paid us for Top 10s etc and he has

finished a couple of times in the Top 10 (2 x 2nds in his past 8 events) but he often has to make up shots but I have been studying ENGLISH.

Forget last week despite him being T15 with his driver OTT (Off the Tee) it was his only positive Strokes gained metric.

He just had a bad 4 days & I had to make the decision to stick with HENLEY or ENGLISH, Cannot back them all, generally ENGLISH is good on BIG Courses so that resonates strongly with me.

He has the proven results on the BIG courses & was excellent over the Pond in Scotland & North Ireland, last week was his 1st game back on US soil.

We just need him to start and stay Top 10 through the days.

Win @ $80

Top 10 @ $4.60

Top 20 @ $2.72 (at time of summary only $167 on betfair) so shop for better

Probabbly like most I was glued to the final Day and the Playoff was scintilating.

We had JUSTIN ROSE who ran hot with his Putter & JJ who was not giving it up and his log range Putts were amazing.

I find it odd that the 2 players who were so resilient last week are drifters this week.

JJ was super consitent over the 4 days (HALEHULLIAH) with 68, 66, 65, 65 and unlucky not to Win with a -5 on the final day.

Stats wise he only had 4 x BOGEYS over 75 holes, he was ranked 1st, he was also ranked 1st in SG: Total with 12.493 Strokes Gained.

Being in a Playoff means he was high up in most other SG stats, 2nd in APG, 3rd in ARG with 65.8 % of GIR (Greens in Regualtion), he set up most of his shots still driving the ball equal to most of the filed in distance & Accuracy (22nd & 24th.)

He only has to back up here, which I think he can.

Win @ $42

Top 5 @ $7

Top 10 @ $3.20

This Englishman was fully stoked winning last week, he birdied holes 14, 15, 16 & 17th but what was interesting the front 9 he went Bogey, Birdie, Bogey so he was a ctually +1 heading into the back 9.

On 10 that was his 1st Birdie and the rest is history.

The form when losing to RORY has been franked now by both JJ & ROSE ( both winnning different events since being beaten by RORY in a Playoff), Myself personally normally I would not back up so quickly on a player who won the previous week.

BUT

Both JJ & ROSE have to be respected & with ROSE he was POSITIVE in all his SG: stats and watching him drive up the fairway his positioning was ON POINT, he was T20 in DRIVING ACCURACY, no surprise there but he actually was driving th ball between 318 yards & 338 yards.

He should be able to oick up strokes gained here than hopefully his PUTTER still is running hot.

ROSE should be nice & relaxed this week. The Monkey is OFF HIS BACK.

Win @ $70

Top 5 @ $12

Top 10 @ $5

Not sure why he is nearly double the odds of playoff partner, JJ SPAUN.

Mr Presidents Cup Captain has actually won this event x 2 now and both ties he was +$200.

We do not get that luxury becuase he has had a terrific 2025 so he has been in far better form with 1 x 1st & 5 x Top 10s.

His WIN @ Travelers was first class, he beat 2 of my players in (HENLEY & ENGLISH), Bradley thoroughly deserved the win with great golf.

Last week he started slow ith a 72, 70 but he worked the course out to finish with a 69 & 67 and despite his -2 only for T44 you could see he was much more comfortable late.

Normally better (7th) in SG: T2G (Tee to Green) in all of 2025 he was only 44th, he can improve on a course he has already won twice, he also can improve his green play, we saw when he won he can like most run hot with the putter.

Last week he lost strokes on every SG stat bar OTT, he was great with the driver in 9th last week

(+2.716) that is significant as he lost strokes on all other SG stats.

He is the Improver this week.

Win @ $65

Top 5 @ $8.60

Top 10 @ $4

I was following STATS of both ABERG & FLEETWOOD who was looking smooth, the latter as most of you know we have termed CHOKER which maybe harsh but he has proven in the big moments he just cannot hang on.

So most of my picks are based on recent form and distance drivers.

ABERG has slwoly been building and last week he was-

5th x SG: OTT@ 3.049 strokes

29th x SG: APG

+

26th x SG: ARG (so never has been his strength but his approach & around the greens passable)

31st x SG: PUT

All positives on all significant SG stats so his total Strokes gained was +5.493.

Now we love him as he was 3rd in DRIVING DISTANCE @ 323.50 yards + T14 in DRIVING ACCURACY (37 of 56 fairways hit for 66%).

He was also 2nd at this very course 4 yrs ago, he does thrive on the bigger courses.

Win @ $26

Top 5 @ $5.20

Top 10 @ $2.82

My Belgium friend who delivered for us in 2025.

I personally think he does deserve to be here in the final 50, he has been more consistent than WYNDHAM CLARK who if anything is annoyingly inconsistent.

The 1 factor that gives DETRY a hope here was last week he was NUMERO UNO in DRIVING.

He had the longest drive @ 361 yards + T20 in ACCURACY, so alot of his SG Stats are skewed in that on Day 4 he went +3.

He went 4 x BOGEYS and 1 of those as a Double BOGEY on 14, its ashame as he was playing super well with 67. 69, 68 and you will not see many events where that happens.

He geerally starts well and we should all remember when he took over @ WM Phoenix Open he was never in danger with 66, 64, 65 & 65, he can go low and since that win has still shown glimpses of Mid 60 days.

His STRENGTHS are OTT & Putting, if he can get his GIR (Greens in Regulation) above his verage of 65% and up over 70% he can figure in the finish.

History shows us other than BRADLEY winning this twice @ $200 most winners come from $20 to $27, where is the fun in that, we like Value and BRADLEY did prove that roughies ae possible.

Win @ $190

Top 10 @ $8.60

Top 20 @ $4 (at time of summary only $167 on betfair) so shop for better