PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard 2026 — Golf Picks, Tips & Analysis

• 11th x SG: T2G
• 4th x SG: OTT
• 68th x SG: APG
• 57th x SG: ARG
• 9th x SG: PUT
• 67.72% x Greens in Regulation

• BTA- Below tour avg Driving Accuracy
• 93.7% x made cuts in 2025 & 100% in 2026 (2/2)
• 87.5% x top 25 in 2025 & 100% in 2025 (2/2)
• 69.1 stroke avg
• 29 x PGA Wins
• 4/4 x SG metrics

What we sent out as Late Mail for the Genesis Invitational when 2nd.

• 28th x SG: Off the Tee @ +0.371 strokes gained
• 51st x Greens in Regulation @ 51.85% (28/54)
• 47th x SG: Approach to Green @ -2.724 losing strokes
• 8th x SG: Around the Green +2.166 strokes gained
• 16th x SG: Putting @ +2.369 strokes gained
• T22 x SG: Total @ +2.183
• T28 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (24/42) fairways hit

We will use Rory as the banker this week as he will be delighted to get away from poa annua greens and get back onto Bermuda grass.

Currently ranked in 2026-

• 2nd in Strokes gained Tee to Green
• 1st in Strokes gained Approach the Green

I am not overly concerned about his current 77th in Putting either as he was ranked as high as 9th on PGA tour in putting and we like many have mentioned he never really receives the credit for being as good putting.

Around $11.50 on betfair I would strongly suggest trying to get matched between $12 to $14 on betfair.

We recommend 4 units this week. In total our spend will be 13 units on the event over the 10 players.
Confirming Rory @ 4 units Win & all other players 1 unit win.

• 3rd x SG: T2G
• 50th x SG: OTT
• 6th x SG: APG
• 25th x SG: ARG
• 20th x SG: PUT
• 65.37% x GIR
• 67.37% x DA
• 94.7% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (2/2)
• 78.9% top 25 in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (2/2)
• 69.43 stroke avg
• 1 x PGA Win + 8 x DPWT Wins
• 4/4 x SG metrics

This will be the 1st time we have selected Tommy in 2026 but I watched him yesterday in the TGL playing for Los Angeles Golf Club (LAGC) for future ref but he looked rock solid in all areas of his game albeit indoors.

Looked a good tune up for this.

He is knocking on the door with both results in 2026 so good-

• 4th x PGA @ AT & T Pebble Beach with 67, 68, 67, 66 for -20
• 7th x PGA @ Genesis Invitational with 69, 66, 70, 67 for -12

At the Genesis Invitational he was-

• 7th x SG: OTT with +2.080 strokes gained
• 1st x SG: ARG with +4.420 strokes gained

Tommy is around $24 currently on betfair after opening @ $22 on Monday so has met with good support, There is plenty of $26 to $27 unmatched on betfair so I am happy taking $24 or $25 and will have a little bit extra personally on him for the HOPE Scott Scheffler does the usual slow start, be weary though as SS has won this event twice in last 4 years.

• 4th x SG: T2G
• 16th x SG: OTT
• 3rd x SG: APG
• 113th x SG: ARG
• 156th x SG: PUT
• 69.23% x GIR
• 70.65% x DA
• 85.7% made cuts in 2025 + 75% in 2026 (3/4)
• 61.9% top 25 in 2025 +50% in 2026 (2/4
• 69.95 stroke avg
• 7 x PGA Wins
• 3/4 x SG Metrics

The most recent winner in 2026 of the PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am who staved off a late challenge by our very own Sepp Straka, CM did it with his 62 (-10) on day 3.

He was able to back it up the following week but 2 weeks ago @ the PGA Genesis Invitational where he was positives strokes gained in all measured metrics, he finished the event on day 4 with 7 birdies & only 1 bogey. The best of those SG metrics was-

• 8th x SG: OTT @ +2.046
• 8th x SG: APG @ +3.412

Other key stats to pay attention to this week around a course that will reward staying on the fairway-

• 1st x Driving Accuracy @ 71.43% (40/56) fairways found

This should set up nicely for his iron plays-

• Greens in Regulation @ 72.22% (52/72)

Now the Stig & MJ do not want to just overwhelm everyone with stats but in 2026 CM is making less Putts than most (currently 8th overall) and like many players inside the Top 30 in OWGR they may not show us elite putting every week, but we saw in 2025 & more so in 2026 that CM can hold his own when it matters most.

He shot 62 @ Pebble Beach a notorious difficult course for birdies.

Currently $29 on betfair after opening around $24 on Monday in Australia, despite most bookmakers having him on the 5th line in markets we have included him for safety, I like others around double his odds more.

CM has been backing it up and his last 2 events show us this from his usually rare missing the cut in Hawaii.

• 15th x SG: T2G
• 38th x SG: OTT
• 15th x SG: APG
• 79th x SG: ARG
• 63rd x SG: PUT
• 70.05% GIR
• BTA- below tour avg for driving accuracy
• 85% made cut in 2025 + 75% in 2026 (3/4)
• 50% top 25 in 2025 + 66.66% in 2026 (2/3)
• 69.81 stroke avg
• 8 x PGA wins
• 4/4 x SG metrics

What we wrote for PC @ PGA Genesis Invitational-

"We have been following a few players that have been playing well over in the TGL & Cantlay is one of those players we rarely select but his latest figures and the timing could provide fruitful around a course he has resulted in most years he has played.
Another from Pebble Beach who only got moving late on day 4 when he carded a -7. It was not his putting either that stalled a higher result as from day 1 through to day 4 he sat in the T30 in SG: PUT, it was Day 2 that thwarted his move and on both days 2 & 4 he really struggled around the greens.

It was a stark contrast on Day 4 where PC was ranked-

• #1 in SG: APG

There was a handful of players who really were up & down and if they can bring their entire game up this week they can easily sit high on the leaderboard & remain high, PC was still good overall last week with his-

• T14 @ -17 with rounds of 66, 71, 69, 65

The focus this week is for Cantlay to prove our stats correct & his weakness is his driving, if he can keep it out of the rough on fairways he can be in the mix come day 4.

Currently around $34 & to be honest I was expecting him to firm as he opened @ $30 late on Monday night (AEST) but we believe he is better value than Xander."

At the Genesis, PC I thought at a few glances disappointing, however like a fair few players they really struggled on the poa annua greens, I must say it was obviously frustrating when leading players in the world could only shake their heads in disbelief when a straight put just ricocheted when 1 inch from the hole.

I am confident we back up this week on PC @ around $70 we are getting double the odds that when we have thoroughly included him.

Perhaps the value this week as he would normally start well inside the T5 or TOP few in outright win markets yet he opened @ $60 on betfair Monday & yet to have support drifting to $70 currently.

If we exclude his poa annua green play, I have he should feature this week, he is terrific value!

What we sent out as Late Mail for the Genesis Invitational-

• 17th x SG: OTT @ +0.503
• T9 x GIR @ 72.22% (13/18)
• 21st x SG: APG @ +0.306
• 12th x SG: ARG @ +0.778
• 4th x SG: PUT @ +2.276
• T4 x SG: Total @ +3.863
• T5 x DA @ 71.43% (10/14) fairways
• 18th x Driving Distance @ 300.40 yds
• T4 x Bogey avoidance with only 1 today.

In his 2025 PGA starts & we still use them via our own PGT database because most players have only between 8 to 32 rounds so not much to gauge overall.

• 62nd x SG: T2G
• 82nd x SG: OTT
• 76th x SG: APG
• 63rd x SG: ARG
• 30th x SG: PUT
• 67.00% x GIR
• 61.29% x DA
• 80.9% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (4/4)
• 47.6% top 25 in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4)
• 70.08 stroke avg
• 2 x PGA Wins + 3 X DPWT Wins
• 4/4 x SG metrics

I watched closet this Scotsman @ Pebble Beach as it was a course like Links courses that most English & Scotsman grow up playing @ home, so his -11 had me scratching my head.

At Pebble Beach he was-

• T37 with 71, 68, 66, 72 for -11

The start on Day 1 never really bothers us greatly if they stay within touch and RM shot his -1 (71) but of note he stumbled on holes 13 & 14 as he started from the 10th hole and he went double bogey on 13 & followed it up with a bogey so was quickly +3 over 2 holes.

He did exactly what you want to see and peg a shot back and he birdied the 15th then another birdie on the 17th before giving a shot back on the par 5, 18th with a bogey.

I am sure many were shaking their heads by then, He then went to work on the front 9 with 3 birdies & NO bogeys.
RM settled into Day 2 & 3 well with a total of-

• 10 birdies over 36 holes

Was the Scotsman going to make a run after sitting in 19th?

Day 4 never looked likely as he had 4 x birdies with 4 bogeys to finish with a 72 (Even par).

So, what has changed since and why are we considering him?

We trust our database & like the many players we have excused those playing at the Genesis due to only 1 factor, again repeating the Poa annua greens.

What surprised me was RM started around the Riviera Country Club on day 1 with a 73 (+2) and normally he would sulk & honestly I have seen him, lose the plot when things do not go his way (enter Rasmus Hojgaard last week) but he got on his bike and-

• 69, 66, 67

Now obviously not many paid to much attention as he is currently around $75 at time of summary after opening $60.

Also, I am very aware that he did lose strokes on Approach to the Green at all events in his last 3 events, the worse was -2.41 stokes lost @ Amex but his last 2 were only less than -0.50 strokes lost combined.

I am buoyed by the fact that normally he sits above 60% in his last 25 events in SG: APG but his putting stats are through the roof good overall.

If he can focus on finding greens from the 150 to 200 yards, then look out.

You could try & get matched on betfair for +$100, remembering however to check back and if all that can be matched is $75 then take it, I think if RM starts with them, he may surprise.

• 118th x SG: T2G
• 146th x SG x OTT
• 55th x SG: APG
• 118th x SG: ARG
• 62nd x SG: PUT
• 63.98% x GIR
• BTA- driving accuracy
• 66.6% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4)
• 38.8% top 25 in 2025 + 25% in 2026 (1/4)
• 70.62 stroke avg
• 12 x PGA Wins
• 2/4 x SG metrics

When Rosey won @ PGA Farmers Insurance Open in late January he caught many of us Analysts off guard, I will go on record that what we look at now is entirely different to what we were looking at in early 2024 (stats based) & honestly even MJ left out Rosey because of his rather low making cuts % compared to many others that rank in the T20 OWGR.

If you investigate his stats above for 2025 that is why we left him out.

Well, he showed that any player inside the OWGR T50 is capable of having 4 solid days of golf, he booted this home hard with his impressive-

• T23 with 62. 65, 68, 70 he won by 7 shots

He was only okay after the Win when he contested the PGA AT & T Pebble Beach with a T37 then missed the cut @ Genesis after days opening @ 74 & 71.

Another who I watched yesterday @ TGL game coaching Tommy Fleetwood, JR was good indoors yesterday, so he still retains the spark for competition despite him winning only 4 weeks ago he does sit a high-

• 16th x SG: APG across all PGA players in 2026.

If Rosey can maintain this and also maintain his better driving accuracy that he has found in 2026 he can compete.

**Just on indoors, I am watching TGL now as I type up the summary and Min Woo Lee just sank a 40-foot putt, incredible!

Why incredible as Rory was indoors yesterday practicing & he was saying that when it is a very humid day outside then the indoor putting can be 3 to 4 feet slower, so you "gotta be more aggressive".

Currently around $80 on betfair I suggest being somewhat conservative here only due to JR was exactly what his stats state clearly, be safe as he only hit 2 from 4 in 2025 in PGT rated strokes gained metrics.

• 9th x SG: T2G
• 32nd x SG: OTT
• 39th x SG: APG
• 8th x SG: ARG
• 114th x SG: PUT
• 66.04% GIR
• 61.39% DA
• 90.5% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4)
• 52.4% top 25 in 2025 + 0% in (0/4) 2026
• 69.91 x stroke avg
• 8 x PGA Wins
• 3/4 x Strokes gained metrics

Another player who we sent out recently-

"KB the captain of the 2025 USA Ryder Cup team can be a hard player to catch to Win outright.

We had a few of our players chase him hard on day 4 @ PGA Travelers Championships in June of 2025 after he opened the door with his 70 on Day 2, he did crank it up to a low 63 (-7) on day 3 to put a bit of separation before paddling on day 4 with his -2, we had several finish hard to fall just short.

Now he is another who brings decent form indoors from the TGL & he always will figure when he addresses his wayward putting. Now he was very measured last week @ Pebble Beach and this is the KB we want to see here @ Riviera-

• 37th x SG: OTT over 72 holes (high of 21st on Day 2-with 22nd on Day 3)
• 66th x SG: APG over 72 holes (high of 11th on Day 1- the rest was +50th)
• 4th x SG: ARG over 72 holes
• 20th x SG: PUT over 72 holes (high of 17th Day 1) highlighting his consistency

KB did card an impressive -9 (63) on Day 1 & the eventual winner Colin Morikawa was ( -10 on day 3) & if you have been on the profitable journey with us you know we would prefer -4 or -5 each day but as Scheffler proved last week (-9) if you are going to have your best day then day 4 is when to bring it.

If we look more deeply into KBs putting stats in 2025 they were terrible being ranked @ 114th overall, We do not even mind if a player in our weekly roster sits around 60th, usually they bolster overall play with other stronger strokes gained metrics.

What we can prove is Keegan has now-

• 8 of his last 13 events in Positives strokes gained for Putting
• 3 of the 5 negative events he was less than -0.50 strokes

His stats would look incredible if that read 11 of his last 13 so its apart of his game he has improved, I personally have seen him sink some monster putts in various TGL events.

We are feeling much better in including KB as a rough hope this week as he has-

• 22 of his last 25 events all in +SG: Total

He just has the habit of bobbing up when no one expects it.

The signature event this week reduces to 72 players from 80 the previous week & I thought Bradley would be a significant drifter but he opened @ $80 late Monday night on betfair and is around $90 currently.

I would suggest trying to get matched between $110 to $120 on betfair, we have to remember that the field is only 72 players and KB is around $90 if he was in a full field of +150 players would he be closer to +$150?

Very possible but he is still on our radar & still sits well within our Top 50 of our own PGT player roster."

**Why KB is included in this line up @ Bay Hill is he shot an incredible -8 (64) last year on the final, day 4.

1st x SG: APG with +6.040 strokes gained

A near 70% driving accuracy helped him line up shots on approach and he obviously had no problems with his putter on day 4 as he went-

• 1 x Eagle + 7 x birdies with just 1 bogey

We know any of these better and higher ranked players can feature on any weekend they just need to run super-hot. Currently on betfair there is $110 on offer and no support since opening around $80. We suggest trying for higher odds so see if you can get matched +$130.

• 100th x SG: T2G
• 80th x SG: OTT
• 80th x SG: APG
• 55th x SG: ARG
• 65th x SG: PUT
• 65.55% x GIR
• 67.39% x DA
• 63.6% made cuts in 2025 + 50% in 2026 (2/4)
• 27.3% top 25 in 2025 + 25% in 2025 (1/4)
• 70 stroke avg
• 0 x PGA Wins + 12 x DPWT Wins
• 2/4 x strokes gained metrics

We have highlighted previously the GREAT mystery on why very good European players do not win on the PGA Tour!
In Europe this swede has beaten the best in the world & he got so close at the PGA HERO WORLD challenge (mid December) when beaten in a playoff by Hideki Matsuyama.

The form lines still run strongly through the Japanese player who has maintained good results into 2026 with him being beaten in a playoff recently by Chris Gotterup.

It did not surprise us @ PGT that it may have rattled the swede mentally, he was cut in his next 2 events from the American Express & the Farmers Insurance Open but has looked much sharper since with good results at-

• T12 x PGA Genesis Invitational with 74, 66, 67, 66 for -11
• T29 x PGA AT & T Pebble Beach Pro Am with 68, 70, 66, 71 for -13

In his last 8 rounds of golf he has shot 66 x 3 and that could have easily been 5.

Leading into HERO World challenge and including all worldwide starts he had from 10 events-

• 2 x 1sts x Betfred British Masters + BMW PGA Championships
• 2nd x PGA Hero World Challenge
• 3rd x PGA Wyndham Championships
• T7 x PGA 3M Open
• 2 x T20 results

The swede most likely wins 2 this year on PGA tour and what you have to appreciate he could easily go to Puerto Rico this week for the PGA double header and win there but chose the better field.

After opening around $100 on Monday you can easily find $140 now on betfair, I was personally matched @ $160 so I suggest with moving markets try for at least $160 up to $180.

His best is clearly good enough, lets hope he starts well early.

• 67th x SG: T2G
• 120th x SG: OTT
• 43rd x SG: APG
• 84th x SG: ARG
• 51st x SG: PUT
• 64.21% x GIR
• BTA x DA
• 71.4% made cuts in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (3/3)
• 33.3% top 25 in 2025 + 100% in 2026 (3/3)
• 70.24 stroke avg
• 2 x PGA Wins
• 3/4 strokes gained metric

The Silver fox from NZ is no stranger to The Stig & MJ having provided us with a win as the late mail @ the PGA RBC Canadian Open.

Worldwide & he is charging into form with-

• 11 x straight cuts made
• 6 of 11 events in T30
• Last 3 PGA events T24, T24 & last week T7

Why we are taking notice is that his last 3 events have his total strokes gained not only are in positive but from those 3 events he has hit 4/4 in our own SG: metrics we measure & is a whopping good 100%.

Why are we getting +$160 on betfair? So, let's be cheeky and see if we can grab $200? If not, we may have to settle for between $160 to $180.

His Driving is good, his Approach good as is his around the greens play and even his putter is firing (last 8 straight) so please do not desert us here Foxy.

• 33rd x SG: T2G
• 76th x SG: OTT
• 33rd x SG: APG
• 56th x SG: ARG
• 153rd x SG: PUT
• 68.02% x GIR
• 61.22% x DA
• 69.5% Made cuts in 2025 + 20% in 2026 (1/5)
• 30.1% top 25 in 2025 + 0 in 2026 (0/5)
• 70.06 stroke avg
• 6 x PGA Wins
• 3/4 x strokes gained metrics

Our roughie this week and I did consider pumping him out in T20 markets, some of you are smartly playing all players in those markets but @ $500 but only $6.40 is criminal that is on offer for him to T20, sure it will cover the play total.

We do not just randomly throw a dart to find roughies, it helps when we are stat nerds but the Georgian really is a great Iron-wedge player, on approach this year-

• 9 x straight PGA events in +SG: APG
• 21 of his last 25 events in + SG: APG

He is no stranger to us either as he was tipped by us in 2024 & 2025 and did result when we were tipping in T10 & T20 markets officially.

The little devil on my shoulder keeps barking at me to remember that he did also result from June to Mid-August in 2025 with some terrific efforts-

• T2 x PGA RSM Classic (beaten in a 3-way playoff) mind you
• T12 x PGA US Open (Major)

Yes he is $500 to win outright and he would have to be bring his best to be in contention but over the years we have nailed a few big shots and you have to rely on gut feel and trends, His last few from the Tee box he has been improving and he clearly can play winning 6 on PGA tour, we just need his Driving to keep improving & he straighten up his green play.

At time of summary there is plenty of $490 to $500 & I have 2 x unmatched plays at $520 & $550 currently, there has been no love for CK so try and get matched above what we suggest is on betfair, you can also wait (up to you) as Tee off is not for another 50 hours as well, your call.

We never personally recommend prices, only make suggestions as markets vary greatly.

If he was to play his best golf he can feature, he may need a few of the best be off but it happens its golf!