Amgen Irish Open 2026 Golf Picks, Odds & Analysis

Last week Angel Hidalgo gave us a great sight and with only 6 holes left looked a danger to the leaders, even though he was sent out around $250 there was as much as $400 found for him before teeing off on day 1. In the end he faltered over the final 2 holes but was a very respectable -16 & only going down by 2 strokes as winner was -18.

Our other chance on day 4 was Matt Wallace was consistent over the final 54 holes finishing only 1 shot adrift of Hidalgo @ -15.

Both had their chance to win.

We head to Doonbeg, Ireland which is the traditional links course in Ireland and whilst diving deep into stats the course offers 5 x par3s + 5 par 5s.

This Englishman is a very well know links course player who has been plying his skills on the LIV tour, but TH does bring 15 victories into this weekend-

• 1 x PGA
• 8 X DP World tour
• 2 x LIV
• 4 x Ryder Cups (2018, 2021, 2023 & 2025)

Since winning LIV @ Andalucia, Spain in early June TH has been very consistent having-

• 6/8 in SG: OTT the only events losing strokes he was -0.46 & -0.28 strokes
• 5/8 in SG: APG
• 7/8 in SG: ARG & he only lost -0.39 strokes @ British Masters recently
• 4/8 in SG: PUT but he only lost between -0.12 to a high of -0.91 strokes in the other 4

We are happy his game is just on the cusp of some magic golf, he does not have to play any golf like the pressure of a major and this is low key with most of the OWGR players being absent.

LIV stats

• 34^th x Fairways hit @ 58.93 driving accuracy (363/616)
• 13^th x greens in regulation @ 70.33% (557/792)
• 11^th x putting avg @ 1.58 per round (1255 GIR putts)
• 11^th x birdies avg 4.75 per round (209 birdies in total)
• 34^th x scrambling @ 60.43% (142/235) par or better

After selecting both Thomas Detry & Adrian Meronk last week Hatton does sit higher in most strokes gained metrics (Detry sits higher in putting) but back TO A LINKS COURSE WILL BRING OUT HIS BETTER PLAY.

After opening up around $23 on betfair he has find good support & there is plenty of $25 on betfair now, we consider this a very fair price & on bet365 there is $20.

**For newer members who may not be aware, you can also read the previous analysis on the website for TH when we selected him in July @ PGA Tour Open.

Odds of $22 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:13pm

Confirming this week in Ireland our strategy is we are playing with 8.7% of the field (12 players of 138 players) for an Outright Winner.

Last week MW last 54 holes 66 (-4), 66, 65 (-5) were consistent, he only went down by 3 shots & if we highlight day 1 (69) it mattered as there were a handful of players that shot 62 & 63 to put themselves in contention.

The course in the Swiss alps honestly was not that difficult yet 50% of players were missing the fairway & not just missing, Thomas Detry on a few holes was absolutely terrible, one tee shot actually made the opposite fairway, he was however ranked T3 in par 3 scoring & T12 in par 5 scoring with his putter picking up on avg +1.86 per round.

Detry could easily appear on the leaderboard here but happy to leave him alone on the links course.

Back to Matt Wallace.

Some of what we sent out for the Omega European last week @ $16-

MW had returned to his home country last week and looked okay with plenty of room to improve @ DPW Tour British Masters when a T15, he was in positive strokes gained in all metrics PGT measure.

In the last few months, he has been threatening to win on the stronger PGA tour & good recent results with-

• T7 @ PGA Wyndham Championships with -14
• T5 @ PGA Rocket Classic with -13

He is the horses for courses player this week already dominating the lovely Swiss course & if you normally do not watch golf, tune into Kayo or Foxtel as the course is a scenic wonder.

• 2025 x T2
• 2024 x 1
• 2023 x T24
• 2022 x 2
• 2021 x DNP

Despite his short odds he is playing better than most and at worst case scenario him winning covers the whole outlay, he has led a few PGA events with most of the T20 OWGR players present.

2026 PGA stats

• 29^th x SG: Total
• 101^st x Driving Accuracy @ 57.97%
• 23^rd x SG: Tee to Green
• 85^th x SG: Off the Tee
• 18^th x SG: Approach the Green
• 77^th x Greens in Regulation @ 66.67%
• 37^th x SG: Around the Green
• 83^rd x SG: Putting
• 13/18 cuts made on PGA tour

After blowing out the cobwebs and he has room for improvement from last week but without drilling stats all the way MW was-

British Masters

• 21^st x birdies @ 4.25 per round
• 6^th x par 3 scoring @ 2.83
• 21^st x par 4 scoring @ 3.98
• 23^rd x SG: T2G
• 18^th x SG: APG
• 49^th x GIR @ 68.06% (70% on any course is good & he is a high 18^th in USA on PGA TOUR
• 2^nd x Putts per GIR @ 1.67

Amgen Irish Open

Last week we allowed improvement & MW was good with a stroke average of 66.25 & he was 2^nd in birdies last week with 6 on avg per round/day, another player like all poms he grew up on the links courses, he was also good being 5^th in strokes gained tee to green, he only needs to maintain a T10 to again give himself a chance.

After opening around $28 on betfair he has slightly drifted to $32, MW was only $16 last week & we suggest trying to get matched closer to +$40, with Rory & Hatton, Rahm showing up we think +$40 is possible.

Bet365 @ $28

Odds of $32 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:23pm

Funnily enough off the top of my head we have only ever selected the “other Fitzy” once before for the PGA Wyndham Championships in early August (full analysis on the website).

2026 PGA stats

• 30^th x SG: Total
• 28th x Driving Accuracy @ 64.33%
• 13th x SG: Tee to Green
• 22nd x SG: Off the Tee
• 16^th x SG: Approach the Green
• 45th x Greens in Regulation @ 68.56%
• 82nd x SG: Around the Green
• 114th x SG: Putting
• 13/14 cuts made on PGA tour for 92.85% SR

After a very busy and highly consistent end to his debut on PGA Tour AF deliberately missed recent DPWT events and he really made a big impression in America.

From the PGA Tour Championships-

• 20^th x SG: OTT losing -1.132 strokes
• T22 x Driving Accuracy @ 57.14% (32/56)
• 21^st x SG: APG losing -1.609 strokes
• T24 x Greens in Regulation @ 62.50% (45/72)
• 2^nd x SG: ARG @ +3.859
• 10^th x SG: PUT @ +1.985
• T6 x Sand Saves @ 75.00% (9/12)
• T7x Scrambling @ 74.07% (20/27)
• T4 x SG: Total @ +3.103

We will make special mention that around East Lake golf course he ranked 4^th in driving distance, another English player that cut his whole career playing links styled courses.

The splash he made on the PGA tour was possibly the best I have witnessed and he franks the form with back-to-back wins after victory @ DPWT HERO Indian Open, which is a very difficult course then he celebrated victory with his brother Matt claiming the PGA Zurich Classic New Orleans. The Fitzy team knocked off our selection (Norwegian Reitan & Ventura) that was another 2^nd for us also in 2026.

Since the 2 x wins, he has had the foot down & he must be considered around a course that suits his game. Because we look at all skills of each player if there was one metric, we would be critical of is his putting, not an elite putter having only been in positives strokes gained in only 40% of his last 10 events (only 4 events in +SG: PUT).

Now of the other 6 events he was less than 1 stroke lost in 4 of the 6, a low of -0.16 strokes lost to a high of -0.99 strokes lost & without really drumming it in about stats if you consider a player that loses -0.5 strokes in putting and also -0.5 on approach that adds up quickly to 4 strokes over the 72 holes, then add other discrepancies and you can see how a player can lose -8 strokes over 4 days of play.

AF opened around $32 on betfair and interestingly had the 3^rd highest amount to be matched on betfair ($1’333) it is however early days with only $117k in the pool and he is now around $36, I would much rather having 1 unit on the other Fitzy than Robert Macintyre, we have selected Bobby Mac recently but we also highlighted how fickle he can be, he bombed at 1 event then played very well at the next, it does not take much to derail Bobby Mac.

So finally, there is no comparison to why we would have 1 unit on Alex @ $36 versus Bobby Mac @ $23, in our eyes we are getting a bonus +60% taking Alex.

AF on Bet365 @ $28

Odds of $38 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:26pm

The American is no stranger to us, but he technically does owe us after going close a few times without winning.

What we sent out when he was $110 as a late mail for a major, PGA the OPEN Championship @ Royal Birkdale, England.

The OPEN Championship

PR takes our players selected now to 8.3% of the field (156 players) & he like Collin Morikawa was a player we had our eyes on before day 2 commenced, we always like PR due to his very good scoring with his elite ball striking.

After leaving LIV he had made his mark back on the DPWT winning a few and we liked him enough to pick him @ $55 for the US Open in mid-June.

He is our outsider in the late mail selections, but he will start at -2 along with Colin Morikawa & 1 stroke off original pick Tyrell Hatton so we now have a total of 9 players to win the final major in 2026.

The OPEN

After a 72 (+2) on day 1 his weekend was looking like it would end early until a surge on day 2 saw a better 66 (-4) which did see 7 birdies which was reduced by 3 bogeys & 2 of those came late on the 16^th & 18^th holes.

What was rather impressive was he went 5 birdies on the first 7 holes which upon watching both days its is very possible to bird at least 3 of the first 4 holes so we will need a run on day 3 like we saw on day 2.

Day 2-

• -0.23 losing SG: OTT strokes
• +3.39 SG: T2G
• +4.48 SG: APG
• -0.85 losing SG: ARG strokes
• +0.96 SG: PUT
• +4.36 SG: Total

The goal for our selections is to hit 65 or 66 on both days, finding most fairways will set up the next shot to the green and this is imperative so fingers crossed most it not all can achieve this from our 9 players to challenge.

Currently around $110 on betfair which starting @ -2 FOR THE EVENT is risky we have seen big efforts from our players recently when winning, it all comes down to who will run hot with 36 holes to go & generally players who are yet to peak over the weekend.

Since leaving LIV though PR was quick to win 2 of 3 events (he finished 2^nd in between his victory in Dubai & then Qatar, then another 7 x T30 results followed from 12 events (58% SR).

Amgen Irish Open

A key factor in Ireland this week will be PR and his usually reliable wedge & iron play which we saw in full flight last week @ DPWT European Masters in Switzerland-

• 10^th x SG: APG with +1.22 strokes on avg per round
• 1^st x SG: ARG WITH +1.61 strokes on avg per round
• 1^st x par 5 scoring @ 3.92 strokes on avg

Around Doonbeg GC the links course overlooking the Atlantic Ocean will set up nicely for him, his reliable wedge & iron play will have him up the top at some point through the event.

We were pleasantly surprised PR has eased on betfair since opening around $34 there is now $38 available, I would push & try getting matched for +$40, players such as Rory & even fellow countryman Shane Lowry will attract a lot of attention so we may get a few taking us on above +$40.

PR is @ $28 on Bet365

Odds of $48 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:28pm

We have a lot of time for TM & after watching him destroy the field @ JSA Link Hong Kong Open in November 2025 he played his first event for LIV @ Riyadh in early February 2025.

From his T15 @ Riyadh TM has now had 9 x T10s in LIV & DPWT events and a further 22 x T30 results so a combined 31 x T30s from 47 events, he is only 23 yrs of age & has threatened to win a LIV event.

His latest 6^th @ DPWT British Masters 2 weeks ago showed he is ready to claim a win near home soil but a close look at his stats from England-

• 3^rd x bogeys @ 1.50 per round
• 8^th x par 5 scoring @ 4.25 per round
• 23^rd x SG: OTT
• 5^TH x SG: T2G @ +2.05
• 7^th x SG: APG @ +1.66
• 70^TH x SG: PUT @ +0.07

Despite only being 70^th in England in putting he has been far more reliable and has been in positive strokes gained in putting at-

• 5 x straight events in +SG: PUT with low of +0.007 to a high of +1.65

The mere fact TM has been picking up strokes on the greens will only assist him this weekend, he has been in +strokes gained off the tee now in 14 straight events but also 24 of his last 25 events, something he can lean on.

We also like that in his last 4 events he has 4 x straight T20s including 2 x T6s.

We know how good he can be, sure he is 23 yrs old and his only DPWT win was in 2023 @ Porsche Open when only 20 years old & hailing from Northern Ireland he maybe flying under the radar a little compared to Rory & Lowry.

LIV tour

• 5th x Fairways hit @ 67.26% driving accuracy (452/672)
• 19th x greens in regulation @ 69.68% (602/864)
• 28th x putting avg @ 1.60 per round (1382 GIR putts)
• 25^th x birdies avg 4.02 per round (193 birdies in total)
• 6th x scrambling @ 67.56% (177/262) par or better

We are hopeful TM starts quickly & he was being mentored by legendary player Padraig Harrington so expect big things for the remainder of 2026 & 2027.

TM opened shorter than we expected around $34 on betfair but has now settled around $48, that is his fair price but try & get matched between $55-$60, we also track players after round 1, the reason is we can sometimes achieve 2 x 3 times more the odds if a player is only 2 to 3 shots off the leaders.

High expectation & his current price near $50 is fair.

Bet365 @ $36 so is kept safe.

Odds of $55 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:30pm

Last week we had the other Spaniard Angel Hidalgo who gave it a good try @ better than +$250, in our opinion Ayora is by far the better player but you often get very short odds for him, this event he is near double his usual odds yet he was very competitive last week when T4 @ -16.

AA is one of the younger Spaniards on DP World tour @ 21 yrs of age & is yet to win on DPWT but to be fair he only turned pro in late 2023.

• 17 x T10 results in DPWT events (7 of 17 in T5)

From the 2025 Omega European Master (August 31^st, 2025) to the Nedbank Golf Player of the year in December 2025-

• 8 x T10 results from 11 events

AA is bursting to win one of these and last year he was a tidy 5th @ Amgen Irish Open when it was held @ the K club but he was consistent with rounds of 69, 71, 68, 67 for -13 & something I noticed was 5 x Spaniards were in the T20, what we will be keen to watch is his putting, we do not expect him to be elite but he often picks up strokes very easily on approach we do not want to see him struggle with his putting, we will keep a close eye on this.

Last week in Switzerland he was ranked in the T5 in 3 of the 6 metrics that the DP World tour record-

• 1st x bogeys @ 1.00 per round
• 40^th x par 5 scoring @ 4.50 per round
• 16^th x par 3 scoring @ 2.85 per round
• 4th x SG: OTT
• 25^th x DA @ 61.54%
• 6^TH x SG: T2G @ +2.36
• 7^th x SG: APG @ +1.66
• 2^nd x GIR @ 81.94%
• 44^TH x SG: PUT @ +0.57
• 4^th x 66.00 stroke avg

Just as an example if a player is still able to score 4.50 on a par 5 and around a course like this with 5 x par 5 holes then that can equate to picking up +2.50 strokes (+0.5 x 5) even if we work it out as par on 2 & 3 @ 4.50 strokes it still equates to +1.50 per day, this quickly adds up to 6 shots over 4 days, it all adds up & honestly I have discussed this in depth with the Stig who gets out on the course every week, it matters.

There is nothing worse than seeing a player not take advantage of a par 5 hole.

If AA can repeat minimal bogeys and he was 12^th x brides with 5.00 per day (lost only 1 of those a day) see above as he was ranked 1^st in bogey avoidance, then he should be in the fight.

The young gun opened @ $44 on betfair and there is now $48, more than happy to accept this as usually he starts around $30 & we just think that with Rory & Lowry (good friends) but their media commitments are relentless, on paper Rory should romp this in but if he only starts fair he could easily drift out to +$20 after day 1.

We have noticed even Rory has been a little bit off here & there with his driving, hopefully that continues & well if there is water anywhere Lowry has a missile to find it, amazing how many times he has found water.

Angel is very similar on Bet365 @ $46.

That is rare.

Odds of $55 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:33pm

It is no secret that we tipped Sepp when he was $700 and he finished in T5 the first time, since he has been very good on PGA since that several years back & he has now won 4x PGA tour.

The last time we selected SS was for the PGA RBC Heritage in mid-April, he struggled late to finish T42- we sent him out @ $24 as the late mail.

**Before day 4 had started Sepp was in T3 @ -13

Why we liked SS?

The Austrian we were on in earlier events such as PGA Pebble Beach then followed up @ PGA WM Phoenix and we even included him as a Late Mail @ $17 at the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Those events were good and SS resulted-

• T2 @ PGA Pebble Beach with 66, 66, 67, 68 for 267 (-21)
• T18 @ PGA WM Phoenix Open with 71, 69, 67, 68 for 275 (-9)
• 13^th @ PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational 72, 69, 66, 76 for 283 (-5)

Those events we were on, but he has been in form so far in 2026- 

• 6/8 made cuts
• 4 x T25 including a 2^nd + for 2 x T10
• 13^th x OWGR

Like most golfers SS can really lean on his wedge & iron play as he is currently 20^th in SG: APG across all PGA players on tour, when he gets his putter going, he is lethal & why we are including Sepp as the late Mail as he is again showing glimpses of that combination around Harbour Town Links GC-

• Day 1 x 3^rd in SG: PUT @ +3.51 strokes gained
• Day 2 x +2.37 SG in SG: Total with his only SG metric was -1.47 strokes on Approach
• Day 3 x 2^nd in SG: T2G with +3.37 strokes gained

Currently sitting in T3 with an original selection in SI WOO KIM with -13 & I will touch on SWK in the betting summary, but SS overall is looking great to give one good final push to put a 1^st on his resume in 2026.

• 12^th x SG: OTT @ +1.875
• 26^th x SG: APG @ +1.707
• 17^th x SG: ARG @ +1.884
• 19^th x SG: PUT @ +2.486
• T3 x SG: Total @ +7.952
• T15 x Driving Accuracy @ 69.05% (29/42)
• T14 x GIR @ 66.67% (36/54)
• 1^st x Scrambling @ 88.89% (16/18)

We included scrambling as on watching him closely he really is rallying when it gets toughs and as we have seen on the 3 different days, he is doing well with one SG metric and not so the other, he is close enough to win around $24 on betfair.

Just on SWK he is the only player within striking distance that has NO negative strokes lost in all strokes gained metrics over 54 holes, that is rare & he also has shot 62 & 63 numerous times & we are yet to see a low round from here. Timing is everything & the winner will be determined on the front 9 as both wind & rain is forecast; will it arrive in time only nature knows but we are hedging our total of 15 units in total in play for this event.

Amgen Irish Open

The best version of SS can win this and when he has his wedge & iron play in check (15/21 events in +SG: APG) this is important as SS went 5 x straight events where he was losing strokes on approach from the US Open in June to PGA Wyndham Championships in early August.

Thankfully he has now back-to-back events in +SG: APG, in fact his overall game @ both the PGA FedEx St Jude & PGA BMW Championships were a big improvement on his game.

He arrives in Ireland nice & fresh & he did have some good results earlier in 2026, we will be watching to see if he is cruising in the first 18 holes, you do not want to see the Austrian with shoulders slumping, if he has not got his approach play going it will reflect his putting, he is that predictable, he sinks a few putts early then it is happy days.

SS opened around $60 on betfair, he has remained firm and there is $166 to be matched @ $70 on betfair now with $134k in the exchange pool. I would be trying for +$80 as he still has slight? to his overall game, he has played very well fresh previously, it will however all depend if he can roll a few in on the greens, it is that simple with Sepp.

Bet365 @ $61 is very close to betfair, we have advised it previously but the advantage of bet365 over betfair is you can have individual player cashed out with the bookmaker, we will be exploring this fully before the start of 2027.

Odds of $70 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:35pm

As we are very transparent, I will happily say we steered clear of BK on PGA tour even when he was apparently “running hot”

I had to chuckle as leading analysts on CBS & ESPN would tell the audience how big of a chance he was. Most of his game had really turned the corner but one metric that always turned us away was his failure to convert birdies with his putter.

We watch a lot of golf and honestly if a player misses 50% of putts I could actually sink (under 4-5 feet) then there is a major problem in his game, it was not similar to Si Woo Kim missing putts either, SWK would have hangers & just miss the hole by millimetres that close, BK would miss them by a margin but then end up a further few feet on the other side.

 Before BK withdrew with that thumb/wrist injury @ PGA RBC Canadian Open he was +2.44 strokes gained in PUTTING (miracle)

**a 64 & 68 on day 1 & 2 before the injury made him withdraw but he was up +6.57 strokes (SG: Total) after 36 holes.

Now that is important as from his last 16 events, all in 2026 he has only been in +SG: PUT in 5 so it firmly confirms that having only a SR @ 31.25% in putting makes it very difficult wo win golf events.

WHY NOW then?

Firstly, the rest of his game is very strong having 75% SR in strokes gained in all other metrics & most importantly he will need to bring his wedge & iron game to Ireland, in SG: APG in his last-

• 12/16 events in +SG: APG for a 75% SR

We have watched at least 15 hours of video on BK, he is in a very positive frame of mind from what we can see, he openly has said in interviews how much practice he has put in since the PGA 2026 season ended-

Putter Swaps: He transitioned from blades to mallets, experimenting with models like a TaylorMade Spider and later switching to a Scotty Cameron Fastback 1.5 with more toe hang to help the putter release more naturally & according to an article in Australian Golf Digest-

Technical Tweaks: He worked on simplifying his stroke by adjusting his ball position slightly further back to avoid pushes, moving away from over-complicated mechanics, and reducing excessive hand action during his stroke.

He has set up a specialist home putting studio.

**With his very elite ball striking he could play leader at some stage in Ireland.

We are very tough critics, and BK has done enough to finally convince us, after opening around $50 he has quickly drifted to $70 on betfair now.

Terrific value considering there were many bigger PGA events where he opened between $20-$30 in at least 50% of his events. Yes he needs to solve one issue, his putting, even if he can improve only 50% with the long stick that could be enough with his elite ball striking to play  a major role over the weekend.

Over the odds!

Bet365 @ $46 & personally I would rate him under $35 in this line up, he only needs to fix his putting.

Odds of $75 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:40pm

We get to the first of our roughies, well not really that rough but they are value when above +$100 & aways worth considering at this price.

Without any doubt I have been following this English player for around 15 months, mainly watching & learning but since he arrived on LIV tour in 2022 & I just think had he stayed on DPWT (2 wins) he would have possibly won 4 or 5 more if we measure him against other DP players that we rate below him and have already won that many.

Fast forward from 2022 & without winning on LIV he has still managed to finish in T10 x 4 & it is very misleading as LC played approx. 48 events on DPWT in 2023 -2026.

At his best he did have terrific results-

• 3^rd x 2025 DPWT Tour Championships
• 1^st x 2025 DPWT Bahrain Championships
• 3^rd x 2025 DPWT Dubai desert classic
• T14 x 2024 DPWT Tour Championships (same as grand final in PGA)
• 1^st x 2024 DPWT European Open
• 2^nd x 2024 DPWT Mauritius Open
• T4 x 2024 ISPS Handa Australian Open
• T14 x 2023 Alred Dunhill Links
• T17 x 2023 The OPEN Championships
• 3^rd x 2022 DPWT Alfred Chanmpiosnhips

There are other good results, and they were concentrated from 2024 to now but he shines on links style courses & most of his events in 2026 were on LIV, he has been good without winning but of notice is his last 3 events have been his best on that tour in 2026.

• T5 x LIV Indianapolis
• T11 x LIV New York
• T7 x LIV United Kingdom

He also made it through in both majors he played in for the full 4 days of 76 holes. A closer dive into his strengths on LIV-

LIV tour

• 7th x Fairways hit @ 65.63% driving accuracy (441/672)
• 3rd x greens in regulation @ 73.15% (632/864)
• 56th x putting avg @ 1.67 per round (1439 GIR putts)
• 34^th x birdies avg 3.83 per round (184 birdies in total)
• 38th x scrambling @ 59.91% (139/232) par or better

LC is one of the better wedge & iron players, I took an aerial tour of the course where it takes you up the fairway of each hole, some of the greens are very small AND HAVE SOME WICKED UNDULATIONS AROUND THEM, on LIV tour he hits +70% of greens which the better approach players should be able to take advantage of the tight smaller greens.

Hopefully LC does not try too hard though, let it come when it does as I am looking forward to seeing how he competes at +$130, he is our VALE player this week.

LC opened around $100 on betfair but I watched him slowly drift to $110 then $120 and even whilst the summary was typed up he was $130 (only $39 to be matched) with $140k in the pool, even though we like him always try for more, I would be starting @ $200 and working back, on current odds offered $150-$160 is possible.

Bet365 @ $81

Odds of $120 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:43pm

What PGT sent out for TO when selected @ PGA RBC Canadian Open @ $220.

PGA RBC Canada Open

The Dane was on our radars in 2025 & this 8 x DPWT winner & member of Ryder Cup in 2018 should have put his first PGA win in the bag by now.

His start to 2026 was sound with good efforts at the early DPWY events where he finished-

• T10 @ DPWT Hero Dubai desert classic
• T7 @ DPWT Dubai Invitational

Due to his results, he earned his 2026 PGA card and went straight into 2 cuts before finding a T40 @ PGA Cognizant before another 2 cuts followed.

I kept muttering to myself maybe he needed to return to Europe to pick up some confidence, but he finally showed a bit of gumption to make 4 straight PGA cuts with his best effort a T14 @ PGA Texas Children’s Open.

Normally a better wedge & iron player he is average in putting but he also has 21 of his last 25 events in positive stroke gained Off the Tee, this bears close watching.

2026 PGA

• 78^th x SG: Total
• 89^th x SG: T2G
• 62^nd x SG: OTT
• 98^th x SG: APG
• 88^th x SG: ARG
• 104^th x SG: PUT
• 126^th x DA @ 54.40%
• 87^th x GIR @ 64.88%
• 5/9 cuts made in 2026 for 55.5%
• 4 cuts made in his last 4 events

Normally we do want players to sit around that 70% strike rate for making cuts as it is imperative to get as many in for the final 36 holes than ever before in these non-signature events.

The fact remains this Dane has still won 8 in Europe where 25% of this field are yet to win anywhere so we like to keep an eye on players and as his confidence is growing, he should be suited around TPC Toronto, he needs to start well after opening around $180 on betfair there is plenty of $220, I would suggest closer to $300 is a fair price considering he has no T15 finishes in his last 4 events. In other words, he should drift in the eyes of punters.

Amgen Irish Open

After making our PGT 130 player database & despite not winning the Fane has still maintained his place in our roster.

This week in Ireland he is shooting to make his 5^th straight cut after missing the cut in 4 straight events from middle of June to late July 2026, TO looked much better at his last event the T9 @ DPWT British Masters.

To our eye it looks like he has turned the corner and now he is achieving better than 70% in all strokes gained metrics that PGT measure he can have a cheeky event in Ireland.

TO opened around $90 on betfair late Monday night (AEST) & there is plenty of $120 available now on betfair. Not many analysts select the Dane, so we expect at least $150 on betfair.

Bet365 @ $71 is much shorter, it is typical of mainstream bookmakers especially when players are +$100, we have also shared often that never be shy of trying to get matched for much greater, I would even suggest +$250 and work your way back.

Odds of $120 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:44pm

Last week he did flash on day 2

What we sent out for the DPWT Omega European Championships-

The South African has long been one of or picks on the odd occasion we venture into the DPWT events, he is very hit & miss but he has won 3 x on DPWT & he is showing us glimpses in 2 of the 4 days he competes, his best recent finish was a T13 @ Danish Open where again his inconsistent day would matter.

Throughout 2026 though he has had mainly T40 results (12 in total) with 7 of the 12 in T25 so he would be what we call a “fringe” player if on the PGA tour, they are often thereabouts and may have even been a leader for 1 day but they consistently fade.

What we have seen of BS in his last 3 events is his game nearly clicking.

British Masters

• 49th x birdies @ 3.75 per round
• 28th x par 3 scoring @ 2.92
• 89th x par 4 scoring @ 4.13
• 3^rd x par 5 scoring @ 4.17
• 53rd x SG: T2G
• 114^th x SG: APG
• 58th x GIR @ 66.67%
• 61st x Putts per GIR @ 1.79

Like another of our pick his T30 @ British Masters a good result considering he was 114^th in strokes gained approach, he lost -0.67 shots on avg per round.

It matters, but if he can improve this by 50% then his figures improve.

He is the 1^st of our outsiders, BS has already won 3 x so his best is good enough, for what we have seen with our own eyes it is worth having 1 unit to find out if our outsider has what it takes, after opening around $120 on betfair you can now get close to 3 x his price around $330.

Well worth a speculative view but try for +$500, there has been no money and again try in very small increments and work back if you must, betfair is a very patient process, bet365 have BS @ $141.

Amgen Irish Open

The best of what he did last week was his 20^th in SG: T2G @ +1.28 strokes per round, he did come out on day 2 with a 63 (-7) he shot 10 birdies in that round, but 3 bogeys bought him back to the field.

Had he managed to stay @ -10 he would have broken the course record, so close.

Some of his tee shots were as bad as Thomas Detry, 2 of the drives from BS had me shaking my head and “saying really” they were terrible shots from a prof who has won 3 on this tour.

His 4 days were 69, 63, 69, 69 for -10 & T23 result.

We have been following him and sure it would require at least 3 of the 4 days to click but he now has 3 x T30 results from his last 4 and there have been parts of his game that to the eye are getting better, you see more from the visual than what stats tell you.

Currently ranked 106^th in R2D (race to Dubai) the TOUR championships with only 7 events left before those high enough start in the 1^st week of November at the playoff events.

We are expecting some surprising results in at least 50% of those 7 events, after opening around $260 on betfair he quickly drifted to $300 before now settling around $360 on betfair ($26 available) with the next tier down @ $310 ($48 on offer).

Last week he belied his drifting price of $330, I would try and get matched for $500 and work back, nobody that I have read has tipped him, he is ready to click soon & his confidence has to be the best it has been for a while with those 3 good results from his last 4.

Bet365 @ $301

Odds of $360 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:48pm- it changes constantly from $240 to $360 but confident it is $340-$360. Will monitor closely & if price does not drift to $360 we are seeing will adjust accordingly if he wins.

We have selected DB previously & I had to go a fair bit back to find him but it was at the DPWT Alfred Dunhill Championships in December 2025, he was selected for a Win @ $36 & T5 @ $7.80, the player just ahead of him & tipped by PGT was Thriston Lawrence!

Fast forward into 2026

DB will be playing the DP World tour Championship as he is ranked @ #18 so he should be playing stress free golf.

He is our SPECULATOR play not because he is currently around $360 on betfair but he has also been cut in 5 of his last 6 events, he was okay @ DPWT Danish Open & I categorise him similarly to Lawrence (mood wise), he is so hot and cold the south African, he did not surprise me by winning last week, all his wins have come on that course, I actually thought he would lose it at some point, the chasers just were not good enough including Paul Casey who really should have nailed him as he had 4 or 5 holes up his sleeve, the veteran could not get it done.

This Englishman is only 27 yrs of age and has won 3 x DPWT + he did have some fine form in the back end of 2025 into early 2026 & he did win the DPWT Joburg Open.

He will just need to clean up his around green play, he has been better than okay off the tee, good on approach and even around the green not that bad, it is his putting where in the last 8 events has been losing strokes in putting.

Last week in Switzerland he opened with a 67 (-3) very passable then on day 2 he was +1 (71) and missed the cut but a deeper dive into the Speculator for Amgen Irish Open we find-

2026 DPWT stats

• 39^th x Driving Accuracy @ 62.02% the tour average is 58.49%
• 39th x Driving Distance @ 304.44 (Yards) tour avg @ 300.51
• 34^th x GIR @ 69.57% & tour avg is @ 66.91%
• 71st x Putts Per Gir @ 1.78
• 122^nd x Average Putts Per Round @ 29.65 with tour avg @ 29.34
• 67^th x Stroke Average @ 70.51 & tour avg is @ 70.83

His 2026 stats tell us exactly what we have advised, it is his putting that has let him down, the rest of his game going a okay.

I have seen $380 & $400 on betfair earlier today (Tuesday night) but currently he is around $380 on betfair now ($27 to be matched) but seeing this pom has been cut in 5 of his last 6 he honestly should be +$500.

He only needs to solve the putting problem & we have seen it most weekends that any player can run hot with the flat stick, even as the analysis is being typed up I would even try a few bob @ $1000, give it a few hours then $750 (repeat) then come back to $600 & $500 and so on.

The selection is not for a “FLUKE” result, we offer the reasons why at any odds, again DB just needs to solve his putting woes & at 1 unit at very big odds it is worth the risk to reward scenario.

Bet365 @ $226

Odds of $360 updated from betfair on 9/9/26 @ 1:52pm- it changes constantly from $280 to $360 even a high of $380 in minutes but confident he sits in $340-$360. Will monitor closely & if price does not drift to $360 we are seeing will adjust accordingly if he wins.

Markets are moving all the time on betfair when more money comes into the pool, I start the start from Tuesday so do not want to keep editing 10-12 times before public release..........confirming always aim higher and work your way back & if you accept a price much lower the first time on betfair it is very hard to then get matched for much higher, you are telling others you have accepted the lower price- it is peer to peer remember!