| Dan Brown |
Win |
28/1(+2800) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
One of the more proven players on Links courses and hailing from England he grew up playing throughout England, Scotland & Wales.
He is no stranger to us as we have previously tipped him on links courses and although not winning when selected, he has been very competitive with 4 x Top 10s-
- 2nd x DPWT Spain Open (beaten in a playoff) to Marco Penge @ -15
- T9 x Amgen Irish Open with -10 with 67, 75, 66, 70
- T8 x Betfred Masters with 71, 69, 73, 66
- 1st x BMW International Open with -22
His win in Germany @ BMW International above he started safely with a 70 before improving on day 2 with 65, day 3 with 65 and finishing strongly with a 66.
In his wake were recent winners on tour such as Reitan, Penge, Puig, Neergaard-Petersen, Brown has shown that he should have won a few times more with the playoff loss and has been more consistent through2025 than 80% of this line up.
He was ranked highly enough to play in the final 2 events on the DPWT where he was-
- T17 @ ABU Dhabi HSBC Championships with -17
- T45 @ DPWT Tour Championships (Final) was -2 but he had a final 76 final round.
He is a player that has often succumbs to various injuries whether it be his withdrawal from due to his neck (Austrian Open) or knee pain @ Singapore Open & his latest was from the Alfred Dunhill back in early October, he has played in 3 straight events since which is a big positive for his health.
His strong showings @ links courses combined with overall strong T2G play such as-
- 9 of his last 13 events he has had Positive SG: Total
He is one of the more stronger players around most SG metrics with his all round play & he deserves to sit lowly priced in this market but @ $28 currently on betfair after opening around $24 mostly he is better value IMO than Ayora or Parry (defending Champion) & as much as Jayden Schaper won last week off the back of a good 2nd not many players (extremely low %) win 2 x DPWT events in a row so $9 currently for Schaper is again IMO ridiculously bad unders.
Happy to take $28 and drifting for Brown.
|
| Alex Fitzpatrick |
Win |
48/1(+4800) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Another Englishman joins 4 players from England well in the markets.
His current odds of $48 which is a reasonable drift from $38 he opened on betfair as he was around $45 for the BMW Australian PGA Open in late November before starting around $55 @ Crown Australian Open the week later @ Melbourne.
He had differing results in Australia as in Queensland he was good with his T19 yet in Melbourne he was a T65 which does not really explain the firm odds in Mauritius.
The younger brother of Matthew Fitzpatrick has yet to emulate his older brothers resume but there have been strong glimpses to how he can play with high results in-
- T3 @ DPWT India Open with -18 after rounds of 69, 67, 67, 67.
- T9 @ DPWT Spain Open with -10 after rounds of 71, 67, 68, 68
Of note in Spain is Daniel Brown finishing 5 shots ahead in that playoff loss but also note he tied with Jon Rahm & a recent winner in David Puig (Australia) also his -18 in India around a course where many struggled including Top 20 OWGR players like Hovland, Harman, Rory, Griffin.
That -18 in India wins most events on the DPWT so unlucky really but in his last 25 events he has finished in the Top 30 in 50% including 8 in the Top 20.
More noted for his ability around greens he is handy with the putter & was T5 in Spain & India in most SG: Metrics & in his 2 events in Australia-
- 17th x SG: APG in Queensland
- 19th x Stroke Avg with 68.75 which will serve him well in Mauritius
- 16th x Par 5 scoring with 4.50
- 2nd x Driving Accuracy @ 89.29% fairways found (very high)
- 7th in T2G
- 17% GIR
I think with AF deliberately missing South Africa for the lovely holiday vibe in Mauritius is a good thing and he will be able to factor in his usually consistent overall play to feature, I would see if you can get matched for closer to $60 before Tee off but he is still searching for his first DPWT Win after winning on the Challenge tour in 2023, British Challenge.
|
| Tom Vaillant |
Win |
46/1(+4600) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
This Frenchman unlike his fellow countryman Martin Couvra is yet to win on the DPWT however has won x 2 events in the Alps tour & has contended numerous times in Europe in 2025 with his highest finish being in the-
- T13 x DPWT India Championships
He arrives fresh for Mauritius after bypassing the last 2 weeks in South Africa, but he did play well in Australia in both Queensland & Victoria with-
- T30 x Crown Australia -4 with 73, 67, 70 & 70
- T14 x BWN Australian PGA Championships -10 with 70, 64, 70, 70
TV does bring his usual greens play and stronger putting to Mauritius having-
- 14 of his last 16 events in positive SG: PUT
- +50% in positives Strokes gained in SG: ARG the other 50% -0.15 to 0.51 lost
At 24 he is a talent and does bring now 11 of his last 12 events he has made the CUT with Mauritius aiming to be his 7th straight. I have watched him throughout 2025 and unlike the 2 recent Australian events there are no Top 25 OWGR players here so he should be able to compete in the Top 10 throughout. He was also-
- T7 x SG: PUT in Queensland
- 4th in GIR with a high 79.17% greens found
He has also led a few times in the last 24 months with the most recent leading after 18 holes @ BMA PGA Championships in mid-September and back in February 2024 he led after 18 holes @ DPWT Bahrain Championships, he can start fast which is our hope here.
TV has been firm in betfair markets opening @ $42 win and currently out to $46, keep in mind he is 12th in win markets with many players higher in odds have won multiple times on the DPWT tour so we are taking fair odds based on his ability not proven wins.
|
| Brandon Stone |
Win |
60/1(+6000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
South African Stone has now won 3 events on the DPWT and we have picked him twice previously in 2024 & 2025 & he is well known for his driving ability OTT but in majority of 2025 he has focused on lifting his Iron play and one metric in SG: PUT where he has been known to lose 2- 3 strokes per event.
After missing the CUT in February 2 weeks in a row he quickly improved into 2 x local DPWT events being a T16 @ South Africa Open & a T30 @ Joburg Open.
After travelling to India for the Hero Indian Open he was very in contention in late March with a strong result of-
- T6 @ DPWT Hero Indian Open
From the South African Open in early March to Austrian Open in Early June in the 8 events he made the CUT in 7 including 6 straight events, he then missed 2 straight CUTS in June before rebounding for a surprise T14 @ BMW International Open in Germany won by Daniel Brown.
After watching him in his next 11 events he made the CUT in 8 with 6 of those resulting in Top 40 finishes but it is important to note I have watched 7 videos/interviews with BS in the last 3 months, and he does explain he has been experimenting on how to improve his play.
It is a slow transition but in those 11 events mentioned above he has now-
- Minus in SG- PUT from a low of -0.34 strokes to as much as -3.20 strokes (CUT)
- Positive SG: APG in 9 of last 11
- Positive SG: ARG in 10 of last 11
Stone has never had any problems with his driving as he is now 18 of 25 in +SG: OTT and he missed those 2 CUTS in mid to late October before returning to a challenge tour event and last week he was much better @ Royal Johannesburg.
Last week he was T23 & he started as low as $65 off only reasonable form but I liked what he showed us-
- 3rd x SG: OTT with +1.39 stroker per round
- 22nd in Driving Accuracy with 63.41% of fairways found
- 10th in Driving distance with 328.67 yards on Avg
- 11th x SG: T2G
- 12th in GIR with 72.22%
- 16th x SG: ARG
There were other good metrics such as 7th in par 4 scoring & even 31st in par 5 scoring which sat him in the top half of the field, I just get the feel he will take plenty of confidence from last week and he is expected to play well in Mauritius @ $60 after opening early around $50 on betfair.
You could try being matched for $75 to $80 which I think is his fair price presently.
|
| Daniel Van Tonder |
Win |
65/1(+6500) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
One player from SAR that backs up from the last 2 weeks in South Africa who was very good last week with a few key SG metrics that will suit this links course.
Last week around Royal Johannesburg he was very noticeable after impressing on the local south African Sunshine tour.
- 1st in par 5 scoring
- 22nd in Driving accuracy with 63.41%
- 18th in SG: OTT
- 10th in SG: T2G so he was not just good in 1 metric giving back in another metric
- 39th in SG: PUT
Although putting was his weakest metric last week he still able to offset that with strong iron play as he found 68.52% GIR & was 1st in sand saves, keeping in mind the short greens are fast on paspalum so placement so you do not roll off the sharp edges will be required.
He went around last week @ $50 & he has already won 3 x DPWT events plus a host on other tours so with most SAR players you would expect consistent results at both local events into Mauritius but DVT is currently $65 on betfair after opening around $50 yet his T14 @ -10 was only 5 shots off the winner.
DVT was a big chance before Day 3 started, his 70 (par) was not too far off the avg which was -2 on day 3 as the event was shortened from 72 holes to 54 holes, never good.
If DVT can keep pace with his 1st in Par 5 scoring with 5 x par 5s then you should expect without considering any bogeys -5 each day, that's a high ask but -4 should be achievable so if he is under -16 over 4 days then he will not figure, I like a few others ahead of him here even at greater odds.
|
| JC Ritchie |
Win |
70/1(+7000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The surging South African has been playing regularly on the Challenge Tour which he boasts-
- 7 x 1sts on the Challenge Tour
- 4 x Wins in the last 14 weeks
- 2 of those wins were back-to-back events in September
I have watched a few interviews how he is much fitter than he ever has been after shedding many kgs 6 months ago which in turn has benefited his mental approach to the game but despite his T32 @ Alfred Dunhill Championships last week he started well with rounds of 66 & 67 before halted play saw a 73 on final day but he was-
- +3.53 strokes gained total on Day 1
- +5.24 strokes gained total on Day 2
- -4.03 strokes lost on final day 3
Despite his final day strokes lost he did have some good stats in his favour & his normally strong Approach to Greens play & around the greens play can come to the fore this week as he was in the Top half of the field last week in-
- 26th in GIR with 70.37% of greens found
- 24th in SG: APG
- 14th in SG: PUT with +1.07 strokes gained per round
- 1st in par 3 scoring with 2.69 shots on avg
We have highlighted the par scoring because the par 3 on this links course is very difficult & much more than last week & JC was good overall with-
- 3rd in Birdies with 6.00 avg per round
- 117th in Bogey with only 4.00 per round
The key to this week will be sticking to par and bogey avoidance.
JC opened around $55 and as of summary is now $70 on betfair to win, that is fair odds considering his recent winning form on another tour and it's only when not if he wins on the DPWT. Top 20 is more his forte.
|
| Eddie Pepperell |
Win |
140/1(+14000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The Englishman had to go back to Qualifying school in late November to get his card for 2026 DPWT events, I watched that event in Spain & to be fair when he started day 6 & keep in mind it was-
It looked highly likely that he would miss a Top 20 spot to secure his 2026 card, well he wrote his own script & went 4 straight birdies on 15, 16, 17 & 18th hole to scrape into the Top 20.
The rest is history.
EP has won 3 events to date with 2 x DPWT & although he was touted as the "NEXT BIG THING" out of England he had really good results prior to 2020 & I guess like so many young players who just do not handle the weight of expectations.
He is my roughie, so if you wanted to skip a player it could be him but many witnessed the emotion after he secured the 2026 card for this tour and a shot of confidence can do wonders for players all around the world.
I have watched him over both 2024 & 2025 & he probably deserves to be closer to $300 to Win but he grew up on links courses & does have-
- -11 on his resume (31) on the front 9 on the "Old course" @ the famous St Andrews at the 2018 Alfred Dunhill links Championship.
That is astonishing but he has had Top 10 finishes on links courses @ Scottish Open as well & despite both his most recent events in Australia did not yield a finish it is important to remember if he was to find form it would be of no surprise it is on a links course.
- He was T9 last year on the other course where he ***led after 18 holes.
Maybe & just maybe he finds his mojo again & he can play and if he can like a few players who suddenly JUST POP up then it is not beyond him.
$140 on betfair is unders and the story is a great one but I have him rated closer to $250 to $300, another player better suited to Top 20 markets but it is the final event & good feel story can emerge.
|
| Dylan Frittelli |
Win |
180/1(+18000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
A winner of this event in 2017 but also a player we know well having successfully tipped him when he won @ $330 DPWT Bahrain Championship in 2024.
A noted long driver of the ball the Links courses will suit especially with the long par holes on 4 & 5 x par 5s, however you still need accuracy because if you find yourself in the native grass rough it can seat into any positive strokes you may have.
Already a winner of 3 on DPWT & he did win on PGA albeit back in 2019 @ John Deere Classic with 2 other Challenge Tour victories, so he is no stranger to winning.
A player I have long followed in the background waiting for the form spark which we watched at the 1st SAR event which was only a pass with his T59 in which he only had 1 positive SG metric, oddly enough it was SG: ARG.
Last week though in Johannesburg I saw a determined player who finished in T14 and his -10 but was a player who needed Day 4 like a few of our selected players for that event, DF though broke par on all 3 days with 68, 67 & 69.
I saw him laughing and enjoying himself off the tee which was good to see so I hope he brings his relaxed attitude with him as last week he was good mainly-
- 17th x SG: OTT
- His accuracy under 50% of fairways found
- 6th in Driving distance with 336.83
- 6th x SG: PUT
- 4 birdies per round, not terrific but stable in 60th he did save shots with-
- 33 bogeys per round for 7th overall
He will need to focus on hitting fairways here! He has been around a while & I have a sneaky feeling he can figure.
Last week he started @ $150 to win so bookmakers think he cannot improve more or less so shop around as $180 is freely on offer on betfair & try getting matched as high as $250 and in between.
|
| Marcel Siem |
Win |
200/1(+20000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
The resident of the Island will be used to the winds that blow in off the Indian Ocean more than most and MS is already a winner of 6 x DP events and has often led over 36 holes before fading late.
In his most recent events and I guess his Achilles heel is his putting, but he did improve in 6 of 7 events from the Soudal Open to Betfred British Masters where he has positive strokes in SG: PUT. It also helped his overall SG: Total in 4 of those 6 events but he did result-
- T8 x Betfred British Masters
- T34 x Genesis Scottish Open (Top OWGR players)
- T58 x BMW International
- T26 X KLM Open
- T5 x Austrian Open
The above is not enlightening but he did have 4 x Top 10 results in 10 events earlier so whatever he found working he can be the "HORSES FOR COURSES" as no doubt has played more holes than any other player seeing he lives on this Island.
I am not reading too much into last week in Johannesburg as he never plays well in South Africa but he can also bob up at the top of leaderboards as he has done throughout 2025, he kicked off last week with a 67 before a terrible shot on 12 meant he had to settle for a 73 (+3) not good but not terrible before bouncing back with his -1 (69).
He finished with a -5 which is a pass.
Maybe we are expecting too much but he led the Betfred British Masters in a deeper field than this after 36 holes with a -9 after a 66 & 69, that effort saw a T8 overall.
Again he is at home and if he starts super fast like we know he can around the current $200 to Win on betfair he can give them something to chase. On His recent form you may want +$300 which on his recent is fair market, anything under $100 is silly odds to accept.
|
| Shubhankar Sharma |
Win |
580/1(+58000) |
1.00 |
LOSS |
Like a few he had to requalify for a 2026 card recently due to average results of late on DPWT, he was earlier $580 which on current form is fair.
His current game something is missing but as shared with The Stig he was actually-
- 1st x SG: APG @ BMW PGA Championships in Queensland
He was selected over in India back in Mid-October off similar stats but in his home country I was expecting him to hit greens, but he was only -0.06 shots off achieving an all green for SG: APG there so it is his sweet spot.
Despite finishing down the field in QLD @ T56 his off the tee play was okay-
- 69% Driving Accuracy- if he hits 70% in Mauritius, I would be happy
- 4th x T2G which blew my mind
- 40th in GIR but he still had 68.06% greens found (big fan of Kazumi Kobori) he found only 61%
- 13th x SG: ARG
So, his finish does not truly reflect how well he played in QLD but if he were to bring similar stats he can figure and be in this a long way, you will not normally get +$500 on a player who is 1st in Strokes gained on Approach to greens.
Go the instinctive gut feel player with strong iron play stats behind him.
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